Jacob A. Frenkel

A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence

This paper deals with the determinants of the exchange rate and develops a monetary view (or more generally, an asset view) of exchange rate determination. The first part traces some of the doctrinal origins of approaches to the analysis of equilibrium exchange rates. The second part examines some of the empirical hypotheses of the monetary approach as well as some features of the efficiency of the foreign exchange markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of expectations in exchange rate determination and a direct observable measure of expectations is proposed. The direct measure of expectations builds on the information that is contained in data from the forward market for foreign exchange. The empirical results are shown to be consistent with the hypotheses of the monetary approach.

Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?

Empirical studies of covered interest arbitrage suggest that the parity condition is not always satisfied and thus implying unexploited profit opportunities. This paper provides a procedure for estimating transaction costs in the markets for foreign exchange and for securities. Allowance for these costs accounts for most of the apparent profit opportunities. It is shown that in addition to transaction costs, demand and supply elasticities in the various markets and lags in executing arbitrage can account for all of the apparent profit opportunities. It is concluded that empirical data are consistent with the interest parity theory and that covered interest arbitrage does not entail unexploited profit opportunities.

Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods

This paper deals with the effects of transaction costs on the efficacy of covered interest arbitrage during three periods: 1962-67, the tranquil peg; 1968-69, the turbulent peg; and 1973-75, the managed float. Several conclusions emerge: (i) during the managed float transaction costs have risen dramatically, (ii) these costs played a similar role in accounting for deviations from parity during the periods of the tranquil peg and the managed float but not during the turbulent peg. Similar conclusions emerge from a time-series analysis of the various exchange rates with the implication that a classification of periods according to the degree of turbulence is preferred to a classification based on the legal arrangement (e.g., pegged or floating rates), and (iii) covered interest arbitrage does not seem to entail unexploited opportunities for profits.

Asset Markets, Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments

Publisher Summary This chapter reviews developments in international monetary economics from the late 1960s through the early 1980s. It discusses that the “monetary approach to the balance of payments” was the economic determinants of the behavior of the balance of payments, especially, the theoretical elaboration and empirical investigation of the dynamic mechanism of balance of payments adjustment. Recent research on macroeconomics, for both closed and open economies, expresses far less confidence in the ability of governments to systematically affect levels of national income and consistently maintain full employment through policy manipulation. The chapter discusses that in earlier work on exchange rate theory, the condition for equilibrium in the flow market for foreign exchange transactions has been regarded as the proximate determinant of the exchange rate. In some analyses, expectations of future exchange rates had an important influence on current exchange rates by affecting speculative capital flows. The chapter also provides modern analysis of the dynamics of balance of payments adjustment under fixed exchange rates beginning with a simple exposition of the key elements of the monetary mechanism of balance of payments adjustment. Finally, the chapter also deals with the theory of flexible exchange rates. The evolution of the international monetary system from a regime of pegged exchange rates into a regime of flexible rates resulted in a renewed interest in the theory of exchange rate determination.

Fiscal Policies in the World Economy

This paper uses a two-country general equilibrium model of the world economy in order to analyze the effects of budget deficits and government spending on world rates of interest, consumption, and international indebtedness. It demonstrates the difference between the effects of fiscal expenditures and tax cuts as well as between the effects of current policies and expected future policies. It is shown that the qualitative effects of fiscal policies depend on whether the country introducing the policies runs a surplus or a deficit in its current account. Following the positive analysis of the short-run and the steady-state effects, the paper concludes with a normative analysis of the welfare implications of budget deficits.

Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Overshooting Hypothesis

In this paper we analyze the determinants of the evolution of ex- change rates within the context of alternative models of exchange rate dynamics. We examine the overshooting hypothesis in models which emphasize differential speeds of adjustment in asset and goods markets as well as in models which emphasize portfolio balance considerations. We show that exchange rate overshooting is not an intrinsic characteristic of the foreign exchange market and that it depends on a set of specific assumptions. We also show that the overshooting is not a characteristic of the assumption of perfect foresight nor does it depend in general on the assumption that goods and asset markets clear at different speeds. As long as the speeds of adjustment in the various markets are less than infinite, the key factor determining the short run effects of a monetary expansion is the degree of capital mobility. When capital is highly mobile, the exchange rate overshoots its long-run value and when capital is relatively immobile the exchange rate undershoots its long-run value. Within the context of the portfolio-balance model we show that the effects of a monetary expansion on the dynamics of exchange rates and in particular on whether exchange rates overshoot or undershoot their equilibrium path depend critically on the specification of asset choice, on the degree of substitution among assets, and on the quality of the various assets in being an inflation hedge, Specifically, when internationally traded goods are a better inflation hedge than nontraded goods, the nominal exchange rate overshoots the domestic price level and conversely.

Inflation and Growth: Alternative Approaches

This paper develops alternative approaches to the principal relationships and results in the analysis of inflation and growth. Rather than derive new propositions, our purpose is primarily to present an accessible and coherent exposition of existing theories. The issue to be analyzed is how alternative rates of inflation affect realvariables, in particular, steady state per capita consumption, real balances, and real capital. To the extent that inflation represents a tax on real balances, the real effects of altering that tax depend on what we assume about the role and nature of money. Conflicting or ambiguous results derived from alternative theories are primarily the reflection of different hypotheses about the functions of money. Since derivation of such hypotheses from microeconomic foundations continues to be a field of current inquiry, any definite conclusions with respect to the real effects of inflation must await the further development and empirical validation of such theories.l Pending such progress we propose to take stock of competing theories of inflation and growth. There are essentially two approaches to the problem. One strand of the literature initiated by Tobin [12] and Johnson [4] assumes a savings function as well as a demand function for real balances and investigates the comparative statics properties of the implied steady state characteristics of the system. In these formulations real balances are alternatively treated as a consumer or a producer good. In the

Inflation and the formation of expectations

Abstract This paper develops a model of expectations which generates paths that are consistent with observations that an acceleration of the monetary growth rate initially raises and eventually lowers real holdings of cash balances. It introduces a two-part expectations hypothesis where individuals are assumed to form expectations about the entire path of the price level and about the short-term inflation rate. Interaction between regressive and extrapolative elements induces a transitory rise in money holdings during the initial phase of inflation as expectations are that the process will reverse itself. Subsequently, as expectations catch up, the decline in desired holdings induces an overshooting of the inflation rate.

Stochastic prices and tests of efficiency of foreign exchange markets

Abstract This paper shows that typical specifications of efficiency tests of foreign exchange markets are strictly valid only when individuals are risk neutral and prices are non-stochastic. Empirically, however, the neglect of these factors is shown to be of little significance.

The Mundell-Fleming Model a Quarter Century Later: A Unified Exposition

The Mundell-Fleming model of international macroeconomics originated in the early 1960s and has been extended during the ensuing quarter century. This paper develops an exposition that integrates the various facets of the model and incorporates its extensions into a unified analytical framework. Attention is given to (1) the distinction between short-run and long-run effects of policies, (2) the implications of debt and tax financing of government expenditures, and (3) the role of the exchange rate regime in this regard. By identifying the key mechanisms operating in the model, the exposition clarifies the models limitations and facilitates comparison with other, more current approaches.