Jacob Gyntelberg

Liquidity in Government Versus Covered Bond Markets

We present findings on the secondary market liquidity of government and covered bonds in Denmark before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. The analysis focuses on wholesale trading in the two markets and is based on a complete transaction level dataset covering November 2007 until end 2011. Overall, our findings suggest that Danish benchmark covered bonds by and large are as liquid as Danish government bonds - including in periods of market stress. Before the financial crisis of 2008, government bonds were slightly more liquid than covered bonds. During the crisis, trading continued in both markets but the government bond market experienced a brief but pronounced decline in market liquidity while liquidity in the covered bond market was more robust - partly reflective of a number of events as well as policy measures introduced in the autumn of 2008. After the crisis, liquidity in the government bond market quickly rebounded and government bonds again became slightly more liquid than covered bonds.

Housing Finance Agencies in Asia

This paper examines the role of government-supported housing finance agencies in Asia. We estimate the size of the government subsidies received by these agencies, and their distribution among households, financial institutions and the agencies themselves. We have three main findings. The level of government support provided to housing finance agencies in Asia varies, but is generally small relative to the economy. The housing finance agencies have transferred most of the benefit of their government support to either households or financial institutions. Agencies that participate directly in primary housing finance markets have been most successful in passing on their government support to households.

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and International Portfolio Rebalancing in Thailand

We present empirical evidence that the Thai baht’s value is driven in part by investors’ cross-border equity portfolio rebalancing decisions. Our results are based on comprehensive datasets of FX and stock market transactions undertaken by nonresident investors in Thailand in 2005 and 2006. Higher returns in the stock market relative to a reference stock market are associated with net sales of equities by these investors and a depreciation of the Thai baht. Net purchases of Thai equities lead to an appreciation of the Thai baht. Foreign investors do not appear to hedge the foreign exchange risk related to their stock market positions.

The Asian Crisis: What Did Local Stock Markets Expect?

In this paper we investigate whether cross-sectional information from local equity markets contained information on devaluation expectations during the Asian crisis. We concentrate on the information content of equity prices as these markets were in general the largest and most liquid at the time and, thus, presumably the best carriers of information. Using an event-study approach for the period leading up to each of the devaluations which occurred during the Asian crisis (namely those of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand), we compare returns in the equity prices of exporting and non-exporting firms. This is based on the assumption that the expectation of a devaluation should help the stock of exporting firms outperform those of non-exporting firms. Overall we do find some evidence supporting this hypothesis, although at different degrees depending on the country. Our second finding is that local equity market prices, as reflected in the different patterns seen for exporters and non-exporters, did to at least to some extent price in the possibility that the Thai devaluation would be followed by other countries in the region.

Arbitrage costs and the persistent non-zero CDS-bond basis: Evidence from intraday euro area sovereign debt markets

We find evidence that in the market for euro area sovereign credit risk, arbitrageurs engage in basis trades between credit default swap (CDS) and bond markets only when the CDS-bond basis exceeds a certain threshold. This threshold effect is likely to reflect costs that arbitrageurs face when implementing trading strategies, including transaction costs and costs associated with committing balance sheet space for such trades. Using a threshold vector error correction model, we endogenously estimate these unknown trading costs for basis trades in the market for euro area sovereign debt. During the euro sovereign credit crisis, we find very high transaction costs of around 190 basis points, compared to around 80 basis points before the crisis. Our results show, that even when markets in times of stress are liquid, the basis can widen as high market volatility makes arbitrage trades riskier, leading arbitrageurs to demand a higher compensation for increased risk. Our findings help explain the persistent non-zero CDS-bond basis in euro area sovereign debt markets and its increase during the last sovereign crisis.

Safe and Liquid Mortgage Bonds: Evidence from the Danish Housing Crash of 2008

This paper shows empirically that match pass-through funding of covered bonds supported by strong creditor rights provides safe and liquid mortgage bonds. Despite a 30% drop in house prices during the 2008 crisis these mortgage bonds remained as liquid as comparable government bonds. The match funding principle effectively eliminates credit risk from the covered bond investors perspective and funding liquidity therefore becomes the main driver of market liquidity. These findings have implications for the treatment of covered bonds in capital regulation and for how to design a robust mortgage bond system without the need for government sponsoring.