Jacqueline M. Hamilton

The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study

We use an updated and extended version of the Hamburg Tourism Model to simulate the effect of development and climate change on tourism. Model extensions are the explicit modelling of domestic tourism and the inclusion of tourist expenditures. We also use the model to examine the impact of sea level rise on tourism demand. Climate change would shift patterns of tourism towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Domestic tourism may double in colder countries and fall by 20% in warmer countries (relative to the baseline without climate change). For some countries international tourism may treble whereas for others it may cut in half. International tourism is more (less) important than is domestic tourism in colder (warmer) places. Therefore, climate change may double tourist expenditures in colder countries, and halve them in warmer countries. In most places, the impact of climate change is small compared to the impact of population and economic growth. The quantitative results are sensitive to parameter choices, but the qualitative pattern is robust.

Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists

The attractiveness of a tourist destination is partly dependent on its environmental and climatic resource base. Climate change can be expected to have an effect on this attractiveness and will subsequently alter patterns of demand. An application of the pooled travel cost model using survey data on the destination choices of German tourists is presented in this study. Data on the climate, beach length and indicators of cultural, natural resource and economic attractiveness of the destination countries are used in the regression analysis. Optimal climate values were calculated and a climate index was used to examine the change in climatic attractiveness under an arbitrary scenario of climate change. It was found that, for European countries during the summer months, there would be an increase in attractiveness. However, the northern European countries become relatively more attractive closing the gap on the currently popular southern European countries.

The Impact Of Climate Change On Tourism And Recreation

Tourism is one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors. Tourism is obviously related to climate, as tourists prefer spending time outdoors and travel to enjoy the sun or landscape. It is therefore surprising that the tourism literature pays little attention to climate and climatic change and it is equally surprising that the climate change impact literature pays little attention to tourism. The number of studies on tourism and climate change is, however, starting to grow. This paper reviews this literature, discussing shortcomings and recent developments in global modeling of tourism flows are presented. The range of methods used and issues studied in the literature is large, and findings are correspondingly diverse. However, all studies agree that climate change matters to tourism and recreation. Future avenues of inquiry are also discussed.

The Effect of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Tourism

Tourism is an industry of primary importance for the world economy. For some countries, tourism is the first source of income and foreign currency, and many local economies heavily depend on tourism. Tourists are sensitive to climate and to climate change, which will affect the relative attractiveness of destinations and hence the motive for international tourists to leave their country of origin. Yet, until recently, the attention devoted by the tourism literature to climate change and by the climate change literature to tourism has been quite limited. This paper is divided in two parts. The first part reviews the literature on the relationship between climate change and tourism. We find that the existing studies have but started unveiling the complexities of this relationship, by means of very heterogeneous approaches and scarcely comparable studies. A comprehensive, coherent quantitative message cannot yet be drawn from the literature. The broad qualitative message is clear, however: climate change will affect tourism, and the consequences for the economy might be wide and pervasive. The second part analyses empirically the relationship between climate characteristics, weather extremes and domestic and international tourism demand across Europe, with a focus on Italy. This study draws on the results on the Italian tourist sector of the WISE project, a multi-sector research project that investigates the impacts of extreme weather events on the socio-economic systems of some European countries by means of both quantitative and qualitative analyses. In general, temperature is the strongest indicator of domestic tourism. The relationship between tourism and temperature is generally positive in the same-month all across Europe, except in winter sports regions. The climate impact depends as well on destination type: for example coastal resorts respond more favourably to summer temperature increases than inland resorts. Moreover, it is not just temperature that counts, but also the expectations about future temperature levels; not just the presence of weather extremes, but also the expectations about their future occurrence. Qualitative results, based on individual surveys, show that during an unusually hot summer day trips are more climate-responsive than short breaks, that short breaks are more climate-responsive than main holidays, and that most people tend not to change plans for their main vacation: those that do change either stay at home or in their own country. On the basis of our literature survey and of our empirical study’s results, the paper concludes by indicating the most urgent gaps to be filled in the knowledge about the relationship between climate change and tourism and by pointing at the most promising directions for further research.

Mediterranean Tourism and Climate Change: Identifying Future Demand and Assessing Destinations’ Vulnerability

This chapter estimates the trends, impacts and responses of Mediterranean tourism, with special emphasis on coastal areas. It presents some part of the work done by two research lines (Economic impacts, Induced policies), namely scenarios for future tourism flows (regional and national scales) and a method for assessing vulnerability of local destinations.