Jai Vaze

Experimental study of pollutant accumulation on an urban road surface

An understanding of pollutant characteristics on impervious surfaces is essential to estimate pollutant washoff characteristics and to design methods to minimise the impacts of pollutants on the environment. This paper presents data on surface pollutant characteristics on an urban road surface in Melbourne, Australia, from samples collected over a 36 day period. The data indicate that buildup over the dry days occurs relatively quickly after a rain event, but slows down after several days as redistribution occurs. The surface pollutant also becomes finer over the dry days as it is disintegrated. The washoff of surface pollutant is dependent on the rainfall and runoff characteristics, but the results here show that common storms only remove a small proportion of the total surface pollutant load. The data also show that street sweeping may have an adverse impact on pollutant washoff because the street sweeper releases the finer material but only removes some of them, making the fine sediment available for washoff by the next storm. The data also show that most of the nutrients are attached to the finer sediments, and to effectively reduce nutrient loads in particulates, treatment facilities must be able to remove the finer particles (down to 50 μm for TP and down to 10 μm for TN), and not just the total sediment or suspended solid load.

Impact of DEM accuracy and resolution on topographic indices

Topography is an important land-surface characteristic that affects most aspects of the water balance in a catchment, including the generation of surface and sub-surface runoff; the flow paths followed by water as it moves down and through hillslopes and the rate of water movement. All of the spatially explicit fully distributed hydraulic and hydrological models use topography (represented by the DEM of the area modelled) to derive bathymetry. DEM is also used to derive some other key information critical in fully distributed hydraulic and hydrological models. With high-resolution DEMs such as LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) becoming more readily available and also with the advancements in computing facilities which can handle these large data sets, there is a need to quantify the impact of using different resolution DEMs (e.g. 1 m against 10 m or 25 m) on hydrologically important variables and the loss of accuracy and reliability of the results as we move from high resolution to coarser resolution. The results from statistical analysis carried out to compare field survey elevations with the LiDAR DEM-derived elevations, show that there are small differences between the two data sets but LiDAR DEM is a reasonably good representation of the actual ground surface compared to other commonly used DEMs derived from contour maps. The results from the analysis clearly show that the accuracy and resolution of the input DEM have serious implications on the values of the hydrologically important spatial indices derived from the DEM. The result also indicates that the loss of details by re-sampling the higher resolution DEM to coarser resolution are much less compared to the details captured in the commonly available coarse resolution DEM derived from contour maps. Topographic indices based on contour derived DEMs should be used with caution and where available, the higher resolution DEM should be used instead of the coarse resolution one.

Estimating the Relative Uncertainties Sourced from GCMs and Hydrological Models in Modeling Climate Change Impact on Runoff

AbstractThis paper assesses the relative uncertainties from GCMs and from hydrological models in modeling climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia. Five lumped conceptual daily rainfall–runoff models are used to model runoff using historical daily climate series and using future climate series obtained by empirically scaling the historical climate series informed by simulations from 15 GCMs. The majority of the GCMs project a drier future for this region, particularly in the southern parts, and this is amplified as a bigger reduction in the runoff. The results indicate that the uncertainty sourced from the GCMs is much larger than the uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff models. The variability in the climate change impact on runoff results for one rainfall–runoff model informed by 15 GCMs (an about 28%–35% difference between the minimum and maximum results for mean annual, mean seasonal, and high runoff) is considerably larger than the variability in the results between the five rainfall–...

Multi-decadal trends in global terrestrial evapotranspiration and its components

Evapotranspiration (ET) is the process by which liquid water becomes water vapor and energetically this accounts for much of incoming solar radiation. If this ET did not occur temperatures would be higher, so understanding ET trends is crucial to predict future temperatures. Recent studies have reported prolonged declines in ET in recent decades, although these declines may relate to climate variability. Here, we used a well-validated diagnostic model to estimate daily ET during 1981–2012, and its three components: transpiration from vegetation (Et), direct evaporation from the soil (Es) and vaporization of intercepted rainfall from vegetation (Ei). During this period, ET over land has increased significantly (p < 0.01), caused by increases in Et and Ei, which are partially counteracted by Es decreasing. These contrasting trends are primarily driven by increases in vegetation leaf area index, dominated by greening. The overall increase in Et over land is about twofold of the decrease in Es. These opposing trends are not simulated by most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and highlight the importance of realistically representing vegetation changes in earth system models for predicting future changes in the energy and water cycle.

An integrated modelling framework for regulated river systems

Management of regulated water systems has become increasingly complex due to rapid socio-economic growth and environmental changes in river basins over recent decades. This paper introduces the Source Integrated Modelling System (IMS), and describes the individual modelling components and how they are integrated within it. It also describes the methods employed for tracking and assessment of uncertainties, as well as presenting outcomes of two case study applications. Traditionally, the mathematical tools for water resources planning and management were generally designed for sectoral applications with, for example, groundwater being modelled separately from surface water. With the increasing complexity of water resources management in the 21st century those tools are becoming outmoded. Water management organisations are increasingly looking for new generation tools that allow integration across domains to assist their decision making processes for short-term operations and long-term planning; not only to meet current needs, but those of the future as well. In response to the need for an integrated tool in the water industry in Australia, the eWater Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) has developed a new generation software package called the Source IMS. The Source IMS is an integrated modelling environment containing algorithms and approaches that allow defensible predictions of water flow and constituents from catchment sources to river outlets at the sea. It is designed and developed to provide a transparent, robust and repeatable approach to underpin a wide range of water planning and management purposes. It can be used to develop water sharing plans and underpin daily river operations, as well as be used for assessments on water quantity and quality due to changes in: i) land-use and climate; ii) demands (irrigation, urban, ecological); iii) infrastructure, such as weirs and reservoirs; iv) management rules that might be associated with these; and v) the impacts of all of the above on various ecological indices. The Source IMS integrates the existing knowledge and modelling capabilities used by different state and federal water agencies across Australia and has additional functionality required for the river system models that will underpin the next round of water sharing plans in the country. It is built in a flexible modelling environment to allow stakeholders to incorporate new scientific knowledge and modelling methods as they evolve, and is designed as a generic tool suitable for use across different jurisdictions. Due to its structure, the platform can be extended/customised for use in other countries and basins, particularly where there are boundary issues.

Rainfall-runoff Modelling across Southeast Australia: Datasets, Models and Results

Abstract This study describes a daily rainfall, potential evaporation and streamflow data set compiled for the important water resources region of southeast Australia, and the application of six commonly used lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models to estimate daily runoff across the region. The daily climate data set and the daily modelled runoff are available from 1895 to 2008 at 0.05° grid resolution across the region. The modelling exercise indicates that the rainfall-runoff models can generally be calibrated to reproduce the daily observed streamflow (for 232 catchments in the high runoff generation areas), and the regionalisation results indicate that the use of optimised parameter values from a gauged catchment nearby can model runoff reasonably well in the ungauged areas. There are differences between the six models, but they are relatively small when used to describe aggregated results across large regions.

Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

Abstract Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013, during which the results of a common testing experiment were presented. Prior to the workshop, the participants had been invited to test their own models on a common set of basins showing varying conditions specifically set up for the workshop. All these basins experienced changes, either in physical characteristics (e.g. changes in land cover) or climate conditions (e.g. gradual temperature increase). This article presents the motivations and organization of this experiment—that is—the testing (calibration and evaluation) protocol and the common framework of statistical procedures and graphical tools used to assess the model performances. The basins datasets are also briefly introduced (a detailed description is provided in the associated Supplementary material).

Flood inundation modelling

This paper reviews state-of-the-art empirical, hydrodynamic and simple conceptual models for determining flood inundation. It explores their advantages and limitations, highlights the most recent advances and discusses future directions. It addresses how uncertainty is analysed in this field with the various approaches and identifies opportunities for handling it better. The aim is to inform scientists new to the field, and help emergency response agencies, water resources managers, insurance companies and other decision makers keep up-to-date with the latest developments. Guidance is provided for selecting the most suitable method/model for solving practical flood related problems, taking into account the specific outputs required for the modelling purpose, the data available and computational demands. Multi-model, multi-discipline approaches are recommended in order to further advance this research field. This paper reviews state-of-the-art flood inundation models.It explores their advantages and limitations.It highlights the most recent advances and discusses future directions.It addresses how uncertainty is analysed and identifies opportunities for handling it better.

Observed hydrologic non-stationarity in far south-eastern Australia: implications for modelling and prediction

The term ‘hydrologic non-stationarity’ has been used to describe many things, ranging from different climate-runoff relationships evident in different periods within a long hydroclimate time series to changes in hydroclimate characteristics and dominant hydrological processes in an increasingly warmer and higher CO2 world. This paper presents several examples of observed ‘hydrologic non-stationarity’ in far south-eastern Australia exposed by the prolonged 1997–2009 “Millennium” drought, focussing on the implications of this hydrologic non-stationarity on hydrological modelling and prediction. The runoff decline during the drought was unprecedented in the instrumental historical record. It was caused not only by the lower annual rainfall, but also by changes in other climate characteristics (lack of any high rainfall years, change in rainfall seasonality and higher temperatures) and dominant hydrological processes (reduced surface–groundwater connection and farm dams intercepting proportionally more water during dry periods). Hydrological models developed and calibrated against pre-1997 data cannot predict adequately the flow volumes and runoff characteristics during the drought. However, as the Millennium drought has exposed these extreme conditions, models can now be developed and calibrated to represent these, as well other conditions observed in the instrumental historical records (i.e., hydrologic non-stationarity that has already been observed). Such models should be able to satisfactorily predict the near-term runoff which will be influenced mainly by the rainfall inputs. However, further into the future, runoff will be increasingly influenced by higher temperatures and changed ecohydrological processes under higher CO2. Reliably modelling these is difficult because of the complex interactions and feedbacks between many variables and processes in a future environment not seen in the past (i.e., hydrologic non-stationarity that has not been observed).

Predicting the effects of landuse change on water and salt balance—a case study of a catchment affected by dryland salinity in NSW, Australia

An integrated and comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments is presented. The framework is applied to the Mandagery Creek catchment (1688 km2), located in the south-eastern part of Australia. The catchment is affected by dryland salinity and the effects of landuse, climate, topography, soils and geology on water and salt balance are examined. Landuse change scenarios designed to: (a) increase the perennial content of the pastures and crop rotations and (b) increase the current remnant native woody vegetation with additional tree cover are investigated to determine the level of intervention required to develop ameliorative strategies. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in water flow and salt export are also estimated.