Jaideep S Oberoi

Home equity release for long-term care financing: an improved market structure and pricing approach

Abstract Home equity release products have been promoted as a potential solution to residential long-term care costs for the elderly. Lower than expected utilisation of home equity release loans has prompted efforts to better model and price the no-negative-equity-guarantee (NNEG) built into the contracts, but loan rates are still widely perceived by homeowners as being unattractive. We propose the introduction of a new adjustable rate loan based on a regional house price index, with the NNEG being borne by a specially created intermediary. The proposed approach allows us to directly address and separately price the basis risk between individual house price returns and index returns. In addition, it offers the opportunity to create securities based on residential real estate that would be attractive to a wider class of investors. The alternative risk-sharing mechanism creates a more transparent and simple pricing structure for the loans. We then use house sales data to demonstrate the approach. We find in our sample that it would be possible to make higher loans than seen in previous literature using standard roll-up contracts. In the most favourable scenario for our simulations, the maximum loan is 89% of the appraised home value if the loan is advanced as a lump sum and 95% if the loan is advanced in instalments.

Demography and Inflation: An International Study

Changes in the relative share of different age groups in the population may present inflationary, disinflationary, or even deflationary tendencies. We find evidence that increases in the share of the very old (age 80 and older) may be associated with deflation. The analysis is based on an international dataset over a long period. Classifying age groups into young, working, younger old, and older old, we find that the shares of the young and the younger old groups are inflationary, while those of the working group are disinflationary and those of the very old group seemingly deflationary.

Value at Risk Models with Long Memory Features and Their Economic Performance

We study alternative specifications of conditional quantile models that are used to estimate Value at Risk (VaR). Our proposed specifications include the incorporation of a slow moving component in the quantile process, along with recent aggregate returns as regressors. We consider a range of criteria with the aim of identifying models with improved performance in both statistical and financial terms. These criteria include the potential to lower transaction costs and realized losses in excess of the VaR on exceedance days. We find that for many assets, the proposed specifications lead to improved performance.