Jaime Arredondo

'Beating the news' with EMBERS: forecasting civil unrest using open source indicators

We describe the design, implementation, and evaluation of EMBERS, an automated, 24x7 continuous system for forecasting civil unrest across 10 countries of Latin America using open source indicators such as tweets, news sources, blogs, economic indicators, and other data sources. Unlike retrospective studies, EMBERS has been making forecasts into the future since Nov 2012 which have been (and continue to be) evaluated by an independent T&E team (MITRE). Of note, EMBERS has successfully forecast the June 2013 protests in Brazil and Feb 2014 violent protests in Venezuela. We outline the system architecture of EMBERS, individual models that leverage specific data sources, and a fusion and suppression engine that supports trading off specific evaluation criteria. EMBERS also provides an audit trail interface that enables the investigation of why specific predictions were made along with the data utilized for forecasting. Through numerous evaluations, we demonstrate the superiority of EMBERS over baserate methods and its capability to forecast significant societal happenings.

Analyzing Civil Unrest through Social Media

Mining and analyzing data from social networks such as Twitter can reveal new insights into the causes of civil disturbances, including trigger events and the role of political entrepreneurs and organizations in galvanizing public opinion.

Implementing Mexico's 'narcomenudeo' drug law reform: a mixed methods assessment of early experiences among people who inject drugs

In 2009, Mexico decriminalized small-scale drug possession, instituting drug treatment diversion in lieu of incarceration. To assess initial reform impact, our mixed methods study integrated a structured questionnaire with in-depth interviews assessing legal knowledge, police encounters, and risk behaviors among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana. Between 2010 and 2013, we recruited 737 adults; 32 participated in qualitative interviews. Only 11% reported being aware of the reform; virtually none experienced its operational components. Narratives underscored the law’s irrelevance to PWID; 699 (98%) saw police practice as generally inconsistent with formal law. Instead of treatment diversion, police encounters were associated with risk behaviors, including syringe sharing (odds ratio [OR] = 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09-1.46) and polydrug use (OR = 2.11; 95% CI = 1.38-3.22). As drug policy reforms gain global momentum, ancillary structural interventions are needed to improve their public health benefit.

A Police Education Programme to Integrate Occupational Safety and HIV Prevention: Protocol for a Modified Stepped-Wedge Study Design with Parallel Prospective Cohorts to Assess Behavioural Outcomes

Introduction Policing practices are key drivers of HIV among people who inject drugs (PWID). This paper describes the protocol for the first study to prospectively examine the impact of a police education programme (PEP) to align law enforcement and HIV prevention. PEPs incorporating HIV prevention (including harm reduction programmes like syringe exchange) have been successfully piloted in several countries but were limited to brief pre–post assessments; the impact of PEPs on policing behaviours and occupational safety is unknown. Objectives Proyecto ESCUDO (SHIELD) aims to evaluate the efficacy of the PEP on uptake of occupational safety procedures, as assessed through the incidence of needle stick injuries (NSIs) (primary outcome) and changes in knowledge of transmission, prevention and treatment of HIV and viral hepatitis; attitudes towards PWID, adverse behaviours that interfere with HIV prevention and protective behaviours (secondary outcomes). Methods/analysis ESCUDO is a hybrid type I design that simultaneously tests an intervention and an implementation strategy. Using a modified stepped-wedge design involving all active duty street-level police officers in Tijuana (N=∼1200), we will administer one 3 h PEP course to groups of 20–50 officers until the entire force is trained. NSI incidence and geocoded arrest data will be assessed from department-wide de-identified data. Of the consenting police officers, a subcohort (N=500) will be randomly sampled from each class to undergo pre-PEP and post-PEP surveys with a semiannual follow-up for 2 years to assess self-reported NSIs, attitudes and behaviour changes. The impact on PWIDs will be externally validated through a parallel cohort of Tijuana PWIDs. Ethics/dissemination Research ethics approval was obtained from the USA and Mexico. Findings will be disseminated through open access to protocol materials through the Law Enforcement and HIV Network. Trial registration number NCT02444403.

Examining the Spatial Distribution of Law Enforcement Encounters among People Who Inject Drugs after Implementation of Mexico’s Drug Policy Reform

In 2009, Mexico decriminalized the possession of small amounts of illicit drugs for personal use in order to refocus law enforcement resources on drug dealers and traffickers. This study examines the spatial distribution of law enforcement encounters reported by people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico to identify concentrated areas of policing activity after implementation of the new drug policy. Mapping the physical location of law enforcement encounters provided by PWID (n = 461) recruited through targeted sampling, we identified hotspots of extra-judicial encounters (e.g., physical/sexual abuse, syringe confiscation, and money extortion by law enforcement) and routine authorized encounters (e.g., being arrested or stopped but not arrested) using point density maps and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic calculated at the neighborhood-level. Approximately half of the participants encountered law enforcement more than once in a calendar year and nearly one third of these encounters did not result in arrest but involved harassment or abuse by law enforcement. Statistically significant hotspots of law enforcement encounters were identified in a limited number of neighborhoods located in areas with known drug markets. At the local-level, law enforcement activities continue to target drug users despite a national drug policy that emphasizes drug treatment diversion rather than punitive enforcement. There is a need for law enforcement training and improved monitoring of policing tactics to better align policing with public health goals.

Mexico's drug policy reform: Cutting edge success or crisis in the making?

In August 2009, Mexicos federal government took the bold step of passing a law partially decriminalizing possession of small quantities of drugs such as cannabis, cocaine, amphetamines, and heroin (Consejo Nacional contras las Adicciones, 2010). Concurrently, the law (known as the ‘ley de narcomenudeo’) also mandates that individuals found to be in possession of these drugs be diverted to addiction treatment, including methadone maintenance therapy (MMT) (Consejo Nacional contras las Adicciones, 2010). Specifically, individuals carrying illegal drugs under a threshold amount subject to the law who are stopped by police are released with a warning up to two times. However, upon a third drug-related infraction, individuals are either mandated to addiction treatment or jail (Consejo Nacional contras las Adicciones, 2010).

Mexico’s “ley de narcomenudeo” drug policy reform and the international drug control regime

It has been over half a century since the landmark Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs was adopted, for the first time unifying international drug policy under a single treaty aimed at limiting use, manufacture, trade, possession, and trafficking of opiates, cannabis, and other narcotics. Since then, other international drug policy measures have been adopted, largely emphasizing enforcement-based approaches to reducing drug supply and use. Recently, in response to concerns that the historic focus on criminalization and enforcement has had limited effectiveness, international drug policies have begun to undergo a paradigm shift as countries seek to enact their own reforms to partially depenalize or deregulate personal drug use and possession. This includes Mexico, which in 2009 enacted national drug policy reform partially decriminalizing possession of small quantities of narcotics for personal consumption while also requiring drug treatment for repeat offenders. As countries move forward with their own reform models, critical assessment of their legal compatibility and effectiveness is necessary. In this commentary we conduct a critical assessment of the compatibility of Mexico’s reform policy to the international drug policy regime and describe its role in the current evolving drug policy environment. We argue that Mexico’s reform is consistent with flexibilities allowed under international drug treaty instruments and related commentaries. We also advocate that drug policy reforms and future governance efforts should be based on empirical evidence, emphasize harm reduction practices, and integrate evidence-based evaluation and implementation of drug reform measures.

Utilization of Google enterprise tools to georeference survey data among hard-to-reach groups: strategic application in international settings

BackgroundAs geospatial data have become increasingly integral to health and human rights research, their collection using formal address designations or paper maps has been complicated by numerous factors, including poor cartographic literacy, nomenclature imprecision, and human error. As part of a longitudinal study of people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico, respondents were prompted to georeference specific experiences.ResultsAt baseline, only about one third of the 737 participants were native to Tijuana, underscoring prevalence of migration/deportation experience. Areas frequented typically represented locations with no street address (e.g. informal encampments). Through web-based cartographic technology and participatory mapping, this study was able to overcome the use of vernacular names and difficulties mapping liminal spaces in generating georeferenced data points that were subsequently analyzed in other research.ConclusionIntegrating low-threshold virtual navigation as part of data collection can enhance investigations of mobile populations, informal settlements, and other locations in research into structural production of health at low- or no cost. However, further research into user experience is warranted.

The Spatial-Temporal Pattern of Policing Following a Drug Policy Reform: Triangulating Self-Reported Arrests With Official Crime Statistics.

ABSTRACT Background: In 2009, Mexico enacted a drug policy reform (Narcomenudeo) designed to divert persons possessing small amounts of illicit drugs to treatment rather than incarceration. To assess reform impact, this study examines the spatial-temporal trends of drug-related policing in Tijuana, Mexico post-enactment. Method: Location of self-reported arrests (N = 1,160) among a prospective, community-recruited cohort of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana (N = 552) was mapped across city neighborhoods. Official police reports detailing drug-related arrests was triangulated with PWID self-reported arrests. Exploratory spatial data analysis examined the distribution of arrests and spatial association between both datasets across three successive years, 2011–2013. Results: In 2011, over half of PWID reported being detained but not officially charged with a criminal offense; in 2013, 90% of arrests led to criminal charges. Official drug-related arrests increased by 67.8% (p <.01) from 2011 to 2013 despite overall arrest rates remaining stable throughout Tijuana. For each successive year, we identified a high degree of spatial association between the location of self-reported and official arrests (p <.05). Conclusion: Two independent data sources suggest that intensity of drug law enforcement had risen in Tijuana despite the promulgation of a public health-oriented drug policy reform. The highest concentrations of arrests were in areas traditionally characterized by higher rates of drug crime. High correlation between self-reported and official arrest data underscores opportunities for future research on the role of policing as a structural determinant of public health.

Prevalence and Correlates of Needle-Stick Injuries Among Active Duty Police Officers in Tijuana, Mexico

Police officers are at an elevated risk for needle‐stick injuries (NSI), which pose a serious and costly occupational health risk for HIV and viral hepatitis. However, research on NSIs among police officers is limited, especially in low‐ and middle‐income countries. Despite the legality of syringe possession in Mexico, half of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana report extrajudicial syringe‐related arrests and confiscation by police, which has been associated with needle‐sharing and HIV infection. We assessed the prevalence and correlates of NSIs among Tijuana police officers to inform efforts to improve occupational safety and simultaneously reduce HIV risks among police and PWID.