Jaime Ricardo Tavares Maluf

Altitude e coordenadas geográficas na estimativa da temperatura mínima média decendial do ar no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

The objective of this work was to estimate ten-day mean minimum air temperature (Tm) using altitude and the geographic coordinates latitude and longitude for the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Normal ten-day mean minimum air temperature of 41 counties in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, from 1945 to 1974 were used. Correlation analysis, path analysis of causal variables (altitude, latitude and longitude) on Tm, and parameters estimate of multiple linear regression equations were performed by the stepwise backward method, using Tm as dependent variable and altitude, latitude and longitude as independent variables, for the 36 ten-day periods of the year. Pearsons linear correlation coefficient between estimated and observed Tm, calculated for tem counties using data of the series of meteorological observations from 1975 to 2004 were used as independent data sets. The ten-day mean minimum air temperature may be estimated from the geographic coordinates in the State of Rio Grande do Sul. Altitude and latitude best explain the variation of the Tm.

Estimativa do consumo relativo de água para a cultura da soja no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

The objective of this work was to estimate the relative water consumption (ETr/ETm) for the critical period of soybean in several sowing dates for ten places of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. The maximum evapotranspiration (ETm) was estimated using the crop coefficient (Kc) while the real evapotranspiration (ETr) was estimated through the water balance, calculated for the period from 1975/76 to 2000/2001. Considering the average values of the periods, the relative water consumption varied from 0.46 in the sowing of October, in Rio Grande, to 0.74 in the sowing of December in Veranopolis. Sao Gabriel and Rio Grande are the places that present the smallest values of relative water consumption, therefore with larger risk for the production of grains. In years of strong drought, the relative water consumption, in some situations, was smaller than 0.20, evidencing the problem of water deficiency. In 46.3% of the cases the relative water consumption was classified as of high or medium risk (index ETr/ETm < 0.60 during the critical period). Rio Grande presented 63.3% of the cases with index equal to or smaller than 0.60, followed by Sao Gabriel with 61.1%, Encruzilhada do Sul with 52.6% and Julio de Castilhos with 50.8%. The places of smaller risk were Passo Fundo, Veranopolis and Santa Rosa, with indexes equal to or smaller than 0.60 happening in 30.3%, 37.5% and 38% of the cases, respectively. The sowing date with higher risk was October and with lower risk was December. For the group of the places, it can be expected that every twenty years, in about nine reduction of soybean yield should happen due to water deficiency, with variable intensity, depending on the place, year and sowing date.

Variabilidade temporal e espacial da precisão das estimativas de elementos meteorológicos no Rio Grande do Sul

Planning agricultural activities requires that climatic risks in each location and time of year are estimated with maximum precision. In this estudy data from15 locations of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, were used with the objective of studing spatial and temporal variability of the precision estimates average of monthly rainfall, sunshine, solar radiation global and temperatures minimum, mean and maximum. It was estimated the estimation error (half-amplitude of the confidence interval) (EE) in percentage of estimate average monthly rainfall, sunshine, solar radiation global and temperatures minimum, mean and maximum for each month and location, which was used as a measure of precision. From the EE, for each meteorological elements, months and locations were clustered by hierarchical method of Ward. The Pearsons linear correlation coefficient between the arrays of the standardized average euclidian distance and graphics was calculated in order to check the clusters consistency. It was concluded that the precision estimates, average of months and locations, between the meteorological elements, increases in the following order: rainfall (EE=21.66%), sunshine (EE=6.74%), global solar radiation (EE=5.52%) and temperatures minimum (EE=4.40%), mean (EE=2.63%) and maximum (EE=2.27%). Results showed that there is variability in precision estimate of monthly average rainfall, sunshine, global solar radiation and minimum, mean and maximum temperatures in Rio Grande do Sul, both in temporal and spatial scale. Estimates based on 30 years data are less precision in April, May, June, July, August and September in relation to the others.

Coordenadas geográficas na estimativa das temperaturas máxima e média decendiais do ar no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

The objective of this research was to estimate ten-day maximum (Tx) and mean (Tm) air temperature using altitude and the geographic coordinates latitude and longitude for the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Normal ten-day maximum and mean air temperature of 41 counties in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, from 1945 to 1974 were used. Correlation analysis and parameters estimate of multiple linear regression equations were performed using Tx and Tm as dependent variable and altitude, latitude and longitude as independent variables, for the 36 ten-day periods of the year. Pearsons linear correlation coefficient between estimated and observed Tx and Tm, calculated for tem counties using data of were used as independent data sets. The ten-day maximum and mean air temperature may be estimated from the altitude and the geographic coordinates latitude and longitude in the State of Rio Grande do Sul.

Variabilidade temporal e espacial do tamanho de amostra da temperatura mínima do ar no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil

The aim of this work was to verify temporal and spatial variability of the size sample of the monthly average of air minimum temperature, in 37 localities of the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. The minimum temperature data were collected from 1931 to 2000. It was calculated the sample size, in each month and locality. Localities and months were clustered by the complete linkage method. There are variability temporal and spatial of the size sample (number of years) of the monthly average of air minimum temperature in the Rio Grande do Sul State. Greater sample size occur in the months of May, June and July, with gradual reduction up to January and December. There are variability in the size sample among locaties in the Rio Grande do Sul State.

Dimensionamento da amostra para a estimação da média de precipitação pluvial mensal em diferentes locais do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

It was used data from 19 locations of the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, collected from 1953 to 2007, with the objective to determine the sample size to estimate the average monthly rainfall. The central tendency, variability and asymmetry was calculated for each of the 228 time series (12 months x 19 locations) and the aleatory and normality data were tested. Then it was verified the homogeneity of variance among months in each locality and among places in each month and it was determined the sample size to estimate the average monthly rainfall in each month and locality. The sample size (number of years) to estimate the average monthly rainfall is dependent on the month and locality. One concluded that 51 years of data are enough to predict the average monthly rainfall, with an estimation error equal to 25% of estimated average, with a degree confidence of 95%.

Modelo harmônico para a estimativa da temperatura do ar média mensal em diferentes locais do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

The objective of this research was to adjust the harmonic model for the estimation of average monthly air temperature, in 37 locations of Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, with data from the period 1931 to 2000. In each locality, data from 1931 to 1990 (60 years) was used to estimate the coefficients of the harmonic model and from 1991 to 2000 (10 years) to validate the model. It was tested the normality and homogeneity of variance among months, estimated trends and incorporated into the models harmonic based in waves annual and semiannual. The coefficients linear, angular, correlation and determination, the root mean square error and the index of WILLMOTT (1981) and CAMARGO & SENTELHAS (1997) were used to validate the models. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the harmonic model, was high in all sites (R2≥0.9867), giving reliability for future forecasts. The harmonic model generated for each of the 37 location in the the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, is adequate to estimate the average monthly air temperature.

Temperaturas máximas prejudiciais ao feijoeiro no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil

The objective of this study was to verify temporal and spatial variability of the probable occurrence of decendial mean maximum temperature harmful (³28°C) to bean crop, in 23 locations of the Rio Grande do Sul State. The maximum temperature data were collected at the Fundacao Estadual de Pesquisa Agropecuaria from 1954 to 2004. With the data, it was calculated the probability of harmful decendial mean maximum temperature equal to greater than 28°C for each decendial and locations, from October to March. The correlation analyses were performed between geographic coordinates and probabilities in each decendial for the October-March period. Location were clustered by the complete linkage method. There are variabilities in the occurrence of the harmful decendial mean maximum temperature for bean crop in the Rio Grande do Sul State both on a temporal and spatial scale. Highest climatic risk of decendial maximum temperature harmful bean crop in Rio Grande do Sul State occur in January the third decendial, with gradative decrease up to October the first decendial and to March the third decendial. There is association between the probability of occurrence of the harmful decendial mean maximum temperature for bean crop in the Rio Grande do Sul State and geographic coordinates, with higher climatic risk in regions with low altitude and low longitude.

Tamanho de amostra para a estimação da média mensal de insolação diária em diferentes locais do estado do Rio Grande do Sul

It was used data from 30 locations of the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil, collected from 1960 to 2007, with the objective to determine the sample size (number of years) to estimate the average daily month insolation . The average and variance was calculated for each of the 360 time series (12 months x 30 locations) and the aleatory and normality data were tested. Then it was verified the homogeneity of variance among months in each locality and among places in each month and it was determined the sample size to estimate the average monthly insolation daily in each month and locality. The sample size (number of years) to estimate the average monthly insolation daily is dependent on the month and locality. One concluded that 44 years of data are enough to predict the average monthly insolation daily, with an estimation error equal to ±0.5 hours days-1, with a degree confidence of 95%.

Estimativa do consumo relativo de água para a cultura do feijoeiro na região do Planalto Médio do Rio Grande do Sul

The objective of this work was to estimate the relative water consumption (ETr/ETm) for the critical period of common bean in several sowing dates, and different water availability in soil for tree places of Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil,. The maximum evapotranspiration (ETm) was estimated using the crop coefficient (Kc) while the real evapotranspiration (ETr) was estimated through the water balance, calculated for the period from 1975/76 to 2000/2001. Considering the average values of the periods, the relative water consumption varied from 0.68 in the sowing date of November, in Julio de Castilhos, for water availability in soil of 50mm, to 0.88 in the sowing of September in Passo Fundo, for water availability in soil of 70mm. The medium values, obtained for each local and sowing date, are inside of favorable index for the common bean (ETr/ETm > 0.60). The largest values of the relative water consumption where obtained in sowing date of September, with intermediary values for October and smallest values in sowing of November. The relative water consumption was smaller than 0.20, in years of strong drought, evidencing situations of high risk to grain production. In 20.6% of the cases, the relative water consumption was classified as of high or medium risk (index ETr/ETm £ 0.60 during the critical period), for water availability in soil of 50mm. Cruz Alta presented the highest risk to grain production, while Passo Fundo presented the smallest risk. The sowing date with the highest risk was November while September had the lowest risk. For the analyzed places, it can be expected that, of every ten years, in about two should happen reduction of common bean yield due to water deficiency, with variable intensity, depending on the place, year and sowing date.