Jakub Keller

Znaczenie Specjalnych Stref Ekonomicznych w rozwoju polskich regionów - na przykładzie województwa łódzkiego

Article finance from NCN project titled: the effectiveness of Special Economic Zones, UMO-2013/09 / B / HS4 / 01514

The psychology of investing: Stock market recommendations and their impact on investors’ decisions (the example of the Polish stock market)

This study seeks to show the impact of stock recommendation reports on the efficiency of investments in the Polish stock market. The study is carried out in two stages: the first takes place at the micro-level and is based on a behavioural experiment, while the second focuses on the verification of our results obtained on a real market. The main assertion is that stock recommendations create heuristic effects among investors near the publication date of the recommendation. The ambiguity of the recommendations hinders investors’ reliable and unequivocal evaluation in investment decisions. There are studies in this field for different stock markets and periods of time, but our research added significant new knowledge about the functioning of the Polish stock exchange. Our study fits into the mainstream analysis of outlining the behaviour of investors in the capital market. The research findings underpin our pessimism about the impact of stock recommendations on investors’ behaviour.

Day-of-the-week effect among the smallest enterprises listed on WSE

The text touches on the subject of the fi nancial markets in the context of behavioral theories. The author att empts to verify the occurrence of one of the popular calendar eff ects, the day-of-the- -week eff ect, on the Polish stock market. Another limitati on of the study area of the research is to include in the analysis only small companies. Many voices from the mainstream of behavioral fi nance say that the presence of anomalies listed is more evident in the case of small companies, which are not the focus of the majority of investors. In the proposed study, the data used contained companies in the Stock Exchange in Warsaw, with a maximum capitalizati on of 10 million PLN. Research sample includes quotati ons of these companies during the period January 2010-April 2014. In order to verify the hypothesis of the occurrence of the day-of-the-week eff ect among these companies the author used ARCH modeling. In the course of the analysis the author verifi ed negati vely the occurrence of the eff ect of weekdays in the proposed research sample.

Stock Exchange Recommendations and Economic Realities

Abstract The aim of this paper is to present the impact of stock recommendations on the prices in the context of excessive optimism heuristic. The main goal of the conducted analysis is to show that investors on the Warsaw Stock Exchange seem to ignore the economic information that comes with the recommendation report. Also, as the analyzed recommendations are set in the specified economic conditions, authors would like to show that reports are biased with excessive optimism. The research of the structure of recommendations was issued for the biggest companies of the Polish market listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange from 2009 to 2012. The investigation showed that the ambiguity of the creation methods of analytical reports and differences in valuation of companies causes subjectivism in analysts’ assessments, which leads to heuristic effects. According to the authors, the structure of reports and their specificity shows that excessive optimism is an important factor in creation of stock exchange recommendations.

The Structure of Stock Exchange Recommendations in Poland in the Context of the Anchoring Effect and Excessive Optimism

Exchange. The problem tackled in this paper is an argument that analysts show excessive optimism issuing recommendations for companies and try to avoid strong and unambiguous recommendations. Behavioral context of the conducted analysis results from the fact that the target prices and recommendations themselves are not determined only by mathematical calculations. Despite some established procedures and schemes used in the valuation process, calculations are still based on subjective assumptions. Furthermore, the results of the obtained forecasts and analysis are ultimately evaluated by the analyst preparing the report. In this process, he can verify the obtained results on the basis of non-objective and sometimes erroneous factors resulting from heuristics.