Jakub Nowosad

Spatiotemporal models for predicting high pollen concentration level of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula

Corylus, Alnus, and Betula trees are among the most important sources of allergic pollen in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere and have a large impact on the quality of life and productivity of allergy sufferers. Therefore, it is important to predict high pollen concentrations, both in time and space. The aim of this study was to create and evaluate spatiotemporal models for predicting high Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels, based on gridded meteorological data. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out in 11 cities in Poland and gathered, depending on the site, between 2 and 16 years of measurements. According to the first allergy symptoms during exposure, a high pollen count level was established for each taxon. An optimizing probability threshold technique was used for mitigation of the problem of imbalance in the pollen concentration levels. For each taxon, the model was built using a random forest method. The study revealed the possibility of moderately reliable prediction of Corylus and highly reliable prediction of Alnus and Betula high pollen concentration levels, using preprocessed gridded meteorological data. Cumulative growing degree days and potential evaporation proved to be two of the most important predictor variables in the models. The final models predicted not only for single locations but also for continuous areas. Furthermore, the proposed modeling framework could be used to predict high pollen concentrations of Corylus, Alnus, Betula, and other taxa, and in other countries.

Forecasting model of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels using spatiotemporal correlation properties of pollen count

The aim of the study was to create and evaluate models for predicting high levels of daily pollen concentration of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula using a spatiotemporal correlation of pollen count. For each taxon, a high pollen count level was established according to the first allergy symptoms during exposure. The dataset was divided into a training set and a test set, using a stratified random split. For each taxon and city, the model was built using a random forest method. Corylus models performed poorly. However, the study revealed the possibility of predicting with substantial accuracy the occurrence of days with high pollen concentrations of Alnus and Betula using past pollen count data from monitoring sites. These results can be used for building (1) simpler models, which require data only from aerobiological monitoring sites, and (2) combined meteorological and aerobiological models for predicting high levels of pollen concentration.

RELATION BETWEEN EXTENSIVE EXTREME PRECIPITATION IN POLAND AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

Abstract The basic aim of this study was to find relations between the dates of occurrence and characteristics of extensive extreme daily (24-h) precipitation totals (EEDPTs) and pressure systems. The analysis was conducted on the basis of precipitation data from the multi-year period 1956-1980 and the Grosswetterlagen classification of circulation situations. EEDPTs were taken to embrace those cases of maximum annual daily precipitation totals that were registered on the same day at a minimum of 75 precipitation stations. In the years 1956-1980 there were 209 such events. The hypothesis about the effect of a circulation situation on the probability of occurrence of an EEDPT was verified in quantitative terms, the reference being both the entire multi-year period and the seasonal variation in the occurrence of precipitation of this type. Next, circulation situations were compared in terms of amount-related parameters of EEDPTs (mean precipitation, coefficient of variation), their spatial features (perimeter, area), and precipitation volume. The analyses performed show a statistically significant dependence between the atmospheric circulation and extensive extreme precipitation. It was demonstrated that there were circulation situations during which EEDPTs occurred much more often or much more rarely than over the entire multi-year period under study. Also identified was the connection of an atmospheric circulation with the mean amount, coefficient of variation and volume of extensive extreme precipitation.

Towards machine ecoregionalization of Earth's landmass using pattern segmentation method

Abstract We present and evaluate a quantitative method for delineation of ecophysiographic regions throughout the entire terrestrial landmass. The method uses the new pattern-based segmentation technique which attempts to emulate the qualitative, weight-of-evidence approach to a delineation of ecoregions in a computer code. An ecophysiographic region is characterized by homogeneous physiography defined by the cohesiveness of patterns of four variables: land cover, soils, landforms, and climatic patterns. Homogeneous physiography is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a region to be an ecoregion, thus machine delineation of ecophysiographic regions is the first, important step toward global ecoregionalization. In this paper, we focus on the first-order approximation of the proposed method – delineation on the basis of the patterns of the land cover alone. We justify this approximation by the existence of significant spatial associations between various physiographic variables. Resulting ecophysiographic regionalization (ECOR) is shown to be more physiographically homogeneous than existing global ecoregionalizations (Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World (TEW) and Baileys Ecoregions of the Continents (BEC)). The presented quantitative method has an advantage of being transparent and objective. It can be verified, easily updated, modified and customized for specific applications. Each region in ECOR contains detailed, SQL-searchable information about physiographic patterns within it. It also has a computer-generated label. To give a sense of how ECOR compares to TEW and, in the U.S., to EPA Level III ecoregions, we contrast these different delineations using two specific sites as examples. We conclude that ECOR yields regionalization somewhat similar to EPA level III ecoregions, but for the entire world, and by automatic means.

Information-theoretical approach to measuring landscape complexity

Context Comparing a large number of landscapes calls for using the smallest possible set of landscape metrics. The overall complexity of land-scape pattern is the single most important metric, but the standard set of landscape metrics lacks the bona fide indicator of complexity. Objective Demonstrate that information theory provides a natural frame-work for a systematic analysis of landscape complexity. Organize landscape pattern types using a minimal number of information-theoretical metrics. Methods Using the concept of entropy of a random variable consisting of pairs of adjacent cells we analytically derive four theoretical metrics of landscape complexity: an overall spatio-thematic complexity, a thematic complexity, a configurational complexity, and a disambiguator of pattern types having the same overall complexity. We use sets of natural and neutral landscapes to demonstrate the utility of these metrics. Results There is a simple, additive relation between three types of complexity, total = thematic + configurational. Thematic and configurational complexities are highly dependent leading to a simple rule for landscape patterns: class diversity induces complexity. Two metrics, an overall complexity and a pattern type disambiguator, are sufficient to organize landscape types. Conclusions Long-standing issue of a relative importance of composition and configuration to an overall description of landscape pattern finds an elegant solution within a framework of information theory. We demonstrated that increasing the complexity of composition must be accompanied by increasing the complexity of configuration. Landscape types cannot be compared by using only the complexity metric; the disambiguator metric must be added for an unambiguous comparison.Abstract Context Quantitative grouping of similar landscape patterns is an important part of landscape ecology due to the relationship between a pattern and an underlying ecological process. One of the priorities in landscape ecology is a development of the theoretically consistent framework for quantifying, ordering and classifying landscape patterns. Objective To demonstrate that the Information Theory as applied to a bivariate random variable provides a consistent framework for quantifying, ordering, and classifying landscape patterns. Methods After presenting Information Theory in the context of landscapes, information-theoretical metrics were calculated for an exemplar set of landscapes embodying all feasible configurations of land cover patterns. Sequences and 2D parametrization of patterns in this set were performed to demonstrate the feasibility of Information Theory for the analysis of landscape patterns. Results Universal classification of landscape into pattern configuration types was achieved by transforming landscapes into a 2D space of weakly correlated information-theoretical metrics. An ordering of landscapes by any single metric cannot produce a sequence of continuously changing patterns. In real-life patterns, diversity induces complexity – increasingly diverse patterns are increasingly complex. Conclusions Information theory provides a consistent, theory-based framework for the analysis of landscape patterns. Information-theoretical parametrization of landscapes offers a method for their classification.

Spatial association between regionalizations using the information-theoretical V-measure

ABSTRACT There is a keen interest in calculating spatial associations between two variables spanning the same study area. Many methods for calculating such associations have been proposed, but the case when both variables are categorical is underdeveloped despite the fact that many datasets of interest are in the form of either regionalizations or thematic maps. In this paper, we advance this case by adapting the so-called -measure method from its original information-theoretical formulation to the analysis of variance formulation which provides more insight for spatial analysis. We present a step-by-step derivation of the -measure from the perspective of the analysis of variance. The method produces three indices of global association and two sets of local association indicators which could be mapped to indicate spatial distribution of association strength. The open-source software for calculating all indices from vector datasets accompanies the paper. To showcase the utility of the -measure, we identified three different application contexts: comparative, associative, and derivative, and present an example of each of them. The -measure method has several advantages over the widely used Mapcurves method, it has clear interpretations in terms of mutual information as well as in terms of analysis of variance, it provides more precise assessment of association, it is ready-to-use through the accompanying software, and the examples given in the paper serves as a guide to the gamut of its possible applications. Two specific contributions stemming from our re-analysis of the -measure are the finding of the conceptual flaw in the Geographical Detector—a method to quantify associations between numerical and categorical spatial variables, and a proposal for the new, cartographically based algorithm for finding an optimal number of regions in clustering-derived regionalizations.

Machine learning modeling of plant phenology based on coupling satellite and gridded meteorological dataset

Changes in the timing of plant phenological phases are important proxies in contemporary climate research. However, most of the commonly used traditional phenological observations do not give any coherent spatial information. While consistent spatial data can be obtained from airborne sensors and preprocessed gridded meteorological data, not many studies robustly benefit from these data sources. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to create and evaluate different statistical models for reconstructing, predicting, and improving quality of phenological phases monitoring with the use of satellite and meteorological products. A quality-controlled dataset of the 13 BBCH plant phenophases in Poland was collected for the period 2007–2014. For each phenophase, statistical models were built using the most commonly applied regression-based machine learning techniques, such as multiple linear regression, lasso, principal component regression, generalized boosted models, and random forest. The quality of the models was estimated using a k-fold cross-validation. The obtained results showed varying potential for coupling meteorological derived indices with remote sensing products in terms of phenological modeling; however, application of both data sources improves models’ accuracy from 0.6 to 4.6 day in terms of obtained RMSE. It is shown that a robust prediction of early phenological phases is mostly related to meteorological indices, whereas for autumn phenophases, there is a stronger information signal provided by satellite-derived vegetation metrics. Choosing a specific set of predictors and applying a robust preprocessing procedures is more important for final results than the selection of a particular statistical model. The average RMSE for the best models of all phenophases is 6.3, while the individual RMSE vary seasonally from 3.5 to 10 days. Models give reliable proxy for ground observations with RMSE below 5 days for early spring and late spring phenophases. For other phenophases, RMSE are higher and rise up to 9–10 days in the case of the earliest spring phenophases.

Global assessment and mapping of changes in mesoscale landscapes: 1992–2015

Abstract Monitoring global land cover changes is important because of concerns about their impact on environment and climate. The release by the European Space Agency (ESA) of a set of worldwide annual land cover maps covering the 1992–2015 period makes possible a quantitative assessment of land change on the global scale. While ESA land cover mapping effort was motivated by the need to better characterize global and regional carbon cycles, the dataset may benefit a broad range of disciplines. To facilitate utilization of ESA maps for broad-scale problems in landscape ecology and environmental studies, we have constructed a GIS-based vector database of mesoscale landscapes – patterns of land cover categories in 9 km × 9 km tracts of land. First, we reprojected ESA maps to the Fuller projection to assure that each landscape in the database has approximately the same size and shape so the patterns of landscapes at different locations can be compared. Second, we calculated landscape attributes including its compositions in 1992 and 2015, magnitude of pattern change, categories transition matrix for detailed characterization of change, fractional abundances of plant functional types (PFTs) in 1992 and 2015, and change trend type – a simple, overall descriptor of the character of landscape change. Combining change trends and change magnitude information we constructed a global, thematic map of land change; this map offers a visualization of what, where, and to what degree has changed between 1992 and 2015. The database is SQL searchable and supports all GIS vector operations. Using change magnitude attribute we calculated that only 22% of total landmass experienced significant landscape change during the 1992–2015 period, but that change zone accounted for 80% of all pixel-based transitions. Dominant land cover transitions were forest → agriculture followed by agriculture → forest. Using PFTs attributes to calculate global aggregation of gross and net changes for major PFTs yielded results in agreement with other recent estimates.

Evaluating the portability of satellite derived chlorophyll- a algorithms for temperate inland lakes using airborne hyperspectral imagery and dense surface observations

This study evaluated the performances of twenty-nine algorithms that use satellite-based spectral imager data to derive estimates of chlorophyll-a concentrations that, in turn, can be used as an indicator of the general status of algal cell densities and the potential for a harmful algal bloom (HAB). The performance assessment was based on making relative comparisons between two temperate inland lakes: Harsha Lake (7.99 km2) in Southwest Ohio and Taylorsville Lake (11.88 km2) in central Kentucky. Of interest was identifying algorithm-imager combinations that had high correlation with coincident chlorophyll-a surface observations for both lakes, as this suggests portability for regional HAB monitoring. The spectral data utilized to estimate surface water chlorophyll-a concentrations were derived from the airborne Compact Airborne Spectral Imager (CASI) 1500 hyperspectral imager, that was then used to derive synthetic versions of currently operational satellite-based imagers using spatial resampling and spectral binning. The synthetic data mimics the configurations of spectral imagers on current satellites in earths orbit including, WorldView-2/3, Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS). High correlations were found between the direct measurement and the imagery-estimated chlorophyll-a concentrations at both lakes. The results determined that eleven out of the twenty-nine algorithms were considered portable, with r2 values greater than 0.5 for both lakes. Even though the two lakes are different in terms of background water quality, size and shape, with Taylorsville being generally less impaired, larger, but much narrower throughout, the results support the portability of utilizing a suite of certain algorithms across multiple sensors to detect potential algal blooms through the use of chlorophyll-a as a proxy. Furthermore, the strong performance of the Sentinel-2 algorithms is exceptionally promising, due to the recent launch of the second satellite in the constellation, which will provide higher temporal resolution for temperate inland water bodies. Additionally, scripts were written for the open-source statistical software R that automate much of the spectral data processing steps. This allows for the simultaneous consideration of numerous algorithms across multiple imagers over an expedited time frame for the near real-time monitoring required for detecting algal blooms and mitigating their adverse impacts.