Jalal El Ouardighi

Do Balkan Countries Have a European Future? An Analysis of Real Economic Convergence, 1989-2005

Do Balkan Countries Have a European Future? An Analysis of Real Economic Convergence, 1989-2005 The purpose of this paper is to assess the economic performance of Balkan countries compared to the European Union over the period 1989-2005. We use three economic indicators of income, productivity and employment. The analysis rests on the test of the real convergence process of these indicators. The results show evidence of real convergence (i.e., convergence hypothesis and reduction of inequalities) of labour productivity in Balkans, but they are mixed for income per capita and employment rate. The development gap between the Balkans and the European Union, which has widened considerably in the 1991-1993 period, shows a sign of recovery after this date. However, the gap remains very deep and the process of catching up with the European Union is too slow.

Is Growth Pro-Poor in the Balkan Region?

The concept of pro-poor growth focuses on the interrelation between economic growth, inequality, and poverty. According to an absolute definition, growth is pro-poor if the absolute income gain of the poor is larger than those on average. In contrast, a relative definition requires that the growth rate of income is higher among the poor than the nonpoor. The pro-poor literature has often considered the concept of pro-poor growth within a country by using household data in one country, or a large cross section of countries and time periods. This paper measures pro-poor growth across countries. We show how the concept of pro-poor growth in income per capita can be applied easily to a set of economies in the course of growth. This approach enables us to highlight the link to income convergence studies. The empirical investigations consider the experience of five Balkan countries during the period 1989-2005. The results show that many episodes of growth are not pro-poor because poverty and inequality worsen between Balkan countries. Although economic reforms seem to have a positive effect on well-being in Balkan countries, the overall effect on growth has been small for most countries.

Pro-development economic growth and international income mobility: Evidence worldwide

This paper suggests a new methodology which allows to show whether worldwide growth has been favourable to developing economies, and a new measure to assess international income mobility across countries. The empirical illustration considers a panel of 123 countries observed over the years 1989-2008. The results point out that worldwide income growth was not pro-development, they show rather an impoverishment of the low-income countries over the last two decades. The results also reveal that income mobility induced by countries reranking within the income distribution decreased between the 1990s and the 2000s, and the bulk of positional mobility took place in the middle-income economies.

Income Mobility in the See Region: A Comparative Analysis with the Eu Countries ()

Abstract The aim of this paper is to revisit the broad researches performed on income mobility. To that end, first, we synthesize the commonly used concepts and corresponding measures in three classes, namely, movement, temporal dependence and equalization of incomes. Second, since the unit of analysis is country, we reformulate the mobility indicators to take into account the countries sizes. Third, in the empirical approach, we compare income mobility in the SEE (South-Eastern Europe) region and in the EU (European Union) countries over the 1990-2009 time period. The results suggest that, in the long-term, income mobility is greater in the SEE than in the EU. However, the opposite holds in the last decade. Moreover, income mobility is mostly a divergent process in the SEE region, whereas the EU experienced a convergent mobility. In addition, unlike the EU, income mobility has disequalized longer-term incomes in the SEE region throughout the period of study. Accordingly, these results can serve as a basis for decision-making in the field of regional development policies that are used in the process of European integration.

La spécialisation des activités technologiques des régions européennes : une approche empirique de la convergence

Ce papier analyse la dynamique de la specialisation des activites technologiques mesurees par les brevets de 221 regions europeennes sur la periode 1989-2000. L’approche adoptee repose sur la specification d’un modele a erreurs composees et a coefficients variables. La modelisation prend en compte l’impact des specificites regionales sur la vitesse de convergence technologique et etudie comment la croissance economique affecte la specialisation des regions. Les resultats d’estimation montrent (i) une convergence (de-specialisation) des activites technologiques regionales. Les vitesses de de- specialisation varient selon les regions de 0% a 8% par an. (ii) Les capacites inventives initiales et les effets nationaux apparaissent comme des facteurs de deceleration de la vitesse de convergence technologique. (iii) l’effet de la croissance economique sur la specialisation est positif pour les regions a forte propension a breveter mais negatif pour les regions a faibles capacites inventives, toutes choses egales par ailleurs.