James A. McCann

Mexicans react to electoral fraud and political corruption: an assessment of public opinion and voting behavior

Abstract Despite various electoral reforms enacted in Mexico between 1988 and 1994, large numbers of Mexicans doubted the honesty of elections and the general integrity of their countrys policy making process. Such doubts did not automatically lead, however, to support for opposition parties that called for greater democratization. Rather, voter preferences were largely dependent on judgments about the oppositions viability and competence. Widespread suspicions about fraud and corruption in Mexico did affect electoral outcomes by making it less likely that potential opposition supporters turned out to vote. Data are drawn from seven national public opinion surveys conducted in Mexico in 1986, 1988, 1991, 1994 (3 polls), and 1995.

Television News, Mexico's 2000 Elections and Media Effects in Emerging Democracies

On the basis of an analysis of a four-wave panel survey, we argue that exposure to television news had significant, substantial effects on both attitudes and vote choices in Mexicos watershed presidential election of 2000. These findings support the contention, implicit in some research on political communication, that the magnitude of media effects varies with certain features of the political context. In particular, television influence in electoral campaigns may be substantially larger in emerging democratic systems.

SHAPING MEXICO'S ELECTORAL ARENA: THE CONSTRUCTION OF PARTISAN CLEAVAGES IN THE 1988 AND 1991 NATIONAL ELECTIONS

|n the 1988 and 1991 national elections, Mexican voters asked themselves above all whether they continued to support the long-ruling official party. Voter behavior was not well explained by 5 attachments to social cleavages, attitudes on policy issues, or general assessments about the present circumstances and the prospects for the nations economy or personal finances. In both elections, moreover, the parties of the Left failed to mobilize voters that had chosen to abstain in past elections. Once voters were ready to oppose the ruling party, however, differences by issue, prospective economic assessments, and social cleavages shaped their choice between the opposition parties.

An Electorate Adrift?: Public Opinion and the Quality of Democracy in Mexico

When citizens lack stable political attitudes, leaders cannot easily be held accountable for their record in office, party system consolidation becomes more difficult, and public opinion is unable to offer much substantive guidance about policy-making. Ultimately, democratic governance is likely to suffer. In this article, we analyze a recent four-wave panel survey to assess the stability of political attitudes in Mexico. We find that the degree of attitude stability in Mexico varies across different types of dispositions. Although citizens hold reasonably firm views about the countrys main political actors, preferences over issues are less consistent. These findings suggest both possibilities and constraints for democratic governance.

Nomination Politics and Ideological Polarization: Assessing the Attitudinal Effects of Campaign Involvement

Many critics of the open presidential nomination system have faulted the democratic reforms of the 1960s and 1970s for increasing the tendency toward ideological polarization within each partisan bloc. Several recent studies, however, downplay the ideological component of nomination campaign mobilization. In contrast to these later revisionists, I find much evidence to support the original charge of ideological polarization during nomination politics. I do so by respecifying the connection between political attitudes and political involvement; activists who worked for one of the more ideologically extreme candidates in 1988 became more committed ideologues themselves as a consequence of their participation. However, rather than damaging the partisan blocs, involvement in an ideologically charged campaign reinforced the activists commitment to his or her party.

Presidential Nomination Campaigns and Party Mobilization: An Assessment of Spillover Effects

Theory: Contrary to scholars who criticize the openness of the contemporary system of selecting presidential nominees, we theorize that citizen participation in presidential nomination campaigns can have beneficial effects for a political partys subsequent mobilization efforts. Hypothesis: Presidential-level campaign mobilization before the summer nominating conventions increases the activists work on behalf of United States House candidates during the general election (this relationship is labeled the spillover effect). Methods: Path analysis is used (estimated via LISREL), based on a panel survey of presidential nomination participants in 1988 and 1992. Results: Activity in congressional campaigns conforms to expectations. In no instance does involvement in losing presidential nomination campaigns cause individuals to defect from fall campaign work at the House-level; rather, preconvention mobilization into presidential politics tends to increase participation on behalf of House candidates. Furthermore, such spillover effects are long-term; involvement in a nomination campaign in 1988 is found to increase participation in congressional campaigns four years later.

Whither the PRI?: Explaining Voter Defection in the 1988 Mexican Presidential Elections

Abstract Based on a nationwide Gallup poll conducted in Mexico in May 1988, we study voters who said that they had voted for Mexicos ruling party (the Institutional Revolutionary Party—PRI) in 1982 but would not in the July 1988 presidential election. By means of logistic regression, we argue that the intended behaviour of these self-identified PRI defectors is best explained by their judgements about the prospects for the political regimes institutions and by their view of candidate Carlos Salinass personal qualities. Defection was not explained, however, by the demographic characteristics or life circumstances of voters nor by their attitudes about specific policy issues nor by their views about the performance of the countrys economy.

Partisanship by Invitation: Immigrants Respond to Political Campaigns

As the size of the foreign-born population in the United States has climbed, political scientists have focused increasing attention on immigrant incorporation into American politics. Much previous work emphasizes the impediments to partisan incorporation for the foreign-born. Drawing from two-wave panel surveys of Mexican immigrants administered during the national elections of 2006 and 2008, we show that levels of partisanship for this population rise markedly in campaign environments. These shifts are largely in a Democratic direction. An experiment embedded in the 2008 survey demonstrates that immigrants are highly sensitive to political appeals extended by the Democratic side and modest amounts of exposure to political advertisements can have sizable long-term effects on party identification. These findings suggest that while the foreign-born may never possess the kinds of stable partisan orientations that are characteristic of native-born Americans, they are no strangers to party politics.

The Changing Contours of the Immigrant Rights Protest Movement in the United States: Who Demonstrates Now?

Abstract Drawing from several original longitudinal surveys of the Mexican immigrant population in Texas and Indiana, we examine the course of the immigrant rights movement in the wake of the historic mobilization in the spring of 2006. We find that from 2007 to 2015, the number of participants in demonstrations, rallies, and marches to support immigrant rights dropped substantially, though protesting remains a fairly prevalent activity. The Mexicans taking part in protest events today, however, have higher levels of education and are older compared to 8 years ago, and they are not primarily driven by personal grievances. This change in the activist base suggests that the immigrant rights movement is following a trajectory that is common among protest movements across many democratic systems. What began as an expression of profound discontent has become a somewhat more conventional mode of involvement.