James Alan Fox

Randomized response: a method for sensitive surveys.

Survey research is useful in studying a variety of problems but asking respondents direct questions about controversial topics may not lead to honest answers. Is it possible to get good estimates of behavioral frequencies when a behavior is severely disapproved of and perhaps even criminal? One can get honest answers but not by asking naive questions. This monograph describes an innovative survey method designed for sensitive or threatening inquiries. The 1st part of the monograph discusses error sources especially in responses to sensitive disapproved or criminal behaviors and attitudes. The authors consider traditional strategies for protecting anonymity and confidentiality and note that these protections are either limited or perceived by respondents to be ineffective. The monograph focuses on describing the randomized response method and how it can be used to effectively and efficiently protect respondents thus minimizing survey bias. Randomized response can be used to 1) estimate parameters of both qualitative and quantitative measures 2) test subgroup differences and 3) perform bivariate and multivariate analysis. The authors consider survey design and include sample questions and research examples. An appendix contains sample instructions to respondents.

Multiple Homicide: Patterns of Serial and Mass Murder

Over the past decade the topic of multiple homicide-serial and mass murder-has attracted increased attention in the field of criminology. Though far from the epidemic suggested in media reports, it is alarming nonetheless that a small number of offenders account for so much human destruction and widespread fear. The serial killer is typically a white male in his late twenties or thirties who targets strangers encountered near his work or home. These killers tend to be sociopaths who satisfy personal needs by killing with physical force. Demographically similar to the serial killer, the mass murderer generally kills people he knows well, acting deliberately and methodically. He executes his victims in the most expedient way-with a firearm. Importantly, the difference of timing that distinguishes serial from mass murder may also obscure strong similarities in their motivation. Both can be understood within the same motivational typology-power, revenge, loyalty, profit, and terror. The research literature, still in its infancy, is more speculative than definitive, based primarily on anecdotal evidence rather than hard data. Future studies should make greater use of comparison groups and seek life-cycle explanations-beyond early childhood-which recognize the unique patterns and characteristics of multiple murderers. A research focus on murder in the extreme may also help us understand more commonplace forms of interpersonal violence.

The Validity of Randomized Response for Sensitive Measurements

Randomized response is a survey technique for reducing response bias arising from respondent concern over revealing sensitive information. There has been some question whether bias reduction earned through the randomized response approach is sufficient to compensate for its inefficiency. By comparing self-reported arrests for two interview conditions (randomized response and direct question) with corresponding true scores appearing in police arrest files, a field-validation of a quantitative randomized response model was attempted. Overall, randomized response outperformed the more traditional direct-question method. Not only was there substantial reduction in mean response error, but the response error operative in the randomized response condition appeared to be random rather than systematic. A mean squared error comparison of the two conditions appears to assuage the concern over its relative inefficiency.

Mass Shootings in America: Moving Beyond Newtown

Mass shootings at a Connecticut elementary school, a Colorado movie theater, and other venues have prompted a fair number of proposals for change. Advocates for tighter gun restrictions, for expanding mental health services, for upgrading security in public places, and, even, for controlling violent entertainment have made certain assumptions about the nature of mass murder that are not necessarily valid. This article examines a variety of myths and misconceptions about multiple homicide and mass shooters, pointing out some of the difficult realities in trying to avert these murderous rampages. While many of the policy proposals are worthwhile in general, their prospects for reducing the risk of mass murder are limited.

Mass Murder Goes to College: An Examination of Changes on College Campuses Following Virginia Tech

Notwithstanding the historical significance of the Columbine shooting, recent attention has shifted to college campuses following high-profile massacres at Virginia Tech and Northern Illinois University. In this article, the authors compile and discuss the recommendations most often put forth by task force reports published in the wake of these episodes. Although some proposals can increase the security and well-being of the campus community, others may be inappropriate and even carry unacceptable negative consequences. The problem rests partly in the implicit assumption that effective strategies for secondary schools will seamlessly translate to a college environment. However, campus shootings are not just Columbine graduated to higher education, as differences in assailant motivation and setting warrant divergent strategies for prevention and response.

Mass Murder: An Analysis of Extreme Violence

Mass murder involves the slaughter of four or more victims by one or a few assailants within a single event, lasting but a few minutes or as long as several hours. More than just arbitrary, using this minimum body count—as opposed to a two- or three-victim threshold suggested by others (e.g., Ressler et al., 1988, Holmes and Holmes, 2001)—helps to distinguish multiple killing from homicide generally. Moreover, by restricting our attention to acts committed by one or a few offenders, our working definition of multiple homicide also excludes highly organized or institutionalized killings (e.g., war crimes and large-scale acts of political terrorism as well as certain acts of highly organized crime rings). Although state-sponsored killings are important in their own right, they may be better explained through the theories and methods of political science than criminology. Thus, for example, the definition of multiple homicide would include the crimes committed by Charles Manson and his followers, but not those of Hitlers Third Reich, or the 9/11 terrorists, despite some similarities in the operations of authority.

Missing Data Problems in the SHR Imputing Offender and Relationship Characteristics

Although the so-called “dark figure” crime measurement problem has never been a major concern for homicide researchers, the Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) as well as other local data series on murder still are plagued by other kinds of missing data issues. Most prominent is missingness in data pertaining to offender characteristics as well as to victim-offender relationship that results from uncleared cases. Ignoring unsolved homicides would, of course, seriously understate calculated rates of offending by particular subgroups of the population, would distort trends over time among these same subgroups, and would bias observed patterns of offending to the extent that the likelihood of missing offender data is associated with offender characteristics. This article presents several approaches for overcoming missing data problems in the 1976-2001 cumulative SHRdata file. First, a weighting procedure is described that uses characteristics of known offenders to serve as proxies for those of unidentified perpetrators. The weighting procedure included in the SHR file archived at ICPSR as well as an enhanced version are both presented and compared. Next, a “hot-deck” imputation strategy is applied to fill in missing offender attributes based on similar cases for which the offender is known. Finally, the matter of imputing victim-offender relationship data is discussed. Because this form of missingness cannot be assumed to occur at random, an ad-hoc procedure for estimating the number of intimate homicides among the pool of unsolved slayings is presented.

Firing back: the growing threat of workplace homicide

Homicides committed against supervisors and coworkers by disgruntled employees have grown at a disturbing rate in the American workplace. Increasingly, embittered employees and ex-employees are seeking revenge through violence and murder for alleged mistreatment on the job. This article examines patterns and trends in available data and presents a theoretical profile of those who kill at the work site. It suggests that the typical homicide of employers and coworkers is committed by a disgruntled, white, middle-aged male who faces termination or who has recently been fired. Recommendations are advanced for how employers might better respond to problem employees and to homicidal threats at the workplace. These include prevention strategies, such as giving higher priority to the role of human resources, affording employees due process protection against unfair terminations, and changing the importance attached to the meaning of work in peoples lives.

Location and other correlates of campus crime

Abstract Crime and security are major issues on a number of college campuses in the United States, yet little criminology research has been aimed at the campus setting. This article explores whixh aspects of the campus profile seem to contribute, or at least relate, to high levels of campus crime. A regression of crime rates on dimensions of the campus profile uncovered a number of correlates (specifically, measures of campus size and scholastic quality) in our sample of 222 colleges and universities. Somewhat surprisingly, the location of a campus—be it in an urban or a rural setting—had no impact on the level of its crime problem, though a slight influence on crime mix (proportion of crimes that are violent) was found.

Deadly Demographics: Population Characteristics and Forecasting Homicide Trends

Violence research has identified demographic subgroups—distinguished by age, race and gender—having widely varying rates of offending. According to the demographic hypothesis used in criminology, as these segments grow or contract in proportionate size, the aggregate offending rate tends to rise or fall as a result. In this article, we use data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports from 1976 through 1999 to assess the extent to which demographic change can account for the massive drop in homicide rates that occurred during the 1990s, and then attempt to develop a demographically based forecast of future trends in murder.