James C. Moore

A model of decision-making with sequential information-acquisition (part 2)

Abstract While most real-life decision are of necessity made with less than perfect information, there is usually some opportunity to acquire additional information regarding the problem at hand before a final decision is made. It is, of course, the recognition of this fact which has led to the importance now attached to the field of Decision Support Systems. On the other hand, the formal analysis of the sort of decision problem for which Decision Support Systems can be useful appears to have lagged behind the developments in applications. In this paper we develope a model of decision-making in which there is available a variety of informational sources (experiments) which can reduce (though generally not eliminate) the uncertainty associated with the final decision. Since the informational sources are available only at some cost (either monetarily or in terms of time, or both), the decision-maker must solve two conceptually distinct problems: (1) developing an optimal information-gathering strategy, and (2) developing an optimal final decision strategy, conditional upon the information obtained during the information-gathering process. A theoretical framework is developed here for the analysis of this general problem, and fairly complete solutions are obtained for some interesting special cases; most notably the computer file search problem.

Social utility and the gains from trade

The proposition that a country’s inhabitants will, or at least could, gain from participating in free international trade as opposed to remaining in a state of autarky, has long been believed, although only sketches of rigorous proofs have been supplied, notably those of Samuelson (1939, 1962), Kemp (1962), and Kenen (1957). 1 In this paper we shall pursue the question by developing the concept of a social utility function first formulated by Samuelson (1956). Full generality will be sacrificed in the interest of simplicity. We shall limit ourselves to the general framework of the Heckscher-OhlinSamuelson model, in which the factors of production are in fixed aggregate supply within countries, and are perfectly mobile among industries and without occupational preferences (cf. Samuelson (1953)). The production possibility set for the n final commodities which are assumed freely tradable internationally *,t zero transport costs isI assumed to be convex, and production is assumed to be carried out efficiently. Consumer demand is assumed generated by continuous, strictly monotone, and strictly convex preference orderings, which are represented by continuous concave utility functions Ui which attach zero utilities to zero bundles. We consider a class # of social welfare

Multi-agent resource allocation: an incomplete information perspective

Explores a multi-agent resource allocation problem in an environment of incomplete information. The paper posits the existence of a central policy maker who integrates information acquisition with decision making, in order to optimally allocate resources among multiple agents. The study focuses on three salient aspects: first, the policy maker uses a nonparametric revealed preference approach for the elicitation of each agents preference profiles. This allows the policy maker to avoid distorting the allocation decision and emerging with suboptimal allocations. Second, the process of information gathering and decision making is a challenging task in view of the extremely large numbers of possible profiles for each agent, even for problems of modest size. To find an optimal allocation, the policy maker can use schemes that utilize partial preference information to handle the complexity of the problem. Third, the incorporation of costs into the information process and the minimal assumptions made about the problem environment allow the policy maker to realistically analyze the resource allocation problem. >

A decision theoretic approach to information retrieval

We present the file search problem in a decision-theoretic framework, and discuss a variation of it that we call the common index problem. The goal of the common index problem is to return the best available record in the file, where best is in terms of a class of user preferences. We use dynamic programming to construct an optimal algorithm using two different optimality criteria, and we develop sufficient conditions for obtaining complete information.

Real National Income with Homothetic Preferences and a Fixed Distribution of Income

It was conjectured by Pigou that an increase in real national income, as reckoned in the prices of either the initial or the terminal period, would always correctly indicate an improvement in national welfare provided the increase referred to the aggregate income of a given group of persons with fixed preferences and a fixed proportional distribution of income among them. We show that if the individual preferences are assumed to be homothetic, and if by a welfare improvement one means respectively a potential improvement (in which losers can be compensated by gainers) or an actual improvement (in which all are gainers), then on either of these respective criteria Pigous conjecture holds true under these conditions if and only if individual preferences are identical.

Information Acquisition Policies for Resource Allocation Among Multiple Agents

This paper investigates a problem of resource allocation, where a manager allocates discrete resources among multiple agents in a team in a socially optimal manner. In making this allocation, the manager needs to understand the preference orders of the agents for the discrete resources. The manager does this by adopting an information acquisition policy. Three different information acquisition policies are investigated here. The trade off between the amount of information elicited and the costs involved are studied for each of the policies.

An analysis of human and computer decision-making capabilities

Abstract Decision theory is a formal basis for considering human decision making. It has typically focused on humans and even if the decision-maker is assisted in the process, it is assumed that the assistance is provided by another human. However, in the computer age the decision-maker is assisted more often than not by a computer. Hence in this paper we explore the rationale for an integrated human-computer information processor and consider the information processing capabilities of the human and the computer within a formal model of decision-making. The analysis for the computer is done assuming it has at least the capabilities of a decision support system.

A decision theoretic approach to file search

We investigate the relationship between algorithm construction and optimal decision processes. We provide a sufficient condition, a linear ordering over the experiment set, for when we can efficiently use an optimization approach for selecting a decision strategy. We demonstrate the linear ordering condition within the context of the file search problem; however, any problem whose representation satisfies the linear ordering condition is amenable to the optimization approach.

Device comparison of champion nanocrystal-ink based CZTSSe and CIGSSe solar cells: Capacitance spectroscopy

Capacitance spectroscopy has been used to compare charge carrier and defect properties of champion nanocrystal-ink based CZTSSe and CIGSSe solar cells, with efficiencies reported here at 9.2% and 14.2%, respectively. Differences in energy level, frequency/temperature response, and contributions to bulk conductivity have been identified for the different materials. Due to these differences, contributions to the free carrier density have been associated with a single defect for CIGSSe, while associated with two defects in CZTSSe. Additionally, carrier freeze-out out at low temperatures has been identified for both devices, contributing to increasing series resistance at low temperatures as determined from the bulk conductivity. In addition to differences in defect formation, CZTSSe has been characterized with a reduced Vbi when compared to CIGSSe.

A preference theory approach to decision analysis in resource allocation

This paper studies the allocation of discrete resources among multiple agents from a preference theory perspective. More specifically, the paper explores the process of decision making where:(a)information is obtained about the preference profiles of each agent(b)the information acquired is then used as a basis for finding a ‘socially’ optimal resource allocation, and(c)the costs involved in acquiring information are considered as an integral part of the process.