James C. Zachos

An early Cenozoic perspective on greenhouse warming and carbon-cycle dynamics.

Past episodes of greenhouse warming provide insight into the coupling of climate and the carbon cycle and thus may help to predict the consequences of unabated carbon emissions in the future.

TARGET ATMOSPHERIC CO2: WHERE SHOULD HUMANITY AIM?

Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 450 +/- 100 ppm, a level that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.

Evolution of early Cenozoic marine temperatures

The equator to high southern latitude sea surface and vertical temperature gradients are reconstructed from oxygen isotope values of planktonic and benthic foraminifers for the following five time intervals: late Paleocene, early Eocene, early middle Eocene, late Eocene, and early Oligocene. Paleotemperatures are calculated using standard oxygen isotope/temperature equations with adjustments to account for (1) variations in sea water δ18O related to changes in global ice volume over time and (2) latitudinal gradients in surface water δ18O. These reconstructions indicate that sea-surface temperatures (SST) of the Southern Oceans in the early Eocene were as high as 15°C, whereas temperatures during the late Paleocene and early middle Eocene reached maximum levels of 10°–12°C. By the late Eocene and early Oligocene high latitude SST had declined to 6 and 4°C, respectively. For most of the early Paleogene, low latitude sub-tropical temperatures remained constant and well within the range of Holocene temperatures (24°ndash;25°C) but by the late Eocene and early Oligocene declined to values in the range of 18° to 22°C. The late Paleogene apparent decline in tropical temperatures, however, might be artificial because of dissolution of near-surface foraminifera tests which biased sediment assemblages toward deeper-dwelling foraminifera. Moreover, according to recent plate reconstructions, it appears that the majority of sites upon which the late Eocene and early Oligocene tropical temperatures were previously established were located either in or near regions likely to have been influenced by upwelling. Global deepwater temperature on average paralleled southern ocean SST for most of the Paleogene. We speculate based on the overall timing and character of marine sea surface temperature variation during the Paleogene that some combination of both higher levels of greenhouse gases and increased heat transport was responsible for the exceptional high-latitude warmth of the early Eocene.

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global

High‐resolution (104 years) deep‐sea foraminiferal stable isotope records of the Eocene‐Oligocene climate transition

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Assessing “dangerous climate change”: Required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated

Extreme warming of mid-latitude coastal ocean during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: Inferences from TEX86 and isotope data

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