James Chalmers

Long-term trends in first hospitalization for heart failure and subsequent survival between 1986 and 2003: a population study of 5.1 million people.

Background— We examined whether population-level hospitalization rates for heart failure (HF) and subsequent survival have continued to improve since the turn of the century. We also examined trends in the prescribing of evidence-based pharmacological treatment for HF. Methods and Results— All patients in Scotland hospitalized with a first episode of HF between 1986 and 2003 were followed up until death or the end of 2004. Prescriptions of evidence-based treatments issued from 1997 to 2003 by a sample of primary care practices were also examined. A total of 116 556 individuals (52.6% women) had a first hospital discharge for HF. Age-adjusted first hospitalization rates for HF (per 100 000; 95% CI in parentheses) rose from 124 (119 to 129) in 1986 to 162 (157 to 168) in 1994 and then fell to 105 (101 to 109) in 2003 in men; in women, they rose from 128 (123 to 132) in 1986 to 160 (155 to 165) in 1993, falling to 101 (97 to 105) in 2003. Case-fatality rates fell steadily over the period. Adjusted 30-day case-fatality rates fell after discharge (adjusted odds [2003 versus 1986] 0.59 [95% CI 0.45 to 0.63] in men and 0.77 [95% CI 0.67 to 0.88] in women). Adjusted 1- and 5-year survival improved similarly. Median survival increased from 1.33 to 2.34 years in men and from 1.32 to 1.79 years in women. Age-adjusted prescribing rates for angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, β-blockers, and spironolactone increased from 1997 to 2003 (all P<0.0001 for trend). Conclusions— After rising between 1986 and 1994, rates of first hospitalization for HF declined. Case-fatality rates also fell. Prescribing rates for HF therapies increased from 1997 to 2003. These findings suggest that improvements in the prevention and treatment of HF may have had progressive, sustained effects on outcomes at the population level; however, prognosis remains poor in HF.

Outcomes of elective induction of labour compared with expectant management: population based study

Objective To determine neonatal outcomes (perinatal mortality and special care unit admission) and maternal outcomes (mode of delivery, delivery complications) of elective induction of labour compared with expectant management. Design Retrospective cohort study using an unselected population database. Setting Consultant and midwife led obstetric units in Scotland 1981-2007. Participants 1 271 549 women with singleton pregnancies of 37 weeks or more gestation. Interventions Outcomes of elective induction of labour (induction of labour with no recognised medical indication) at 37, 38, 39, 40, and 41 weeks’ gestation compared with those of expectant management (continuation of pregnancy to either spontaneous labour, induction of labour or caesarean section at a later gestation). Main outcome measures Extended perinatal mortality, mode of delivery, postpartum haemorrhage, obstetric anal sphincter injury, and admission to a neonatal or special care baby unit. Outcomes were adjusted for age at delivery, parity, year of birth, birth weight, deprivation category, and, where appropriate, mode of delivery. Results At each gestation between 37 and 41 completed weeks, elective induction of labour was associated with a decreased odds of perinatal mortality compared with expectant management (at 40 weeks’ gestation 0.08% (37/44 764) in the induction of labour group versus 0.18% (627/350 643) in the expectant management group; adjusted odds ratio 0.39, 99% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.63), without a reduction in the odds of spontaneous vertex delivery (at 40 weeks’ gestation 79.9% (35 775/44 778) in the induction of labour group versus 73.7% (258 665/350 791) in the expectant management group; adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 1.22 to 1.31). Admission to a neonatal unit was, however, increased in association with elective induction of labour at all gestations before 41 weeks (at 40 weeks’ gestation 8.0% (3605/44 778) in the induction of labour group compared with 7.3% (25 572/350 791) in the expectant management group; adjusted odds ratio 1.14, 1.09 to 1.20). Conclusion Although residual confounding may remain, our findings indicate that elective induction of labour at term gestation can reduce perinatal mortality in developed countries without increasing the risk of operative delivery.

Centile charts for birthweight for gestational age for Scottish singleton births

BackgroundCentile charts of birthweight for gestational age are used to identify low birthweight babies. The charts currently used in Scotland are based on data from the 1970s and require updating given changes in birthweight and in the measurement of gestational age since then.MethodsRoutinely collected data of 100,133 singleton births occurring in Scotland from 1998–2003 were used to construct new centile charts using the LMS method.ResultsCentile charts for birthweight for sex and parity groupings were constructed for singleton birth and compared to existing charts used in Scottish hospitals.ConclusionMean birthweight has been shown to have increased over recent decades. The differences shown between the new and currently used centiles confirm the need for more up-to-date centiles for birthweight for gestational age.

The Effect of Changing Patterns of Obstetric Care in Scotland (1980–2004) on Rates of Preterm Birth and Its Neonatal Consequences: Perinatal Database Study

Jane Norman and colleagues analyzed linked perinatal surveillance data in Scotland and find that between 1980 and 2004 increases in spontaneous and medically induced preterm births contributed equally to the rising rate of preterm births.

Coronary heart disease mortality among young adults in Scotland in relation to social inequalities: time trend study

Objective To examine recent trends and social inequalities in age specific coronary heart disease mortality. Design Time trend analysis using joinpoint regression. Setting Scotland, 1986-2006. Participants Men and women aged 35 years and over. Main outcome measures Age adjusted and age, sex, and deprivation specific coronary heart disease mortality. Results Persistent sixfold social differentials in coronary heart disease mortality were seen between the most deprived and the most affluent groups aged 35-44 years. These differentials diminished with increasing age but equalised only above 85 years. Between 1986 and 2006, overall, age adjusted coronary heart disease mortality decreased by 61% in men and by 56% in women. Among middle aged and older adults, mortality continued to decrease fairly steadily throughout the period. However, coronary heart disease mortality levelled from 1994 onwards among young men and women aged 35-44 years. Rates in men and women aged 45-54 showed similar flattening from about 2003. Rates in women aged 55-64 may also now be flattening. The flattening of coronary heart disease mortality in younger men and women was confined to the two most deprived fifths. Conclusions Premature death from coronary heart disease remains a major contributor to social inequalities. Furthermore, the flattening of the decline in mortality for coronary heart disease among younger adults may represent an early warning sign. The observed trends were confined to the most deprived groups. Marked deterioration in medical management of coronary heart disease seems implausible. Unfavourable trends in the major risk factors for coronary heart disease (smoking and poor diet) thus provide the most likely explanation for these inequalities.

Relation between socioeconomic deprivation and death from a first myocardial infarction in Scotland: population based analysis

Health policy now explicitly addresses the increasing inequalities arising within many countries.1 Although it is generally accepted that socioeconomic factors influence the overall rates of coronary heart disease events,2 studies of case fatality after admission to hospital for acute myocardial infarction show only modest socioeconomic gradients.3 By focusing on those who survive to reach hospital, however, such studies may underestimate the true influence of socioeconomic deprivation. Reports suggest that around 70-80% of deaths within 30 days of a myocardial infarction occur before admission to hospital, and this proportion increases with age.4 We therefore examined the effect of socioeconomic deprivation not only on case fatality in patients admitted with myocardial infarction but also on the risk of death before admission. Data were obtained from the Scottish Morbidity Record and General Register Office on all Scottish residents for whom a first myocardial …

Is there equity of service delivery and intermediate outcomes in South Asians with type 2 diabetes? Analysis of DARTS database and summary of UK publications

BACKGROUND There are doubts whether diabetes care is equitable across UK ethnic groups. We examined processes and outcomes in South Asians with diabetes and reviewed the UK literature. METHODS We used name search methods to identify South Asians in a regional diabetes database. We compared prevalence rates, processes and outcomes of care between November 2003 and December 2004. We used standard literature search techniques. RESULTS The prevalence of diabetes in South Asians was 3-4 times higher than non-South Asians. South Asians were 1.11 times (95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.16) more likely to have a structured review. South Asian women were 1.10 times more likely to have a record of body mass index (95% CI 1.04, 1.16). HbA1c levels were 1.03 times higher (95% CI 1.00, 1.06) among South Asians, retinopathy 1.36 times more common (95% CI 1.03, 1.78) and hypertension 0.71 times as common (95% CI 0.58, 0.87). CONCLUSIONS We found evidence of equity in many aspects of diabetes care for South Asians in Tayside. The finding of higher HbA1c and more retinopathy among South Asians needs explanation and a service response. These findings from a region with a small non-White population largely support the recent findings from other parts of the UK.

Contribution of smoking during pregnancy to inequalities in stillbirth and infant death in Scotland 1994-2003: retrospective population based study using hospital maternity records

Objective To quantify the contribution of smoking during pregnancy to social inequalities in stillbirth and infant death. Design Population based retrospective cohort study. Setting Scottish hospitals between 1994 and 2003. Participants Records of 529 317 singleton live births and 2699 stillbirths delivered at 24-44 weeks’ gestation in Scotland from 1994 to 2003. Main outcome measures Rates of stillbirth and infant, neonatal, and post-neonatal death for each deprivation category (fifths of postcode sector Carstairs-Morris scores); contribution of smoking during pregnancy (“no,” “yes,” or “not known”) in explaining social inequalities in these outcomes. Results The stillbirth rate increased from 3.8 per 1000 in the least deprived group to 5.9 per 1000 in the most deprived group. For infant deaths, the rate increased from 3.2 per 1000 in the least deprived group to 5.4 per 1000 in the most deprived group. Stillbirths were 56% more likely (odds ratio 1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.38 to 1.77) and infant deaths were 72% more likely (1.72, 1.50 to 1.97) in the most deprived compared with the least deprived category. Smoking during pregnancy accounted for 38% of the inequality in stillbirths and 31% of the inequality in infant deaths. Conclusions Both tackling smoking during pregnancy and reducing infants’ exposure to tobacco smoke in the postnatal environment may help to reduce stillbirths and infant deaths overall and to reduce the socioeconomic inequalities in stillbirths and infant deaths perhaps by as much as 30-40%. However, action on smoking on its own is unlikely to be sufficient and other measures to improve the social circumstances, social support, and health of mothers and infants are needed.

The changing epidemiology of infantile hypertrophic pyloric stenosis in Scotland

Background: The aetiology of infantile hypertrophic pyloric stenosis (IHPS) has not been fully elucidated. Since the 1990s, a sharp decline in IHPS has been reported in various countries. Recent research from Sweden reported a correlation between falling rates of IHPS and of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). This was attributed to a reduction in the number of infants sleeping in the prone position following the “Back to Sleep” campaign. Objectives: To describe the changing epidemiology of IHPS in Scotland, to examine the relationship between IHPS and SIDS rates and to examine trends in other factors that may explain the observed reduction in IHPS incidence. Design: Incidence rates of IHPS and SIDS were derived from routine data and their relationship analysed. Trends in mean maternal age, maternal smoking, mean birth weight and breastfeeding rates were also examined. Setting: The whole of Scotland between 1981 and 2004. Results: IHPS incidence fell from 4.4 to 1.4 per 1000 live births in Scotland between 1981 and 2004. Rates were consistently higher in males, although the overall incidence patterns in males and females were similar. Rates showed a positive relationship with deprivation. The fall in the incidence of IHPS preceded the fall in SIDS by 2 years and the incidence of SIDS displayed less variability than that of IHPS. Significant temporal trends were also observed in other maternal and infant characteristics. Conclusion: There has been a marked reduction in Scotland’s IHPS incidence, but this is unlikely to be a consequence of a change in infant sleeping position.

Comparison of risk factors for cerebral palsy in twins and singletons

The aim of this study was to investigate the difference in rates of cerebral palsy (CP) between singletons and twins by considering factors that may be predictive of CP. Data were taken from the Scottish Register of Children with a Motor Deficit of Central Origin and the Scottish Morbidity Record series. All children born in Scotland between 1984 and 1990 inclusive comprised the cohort. There were 646 children with CP (370 males, 276 females) of whom 57 were from twin pregnancies. Prevalence of CP was higher in twins than in singletons. Also, for singleton and twin births, the prevalence of CP was higher for infants who had low birthweight for gestational age (GA), were preterm, and who were male. Prevalence of CP by GA followed a different pattern for twins than for singletons, being lower for twins in the middle range of GAs than for singletons. After allowing for GA and birthweight, twins appeared to be at increased risk for CP compared with singletons. The type of CP in singletons and twins also differed with 64.9% of twins having spastic bilateral CP compared with 48.5% for singletons. The aetiology of CP in twins and singletons may differ.