James E. Bossert

An Investigation of Flow Regimes Affecting the Mexico City Region

Abstract The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used to investigate the detailed mesoscale flow structure over the Mexico City region for a 3-day period in February 1991. The model simulation is compared with rawinsonde and tethersonde profile data and measurements from two surface stations in the southwestern part of Mexico City. The model results show that downward momentum transfer from aloft increases southerly winds near the surface on the first case day, effectively sweeping pollution from the basin surrounding Mexico City. Thermally driven circulations within the basin, in adjacent valleys, and over the slope of the Mexican Plateau strongly influence winds within the Mexico City basin on the second case day. These wind systems produce a complex interaction of flows, culminating in the propagation of a 1-km-deep density current circulation through Mexico City that displaces the polluted basin air mass aloft. Regional northeasterly flows develop early in the morning of the third case day ...

The Interaction of Katabatic Flow and Mountain Waves. Part I: Observations and Idealized Simulations

Abstract The mutual interaction of katabatic flow in the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) and topographically forced gravity waves is investigated. Due to the nonlinear nature of these phenomena, analysis focuses on information obtained from the 1993 Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain field program held at the mountain–canyon–plains interface near Eldorado Canyon, Colorado, and idealized simulations. Perturbations to katabatic flow by mountain waves, relative to their more steady form in quiescent conditions, are found to be caused by dynamic pressure effects. Based on a local Froude number climatology, case study analysis, and the simulations, the dynamic pressure effect is theorized to occur as gravity wave pressure perturbations are transmitted through the atmospheric column to the surface and, through altered horizontal pressure gradient forcing, to the surface-based katabatic flows. It is proposed that these perturbations are a routine feature in the atmospheric record and represent a significant p...

The potential and promise of physics-based wildfire simulation

Abstract Wildfire — that is the unmanaged, uncontrolled burning of forests, brushlands, or grasslands with or without the presence of structures — is an increasing threat to society. We briefly review the extent of this threat, particularly its relationship to changes in the systems it threatens, and discuss its management. Recent developments in computer models of wildfire are reviewed and their application to several aspects of the wildfire threat are proposed in the context of a national resource. The requirements of an operational wildfire prediction center are discussed as a method to leverage existing and near-term capabilities into new tools to help mitigate the potential threat of this natural process.

An Observational and Prognostic Numerical Investigation of Complex Terrain Dispersion

Abstract The Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain Program conducted a field experiment at the interface of the Rocky Mountains and the Great Plains in the winter of 1991. Extensive meteorological observations were taken in northeastern Colorado near Rocky Flats to characterize overnight conditions in the region. Simultaneously, a tracer dispersion experiment using over 130 samplers to track plume development was conducted by Rocky Flats facility personnel. These two datasets provided an opportunity to investigate the accuracy and applicability of a fully prognostic, primitive equation, mesoscale model to the simulation of complex terrain dispersion. Meteorological conditions in the Rocky Flats region are forecast for selected case nights using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System initialized with sounding data taken during the experiment. The forecast winds and temperature are used in a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to predict tracer plume transport. The results of both models are compared to...

The Interaction of Katabatic Flow and Mountain Waves. Part II: Case Study Analysis and Conceptual Model

Via numerical analysis of detailed simulations of an early September 1993 case night, the authors develop a conceptual model of the interaction of katabatic flow in the nocturnal boundary layer with mountain waves (MKI). A companion paper (Part I) describes the synoptic and mesoscale observations of the case night from the Atmospheric Studies in Complex Terrain (ASCOT) experiment and idealized numerical simulations that manifest components of the conceptual model of MKI presented herein. The reader is also referred to Part I for detailed scientific background and motivation. The interaction of these phenomena is complicated and nonlinear since the amplitude, wavelength, and vertical structure of the mountain-wave system developed by flow over the barrier owes some portion of its morphology to the evolving atmospheric stability in which the drainage flows develop. Simultaneously, katabatic flows are impacted by the topographically induced gravity wave evolution, which may include significantly changing wavelength, amplitude, flow magnitude, and wave breaking behavior. In addition to effects caused by turbulence (including scouring), perturbations to the leeside gravity wave structure at altitudes physically distant from the surface-based katabatic flow layer can be reflected in the katabatic flow by transmission through the atmospheric column. The simulations show that the evolution of atmospheric structure aloft can create local variability in the surface pressure gradient force governing katabatic flow. Variability is found to occur on two scales, on the meso- due to evolution of the mountain-wave system on the order of one hour, and on the microscale due to rapid wave evolution (short wavelength) and wave breaking–induced fluctuations. It is proposed that the MKI mechanism explains a portion of the variability in observational records of katabatic flow.

Ventilation of liquefied petroleum gas components from the Valley of Mexico

The saturated hydrocarbons propane and the butane isomers are both indirect greenhouse gases and key species in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Leakage of LPG and its component alkanes/alkenes is now thought to explain a significant fraction of the volatile organic burden and oxidative potential in the basin which confines Mexico City. Propane and the butanes, however, are stable enough to escape from the basin. The gas Chromatographie measurements which have drawn attention to their sources within the urban area are used here to estimate rates of ventilation into the free troposphere. The calculations are centered on several well studied February/March pollution episodes. Carbon monoxide observations and emissions data are first exploited to provide a rough time constant for the removal of typical inert pollutant species from the valley. The timescale obtained is validated through an examination of meteorological simulations of three-dimensional flow. Heuristic arguments and transport modeling establish that propane and the butanes are distributed through the basin in a manner analogous to CO despite differing emissions functions. Ventilation rates and mass loadings yield outbound fluxes in a box model type computation. Estimated in this fashion, escape from the Valley of Mexico constitutes of the order of half of 1% of the northern hemispheric inputs for both propane and n-butane. Uncertainties in the calculations are detailed and include factors such as flow into the basin via surface winds and the size of the polluted regime. General quantification of the global propane and butane emissions from large cities will entail studies of this type in a variety of locales.

Aspects of regional-scale flows in mountainous terrain

Abstract Mountaintop data from remote stations in the central Rocky Mountains have been used to analyze terrain-induced regional (meso-β to meso-α) scale circulation patterns. The circulation consists of a diurnally oscillating wind regime, varying between daytime inflow toward, and nocturnal outflow from, the highest terrain. Both individual case days and longer term averages reveal these circulation characteristics. The persistence and broadscale organization of nocturnal outflow at mountaintop, well removed from valley drainage processes, demonstrates that this flow is part of a distinct regime within the hierarchy of terrain-induced wind systems. The diurnal cycle of summertime convective storm development imparts a strong influence upon regional-scale circulation patterns. Subcloud cooling processes, associated with deep moist convection, alter the circulation by producing early and abrupt shifts in the regional winds from an inflow to outflow direction. These wind events occur frequently when moist ...

Atmospheric/hydrologic models for the Rio Grande Basin: simulations of precipitation variability

Abstract The headwaters of the Rio Grande are located in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado and the upper portions of the river are fed primarily by snowmelt from winter storms. In contrast, the lower portions of the river accumulate runoff from thunderstorms of the summer monsoon season. Thus, the waters of the Rio Grande are strongly influenced by regional climate and could be vulnerable to climate change. In order to study water resources in the Rio Grande Basin and how they may be affected by changes in regional climate, a modeling system, which relies on the use of coupled atmospheric, runoff, and ground water models, is being developed. Preliminary work on the project has focused on winter precipitation simulations of the upper Rio Grande Basin and evaluation of the suitability of the atmospheric model for simulating regional climate. This paper describes the spatial and temporal precipitation variability predicted by this model. To examine the temporal variability, results of simulations carried out with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), at 20 km resolution, are presented for the month of January 1996, representing a dry extreme for the region, and January 1993, representing a recent wet extreme. Results are also presented of a case study with higher resolution (5 km) over the upper Rio Grande Basin to examine spatial variability of the snowpack within complex terrain. The simulation results are compared to observations of daily-accumulated precipitation in the region. The comparisons of model predicted precipitation indicate that the RAMS model can reproduce the interannual changes in precipitation patterns found in the western US. In the month of January 1996, both RAMS and observed precipitation are highest in the northern mountain ranges of the domain. Likewise, in the month of January 1993, both predicted and observed precipitation in the southern tier of states are dramatically higher. Results of the simulations with increased model grid resolution indicate a modest improvement of precipitation estimates with the finer grid resolution over the Rio Grande Basin.

Mexico City and the biogeochemistry of global urbanization

Mexico City is far advanced in its urban evolution, and cities in currently developing nations may soon follow a similar course. This paper investigates the strengths and weaknesses of infrastructures for the emerging megacities. The major driving force for infrastructure change in Mexico City is concern over air quality. Air chemistry data from recent field campaigns have been used to calculate fluxes in the atmosphere of the Valley of Mexico, for compounds that are important to biogeochemistry including methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), ammonia (NH3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx and NOy), soot, and dust. Leakage of liquified petroleum gas approached 10% during sampling periods, and automotive pollutant sources in Mexico City were found to match those in developed cities, despite a lower vehicle-to-person ratio of 0.1. Ammonia is released primarily from residential areas, at levels sufficient to titrate pollutant acids into particles across the entire basin. Enhancements of reduced nitrogen and hydrocarbons in the vapor phase skew the distribution of NOy species towards lower average deposition velocities. Partly as a result, downwind nutrient deposition occurs on a similar scale as nitrogen fixation across Central America, and augments marine nitrate upwelling. Dust suspension from unpaved roads and from the bed of Lake Texcoco was found to be comparable to that occurring on the periphery of the Sahara, Arabian, and Gobi deserts. In addition, sodium chloride (NaCl) in the dust may support heterogeneous chlorine oxide (ClOx) chemistry. The insights from our Mexico City analysis have been tentatively applied to the upcoming urbanization of Asia.

Case study: wildfire visualization

The ability to forecast the progress of crisis events would significantly reduce human suffering and loss of life, the destruction of property and expenditures for assessment and recovery. Los Alamos National Laboratory has established a scientific thrust in crisis forecasting to address this national challenge. In the initial phase of this project, scientists at Los Alamos are developing computer models to predict the spread of a wildfire. Visualization of the results of the wildfire simulation will be used by scientists to assess the quality of the simulation and eventually by fire personnel as a visual forecast of the wildfires evolution. The fire personnel and scientists want the visualization to look as realistic as possible without compromising scientific accuracy. This paper describes how the visualization was created, analyzes the tools and approach that were used, and suggests directions for future work and research.