James G. Webster

A THEORY OF TELEVISION PROGRAM CHOICE

Researchers have employed different theoretical frameworks to predict patterns of television program choice. Despite varied theoretical origins, such efforts typically assume that program choice is systematically related to program content. A substantial body of marketing research, however, has provided evidence that choice is determined by scheduling—not content—factors, drawing into question the explanatory power of current theories. This article integrates disparate theoretical perspectives into a single model that is consistent with empirically documented patterns of choice.

Media consumption across platforms: Identifying user-defined repertoires:

New media have made available a wide range of platforms and content choices. However, audiences cope with abundant choices by using more narrowly defined repertoires. Unfortunately, we know little of how users create repertoires across media platforms. This study uses factor analysis to identify user-defined repertoires from data obtained by following 495 users throughout an entire day. Results indicate the presence of four repertoires that are powerfully tied to the rhythms of people’s daily lives. These were in turn explained by a combination of factors such as audience availability and individual demographics.

Program audience duplication: A study of television inheritance effects

Inheritance effects, especially high levels of audience duplication between adjacent programs, are a widely observed but little understood feature of audience behavior. This study places inheritance effects within a theoretical model of television program choice that attributes the general phenomenon to underlying patterns of audience availability. The absolute level of audience duplication between adjacent programs broadcast on the same network is determined by the rating of each program, the structure of available program options, and similarities in program type.

The internet audience: Web use as mass behavior

We conceive of the Internet as a medium of mass communication, and we analyze 2 behavioral features of its audience: size and duplication. Internet audiences are highly concentrated in the most popular Web sites, conforming to Paretos Law. Duplication across pairs of Web sites is explained by the size o f the audiences unique to each site in the pair, conforming to Goodhardts duplication of viewing law. In addition, similarities o f content or domain modestly increase duplication across Web sites. A 4-variable model explains over 80% o f the variance in duplication.

Channel repertoires: Using peoplemeter data in Beijing

Channel repertoires, the subsets of available channels that viewers actually watch, have typically been measured by relying on respondent recall. Using minute-by-minute peoplemeter data from Beijing, this study operationalized channel repertoire as the channels actually watched for 10 or more consecutive minutes during the week. On average, Chinese viewers used 13 channels, about one third of those available. Older network and local channels accounted for most of the time spent viewing. A regression model was established in which total time spent viewing TV and cable subscription explained 65% of the total variance in repertoire size.

The impact of group viewing on patterns of television program choice

This study addressed a discrepancy between theories of program choice and observed audience behavior. It found that expected patterns of choice are significantly enhanced when viewing groups are constant over time.

Cultural Proximity and Audience Behavior: The Role of Language in Patterns of Polarization and Multicultural Fluency

Cultural proximity is a multidimensional concept, most often used to explain media preferences across national boundaries. The present study extends the construct, revealing its power to explain audience formation within a multicultural society. Portable People Meter data from Arbitron, Inc., was used to compare patterns of television and radio use across Spanish-speaking Hispanics, English-speaking Hispanics, and non-Hispanics in Houston, Texas. The results indicate that language preferences play a powerful role in determining audience behavior. Furthermore, while English-speaking Hispanics exhibit multicultural fluency, the other two populations show evidence of cultural polarization.

Structural determinants of exposure to television: The case of repeat viewing

This study applies a structuralist approach to explain repeat viewing — the extent to which the audience for one program watches subsequent episodes. Contrary to early research, which characterized such behavior as constant across time and program types, this research finds considerable variation among program categories. However, three predictors: a) the programs scheduling characteristics, b) the average program rating, and c) continuing versus non‐continuing story line, combined to explain 83% of the variance in repeat viewing levels. The implications for research and theory on exposure to television are discussed.

Structural determinants of the television news audience

This study examined the impact that program scheduling and market characteristics had on peoples exposure to the early evening local news. Three factors combined to explain 81% of the variation in local news ratings across the U.S.: a stations network news rating, the lead‐in rating for the local news, and the size of the available television audience. We discussed how such structural factors might be better integrated into research and theory that emphasize individual characteristics as determinants of exposure to television programming.

Audience Flow Past and Present: Television Inheritance Effects Reconsidered

Television inheritance effects, inordinately high levels of audience duplication between programs scheduled back-to-back, have helped broadcasters manage audience flow for decades. This study uses 2004 national peoplemeter data collected by Nielsen to replicate a study of inheritance effects done 20 years earlier. It finds the same predictors explain either 96% or 58% of variance in the duplicated audience, depending upon the measure of duplication that is used. The research resolves discrepancies in the literature on inheritance effects and casts serious doubt on the common practice of inferring audience duplication from the strength of correlations between lead-in and lead-out program ratings.