James H. Dieterich

A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering

Seismicity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events in which the distribution of initial conditions over the population of nucleation sources and stress- ing history control the timing of earthquakes. The model is implemented using solutions for nucleation of unstable fault slip on faults with experimentally derived rate- and state- dependent fault properties. This yields a general state-variable constitutive formulation for rate of earthquake production resulting from an applied stressing history. To illustrate and test the model some characteristics of seismicity following a stress step have been explored. It is proposed that various features of earthquake clustering arise from sensi- tivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and interprets aftershock parameters in terms of stress change and stressing rate. Earthquake data appear to support a model prediction that aftershock duration, defined as the time for rates to return to the back- ground seismicity rate, is proportional to mainshock recurrence time. Observed spatial and temporal clustering of earthquake pairs arises as a consequence of the spatial depen- dence of stress changes of the first event of the pair and stress-sensitive time-dependent nucleation. Applications of the constitutive formulation are not restricted to the simple stress step models investigated here. It may be applied to stressing histories of arbitrary complexity. The apparent success at modeling clustering phenomena suggests the possibil- ity of using the formulation to estimate short- to intermediate-term earthquake probabil- ities following occurrence of other earthquakes and for inversion of temporal variations of earthquake rates for changes in driving stress.

Time-dependent friction and the mechanics of stick-slip

Time-dependent increase of static friction is characteristic of rock friction undera variety of experimental circumstances. Data presented here show an analogous velocity-dependent effect. A theor of friction is proposed that establishes a common basis for static and sliding friction. Creep at points of contact causes increases in friction that are proportional to the logarithm of the time that the population of points of contact exist. For static friction that time is the time of stationary contact. For sliding friction the time of contact is determined by the critical displacement required to change the population of contacts and the slip velocity. An analysis of a one-dimensional spring and slider system shows that experimental observations establishing the transition from stable sliding to stick-slip to be a function of normal stress, stiffness and surface finish are a consequence of time-dependent friction.

Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-and state-dependent strength

Abstract Dieterich, J.H., 1992. Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate- and state-dependent strength. In: T. Mikumo, K. Aki, M. Ohnaka, L.J. Ruff and P.K.P. Spudich (Editors), Earthquake Source Physics and Earthquake Precursors. Tectonophysics, 211: 115–134. Faults with rate- and state-dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability. Calculations with a plane-strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch. The dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip. The critical length is a function of normal stress, loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include Dc, the characteristic slip distance. If slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size, the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches. Solutions have been obtained for a uniform, fixed-patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane-strain model. Over a wide range of conditions, above the steady-state stress, the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases. Because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to Dc, the moment of premonitory slip scales by D3c. The scaling of Dc is currently an open question. Unless Dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults, premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods. Excluding the possibility that Dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake, then the source dimensions of the smallest earthquakes in a region provide an upper limit for the size of the nucleation patch.

Direct observation of frictional contacts: New insights for state-dependent properties

Rocks and many other materials display a rather complicated, but characteristic, dependence of friction on sliding history. These effects are well-described by empirical rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulations which have been utilized for analysis of fault slip and earthquake processes. We present a procedure for direct quantitative microscopic observation of frictional contacts during slip. The observations reveal that frictional state dependence represents an increase of contact area with contact age. Transient changes of sliding resistance correlate with changes in contact area and arise from shifts of contact population age. Displacement-dependent replacement of contact populations is shown to cause the diagnostic evolution of friction over a characteristic sliding distance that occurs whenever slip begins or sliding conditions change.

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2–1.0 bars (0.02–0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000. The probability of a Mw = 6.9 earthquake within 50 km of Osaka during 1997–2007 is estimated to have risen from 5–6% before the Kobe earthquake to 7–11% afterward; during 1997–2027, it is estimated to have risen from 14–16% before Kobe to 16–22%.

Finite element modeling of surface deformation associated with volcanism

Theoretical analyses of observed vertical and horizontal ground surface deformations near active volcanoes, particularly on Kilauea volcano in Hawaii, have led to useful estimates of the location and shape of subsurface magma reservoirs. One of the major shortcomings of the various existing elastic models is that they have very similar near-field vertical deformations and they do not explain observed differences between vertical and horizontal deformations. Finite element models appear to offer better fits between observed and computed data. Deformations were computed for idealized magma reservoirs of various shapes: spheres, horizontal lenses, vertical plugs, sills, and dikes of various inclinations. The measured surface deformations from the summit magma reservoir of Kilauea can be approximated by a group of vertical plugs whose tops come within 1 km of the surface; surface deformation of the lower east rift zone of Kilauea appears best explained as being produced by increased magma pressure in a 45° south-dipping dike whose top is about 1 km below the surface.

The frictional properties of a simulated gouge having a fractal particle distribution

The frictional properties of a layer of simulated Westerly granite fault gouge sandwiched between sliding blocks of Westerly granite have been measured in a high-speed servo-controlled double-direct shear apparatus. Most gouge layers were prepared to have a self-similar particle distribution with a fractal dimension of 2.6. The upper fractal limit was varied between 45 and 710 μm. Some gouges were prepared with all particles in the range between 360 and 710 μm. In each experiment the sliding velocity was cyclically alternated between 1 and 10 μms−1 and the coefficient of friction μm and its transient parameters a, b and Dc were measured as functions of displacement. In addition to the particle size distribution, the following experimental variables were also investigated: the layer thickness (1 and 3 mm), the roughness of the sliding surfaces (Nos 60 and 600 grit) and the normal stress (10 and 25 MPa). Some of the sample assemblies were epoxy impregnated following a run so the gouge structure could be microscopically examined in thin section. We observed that gouges which were initially non-fractal evolved to a fractal distribution with dimension 2.6. Gouges which had an initial fractal distribution remained fractal. When the sliding blocks had smooth surfaces, the coefficient of friction was relatively low and was independent of the particle distribution. In these cases, strong velocity weakening was observed throughout the experiment and the transient parameters a, b and Dc, remained almost constant. When the sliding blocks had rough surfaces, the coefficient of friction was larger and more dependent on the particle distribution. Velocity strengthening was observed initially but evolved to velocity weakening with increased sliding displacement. All three transient parameters changed with increasing displacement. The a and b values were about three times as large for rough surfaces as for smooth. The characteristic displacement Dc was not sensitive to surface roughness but was the only transient parameter which was sensitive to the normal stress. For the case of rough surfaces, the coefficient of friction of the 1 mm thick gouge was significantly larger than that for the 3 mm thick layers. Many of these observations can be explained by a micromechanical model in which the stress in the gouge layer is heterogeneous. The applied normal and shear stresses are supported by ‘grain bridges’ which span the layer and which are continually forming and failing. In this model, the frictional properties of the gouge are largely determined by the dominant failure mode of the bridging structures.

Imaging surface contacts: power law contact distributions and contact stresses in quartz, calcite, glass and acrylic plastic

A procedure has been developed to obtain microscope images of regions of contact between roughened surfaces of transparent materials, while the surfaces are subjected to static loads or undergoing frictional slip. Static loading experiments with quartz, calcite, soda-lime glass and acrylic plastic at normal stresses to 30 MPa yield power law distributions of contact areas from the smallest contacts that can be resolved (3.5 µm2) up to a limiting size that correlates with the grain size of the abrasive grit used to roughen the surfaces. In each material, increasing normal stress results in a roughly linear increase of the real area of contact. Mechanisms of contact area increase are by growth of existing contacts, coalescence of contacts and appearance of new contacts. Mean contacts stresses are consistent with the indentation strength of each material. Contact size distributions are insensitive to normal stress indicating that the increase of contact area is approximately self-similar. The contact images and contact distributions are modeled using simulations of surfaces with random fractal topographies. The contact process for model fractal surfaces is represented by the simple expedient of removing material at regions where surface irregularities overlap. Synthetic contact images created by this approach reproduce observed characteristics of the contacts and demonstrate that the exponent in the power law distributions depends on the scaling exponent used to generate the surface topography.

The use of earthquake rate changes as a stress meter at Kilauea volcano.

Stress changes in the Earths crust are generally estimated from model calculations that use near-surface deformation as an observational constraint. But the widespread correlation of changes of earthquake activity with stress has led to suggestions that stress changes might be calculated from earthquake occurrence rates obtained from seismicity catalogues. Although this possibility has considerable appeal, because seismicity data are routinely collected and have good spatial and temporal resolution, the method has not yet proven successful, owing to the nonlinearity of earthquake rate changes with respect to both stress and time. Here, however, we present two methods for inverting earthquake rate data to infer stress changes, using a formulation for the stress- and time-dependence of earthquake rates. Application of these methods at Kilauea volcano, in Hawaii, yields good agreement with independent estimates, indicating that earthquake rates can provide a practical remote-sensing stress meter.

Two models for earthquake forerunners

SummarySimilar precursory phenomena have been observed before earthquakes in the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, and China. Two quite different physical models are used to explain these phenomena. According to a model developed by US seismologists, the so-called dilatancy diffusion model, the earthquake occurs near maximum stress, following a period of dilatant crack expansion. Diffusion of water in and out of the dilatant volume is required to explain the recovery of seismic velocity before the earthquake. According to a model developed by Soviet scientists growth of cracks is also involved but diffusion of water in and out of the focal region is not required. With this model, the earthquake is assumed to occur during a period of falling stress and recovery of velocity here is due to crack closure as stress relaxes. In general, the dilatancy diffusion model gives a peaked precursor form, whereas the dry model gives a bay form, in which recovery is well under way before the earthquake. A number of field observations should help to distinguish between the two models: study of post-earthquake recovery, time variation of stress and pore pressure in the focal region, the occurrence of pre-existing faults, and any changes in direction of precursory phenomena during the anomalous period.