James L. Beck

Parole decision-making: A salient factor score

Abstract Although considerable effort during the past thirty years has been devoted to the attempted construction of actuarial aids for parole selection, such devices have not generally been adopted by paroling agencies for operational use. One recent exception is the United States Board of Parole which has commenced usage of an actuarial device, termed a “salient factor score,” as a risk assessment aid in conjunction with explicit parole decision-making guidelines. This paper describes the construction, validation, and operational usage of this device.

Recidivism among Released Federal Prisoners Salient Factor Score and Five-Year Follow-Up

The salient factor score is an actuarial device used by the United States Parole Commission as an aid in assessing a federal prisoners likelihood of recidivism after release. This device was originally constructed and validated on random samples of released federal prisoners using a two-year follow-up period of each case with “recidivism” defined as any new commitment of sixty days or more or return to prison as a parole violator. In this research note, a further examination of the salient factor score is described using a five-year follow-up period for each case. To focus upon the predictive power of the salient factor score with regard to particularly serious new criminal conduct, “recidivism” is defined as the presence of a new sentence of imprisonment exceeding one year for an offense committed during the follow-up period. It is found that the salient factor score retains predictive power when applied to this follow-up period and outcome measure.

Burnout--Age at release from prison and recidivism

Abstract Empirical studies frequently have reported an association between age at release from prison and recidivism. For criminal justice decision-makers who wish to consider this knowledge in making prosecutorial, sentencing, or parole decisions, the magnitude of that association must be established while controlling for the effects of other variables known to be associated with recidivism (e.g., prior criminal record). This research addresses this issue using data from a large sample of federal prison releasees. The results indicate that recidivism rates do decline with increased age, and that the association is not diminished when statistical control is exercised for the effect of prior criminal record.

Time Served and Release Performance: A Research Note:

In this note, the association between length of time served in prison and release outcome is examined for a sample of 1546 federal adult male prisoners with control exercised for base expectancy (salient factor) score. All forms of release (parole/mandatory releaselexpiration of sentence) are included with a two year followup period utilized for each case. No substantial association between time served and release outcome is observable from the data for this sample. However, the percentage of cases with favorable outcome generally does appear to decrease slightly as one moves within risk categories from the groups serving shorter to longer periods of time.

Salient factor score and releasee behavior: Three validation samples

This paper provides an opportunity to observe the application of an actuarial device, used by the United States Parole Commission as an aid in parole selection, to three separate validation samples—each exceeding 1000 cases. Follow-up data for this study were provided through the cooperation of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. In addition, evidence is presented which may shed light on the conflict in the literature regarding whether or not the rate of unfavorable outcome of released prisoners at risk actually declines substantially after the first year (i.e., whether or not the first year after release is really the “most” critical).

Salient factor score validation--A 1972 release cohort

Abstract In October 1973, the United States Board of Parole adopted an actuarial device, termed a “salient factor score”, as a risk assesment aid. This device was constructed and initially validated on a sample of 1970 releases utilizing a two year follow-up period for each case. However, as the utility of a predictive device depends upon its a ability to predict to prospective samples, periodic validation is required. This paper describes the application of the salient factor score to a subsequent validation sample of prisoners released during 1972 and discusses the effects of using various outcome measures.

Revalidating the salient factor score: A research note

Abstract In conjunction with a system of explicit decision-guidelines, the United States Parole Commission uses an actuarial instrument as an aid in assessing risk of recidivism. Known as a “salient factor score,” the instrument currently employed by the Parole Commission was constructed on a sample of federal prisoners released in 1970, and initially validated on two samples of federal prisoners released in 1971 and 1972. Since the power of any predictive instrument may change over time, periodic revalidation is essential. In this note, revalidation of the salient factor score, using a sample of federal prisoners released in 1976 ( N = 1260), is described.

In the First Person … A Natural History of Decision Making, Extracted From Unofficial Aspects of a Life in Policy Research, the Professional Autobiography of Leslie T. Wilkins:

This issue of the Criminal Justice Policy Review initiates an occasional series of articles written by individuals who were participants in major developments in our field. We title this series “In the First Person . . .” From the traditional literature in the disciplines of criminal justice and criminology, we can learn how research studies were accomplished, how theoretical studies are grounded, the substance of the knowledge generated, and sometimes, its practical import. From the applied literature, we can learn what was implemented, what was accomplished, how effectively it was accomplished, and sometimes, how this contributes to our disciplinary knowledge base. We rarely have access in our field to the human and organizational processes through which such knowledge emerges. Criminal justice and criminology are relatively new as independent disciplines. Our relatively recent emergence has created concerns about our disciplinary legitimacy, but it also has created an environment rife with opportunities to build our knowledge base. As a corollary, many of the important advances in our disciplines have taken place during the lifetimes of individuals who still are involved in the building of our understanding of crime and justice and/or in implementing social and administrative efforts