James L. Seale

International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data

In a 2003 report, International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns, ERS economists estimated income and price elasticities of demand for broad consumption categories and food categories across 114 countries using 1996 International Comparison Program (ICP) data. This report updates that analysis with an estimated two-stage demand system across 144 countries using 2005 ICP data. Advances in ICP data collection since 1996 led to better results and more accurate income and price elasticity estimates. Low-income countries spend a greater portion of their budget on necessities, such as food, while richer countries spend a greater proportion of their income on luxuries, such as recreation. Low-value staples, such as cereals, account for a larger share of the food budget in poorer countries, while high-value food items are a larger share of the food budget in richer countries. Overall, low-income countries are more responsive to changes in income and food prices and, therefore, make larger adjustments to their food consumption pattern when incomes and prices change. However, adjustments to price and income changes are not uniform across all food categories. Staple food consumption changes the least, while consumption of higher-value food items changes the most.

Model Choice in Consumer Analysis: Taiwan, 1970–89

Expenditure data were used to study how income and prices influenced consumer demand in Taiwan during the last decade. Alternative differential demand models combining the features of the Rotterdam model and the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) were tested. AIDS-type demand responses describe Taiwanese consumer behavior better than do the other specifications.

Imports versus Domestic Production: A Demand System Analysis of the U.S. Red Wine Market

This research estimates price and expenditure elasticities of U.S. red wine imports from five countries--Italy, France, Spain, Australia, and Chile--which are compared to elasticities of domestically produced red wine using the first-difference version of the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). Expenditure elasticity results indicate that if U.S. total expenditures on red wine increase, domestic producers would gain most. Empirical results for conditional own-price elasticities of demand indicate that U.S. and Chilean red wines are elastic while U.S. demand for red wines from other countries are highly inelastic. Due to the magnitude of consumption of U.S. domestic red wines relative to imports, an increase in the price of U.S. wine results in a decline in quantity demanded that is six times larger than that for French and Italian red wines and over 20 times larger than that of other import countries. Results suggest that U.S. red-wine producers could increase their total revenue by decreasing prices, while Italian and French producers can increase total revenues by increasing prices.

Import Demand for Disaggregated Fresh Fruits in Japan

Using annual Japanese fresh fruit import data from 1971 to 1997, this study analyzes the import patterns of Japans seven most popular fresh fruits by implementing and testing a general differential dmand system that nests four alternative import demand specifications. When tested against the general system using the five-good case (bananas, grapefutis, oranges, and lemons and aggregating pineapples, berries, and grapes), the analysis rejects the Almost Ideal Demand System and National Bureau of Research specifications but does not reject Rotterdam and Central Bureau of Statistics models. When estimated using the six-good case (bananas, grapefuits, oranges, lemons, and pineapples and aggregating berries and grapes), the analysis rejects all specifications except the Rotterdam model.

The demand for energy: evidence from a cross-country demand system

Abstract Some new evidence on the income own-price elasticities of demand for energy consumption by consumers is presented. Estimates are derived from a complete system of cross-country demand equations with energy being one of the commodities considered.

Modeling International Consumption Patterns

This article addresses a number of key problems commonly confronted in the literature on international demand analysis. These include data issues and requirements, multistage budgeting, outliers, group heteroskedasticity, and model selection. A two-stage demand system is fit to International Comparison Programme data for 114 countries for nine aggregate categories and eight food sub-categories of goods. Outliers are identified and omitted from the sample. Parameter estimates for the two stages are obtained with a maximum-likelihood procedure that corrects for group heteroskedasticity. Country-specific income and own-price elasticities are calculated and indicate that poor countries are more responsive to changes in income and prices than rich countries. We also find evidence for the strong version of Engels law; when income doubles, the budget share of food declines by approximately 0.10.

RATIONALITY, PRICE RISK, AND RESPONSE

Risk has long been recognized as potentially important in determining agricultural supply. However, supply response models have either incorporated risk in an ad hoc manner or not at all. A rational expectations supply response model incorporating price risk is developed, an estimation procedure suggested, and an empirical example presented.

Cross-Price Elasticities of Demand Across 114 Countries

This report presents a simple methodology for calculating cross-price elasticities across countries, using the Frisch own-price elasticity. Cross-price elasticities are calculated for 9 major consumption categories from the 1996 International Comparison Program data across 114 countries. The consumption categories are: food, beverage, and tobacco; clothing and footwear; education; gross rent, fuel, and power; house furnishings and operations; medical care; recreation; transport and communications; and “other” items. Additionally, cross-price elasticities are calculated and reported for a two-good demand system of food and nonfood. The elasticity estimates from this report are the only available consistent cross-country cross-price elasticity estimates across such a large number of countries and consumption categories.

History, regionalism, and CARICOM trade: A gravity model analysis

Abstract A gravity model is fitted to 17 annual cross sections, 1980–1996, of bilateral trade data (imports and exports) between CARICOM member states and selected trading partners. Specifically, the paper investigates the effects of regional integration, colonial legacies and linguistic ties on CARICOM bilateral trade flows between member states and between member states and North American and European Union countries. The empirical results indicate that history and regionalism have had significant and strong effects on CARICOM trade. Additionally, two traditional explanatory variables in gravity models, income per capita and population, have significant and positive effects on CARICOM trade while the distance between trading partners exerts the expected negative effect.

Demand relationships among fresh fruit and juices in Canada

This paper considers an application of the differential approach to Canadian fresh fruit and juice demand for the time period from 1960 through 1987. Results show that if Canadian consumers were to allocate larger portions of their budgets to the consumption of fresh fruit and juices, expenditure shares on oranges and apples would increase, with fresh oranges benefitting the most. Furthermore, results show that oranges and grapefruit are substitutes for apples; therefore, an increase in the price of fresh apples would increase the consumption of citrus; thus, increasing citrus imports.