James M. Raymo

Marriage and Family in East Asia: Continuity and Change

Trends toward later and less marriage and childbearing in East Asia have been even more pronounced than in the West. At the same time, many other features of East Asian families have changed very little. We review recent research on trends in a wide range of family behaviors in China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We also draw upon a range of theoretical frameworks to argue that trends in marriage and fertility reflect tension between rapid social and economic change and limited change in family expectations and obligations. We discuss how this tension may be contributing to growing socioeconomic differences in patterns of family formation. This focus on East Asia extends research on the second demographic transition in the West by describing how rapid decline in marriage and fertility rates can occur in the absence of major changes in family attitudes or rising individualism.

Economic potential and entry into marriage and cohabitation.

This article explores the relationship between economic potential and rates of entry into marriage and cohabitation. Using data from the 1990 census and the 1980–1992 High School and Beyond (Sophomore Cohort), we developed a method for explicitly estimating five time-varying measures of earnings potential. The analyses of union formation are based on an intergenerational panel study of parents and children, to which our measures of earnings potential were appended. The results indicate that all five measures of earnings potential strongly and positively influence the likelihood of marriage for men, but not for women. Earnings potential does not affect entry into cohabiting unions for either men or women.

Educational attainment and the transition to first marriage among Japanese women.

I use data from a large nationally representative survey to examine the relationship between women’s educational attainment and the timing of first marriage in Japan. The results indicate that later marriage for highly educated women primarily reflects longer enrollment in school, that university education is increasingly associated with later and less marriage, and that the trend toward later and less marriage is occurring at all levels of educational attainment. These findings are consistent, albeit weakly, with the argument that higher education should be negatively associated with marriage only in countries in which gender relations make it particularly difficult for women to balance work and family.

Marriage Market Mismatches in Japan: An Alternative View of the Relationship between Women's Education and Marriage

In Japan, unlike in most other industrialized societies, the decline in marriage rates has been most pronounced among highly educated women. Theoretical interpretations of this distinctive pattern of change have typically emphasized increasing economic independence for women and reductions in the gains to marriage. In this paper, the authors develop and evaluate an alternative explanation that emphasizes womens continued dependence on mens economic resources and decline in the relative supply of highly educated men. Using data from four rounds of the Japanese National Fertility Survey, the authors decompose the observed decline in marriage rates into changes in the propensity to marry and changes in the educational composition of the marriage market. Results indicate that change in the availability of potential spouses accounts for one-fourth of the decline in marriage among university-educated women and explains a substantial proportion of the growing educational differences in marriage. The conclusion is that the relatively large decline in marriage among highly educated Japanese women likely reflects both increasing economic independence and continued economic dependence on men.

Work and Family Characteristics as Predictors of Early Retirement in Married Men and Women

This study presents an integrative model of early retirement using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. The model extends prior work by incorporating work—family conflict to capture the interaction between the work and family domains and by assuming proximal and distal predictors of early retirement. More precisely, the model suggests that family and job demands and resources predict family-to-work and work-to-family conflict, respectively. All of these factors are presumed to have only indirect effects on retirement timing via the intervening effect of quality-of-life measures, that is, marital satisfaction, job satisfaction, and health. The authors assume that these three factors constitute predictors of early retirement in addition to socioeconomic status and the availability of a pension plan and health insurance. The model was tested with structural equation modeling techniques, and the results were supportive. Therefore, the proposed model offers a general framework for the integration of previous research findings.

Cohabitation and family formation in Japan

This article documents the prevalence, duration, and marital outcomes of cohabiting unions in Japan. It then examines the correlates of cohabitation experiences and also describes differences in the family-formation trajectories of women who have and have not cohabited. Cohabitation has increased rapidly among recent cohorts of women, and cohabiting unions in Japan tend to be relatively short in duration and are almost as likely to dissolve as to result in marriage. Life table analyses demonstrate that the cumulative probabilities of marriage and parenthood within marriage are roughly similar for women who did and those who did not cohabit. The most notable difference is in the pathways to family formation, with women who cohabited more likely both to marry subsequent to pregnancy and to delay childbearing within marriage. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that cohabiting unions in Japan are best viewed as an emerging prelude to marriage rather than as an alternative to marriage or singlehood. We conclude with speculation about the likelihood of further increases in cohabitation in Japan and the potential implications for marriage and fertility.

Later Marriages or Fewer? Changes in the Marital Behavior of Japanese Women

Using pooled cross-sectional data from recent censuses and wage surveys age-specific models of marriage prevalence are estimated in order to examine whether rapid changes in the marital behavior of Japanese women reflect delayed marriage or an increase in the proportion who will never marry. Results indicate that higher wages for females higher educational attainment and recency of cohort are associated with lower marital prevalence at ages 30-34 consistent with an interpretation of increasing nonmarriage. Given the rapid pace with which Japans population is projected to age the rarity of nonmarital childbearing and the relative absence of family alternatives to marriage an increase in the proportion of those who never marry would have potentially major social economic and demographic consequences. This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America. (EXCERPT)

Later-Life Employment Preferences and Outcomes: The Role of Midlife Work Experiences

In this article, the authors evaluate relationships between midlife work experiences and the realization of preferences for full-time employment, part-time employment, and complete retirement at age 63-64. Using rich data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, the authors demonstrate that the likelihood of achieving one’s preferred employment status is related to earlier work experiences including employment stability in midlife and self-employment, part-time employment, and private pension coverage across the life course. Despite large gender differences in work experiences across the life course, relationships between earlier work experiences and the likelihood of realizing later-life employment preferences are similar for men and women. The authors also find that these relationships are only partially mediated by economic and employment circumstances in late midlife, suggesting the need for further evaluation of the cumulative pathways linking midlife work experiences to the realization of later-life employment preferences.

The Association Between Retirement and Emotional Well-being: Does Prior Work--Family Conflict Matter?

OBJECTIVE This study investigates whether the association between retirement and emotional well-being depends on prior experience of work-family conflict. METHODS We use data from the 1993 and 2004 waves of the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study to estimate linear regression models of 2 dimensions of emotional well-being-depressive symptoms and positive psychological functioning. We also use fixed effects models to investigate whether key findings persist after controlling for stable, but unobserved, characteristics of individuals. RESULTS Retirement is associated with relatively fewer depressive symptoms among individuals who reported high levels of work stress interfering with family life in late midlife. We find suggestive evidence of a similar association with respect to positive psychological functioning after accounting for unobserved characteristics of individuals. Among individuals reporting high levels of family stress spillover into work life at late midlife, our results suggest that retirement tends to be associated with better emotional well-being among men than among women. DISCUSSION Retirement may come more as a relief than as a stressor for individuals previously experiencing high levels of work demands interfering with family life. However, particularly among women, retirement may not relieve the burdens of family life stressors.

Coresidence With Parents, Women's Economic Resources, and the Transition to Marriage in Japan:

Integrating three theoretical explanations for declining rates of marriage in Japan, the authors develop hypotheses in which linkages between benefits of coresidence with parents and marriage timing are moderated by womens own socioeconomic characteristics. To evaluate these hypothesized interactive relationships, data from a panel survey of Japanese women is used to estimate hazard models for the transition from the parental home to first marriage. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that limited domestic responsibilities contribute to later marriage among coresident women with higher levels of human capital. Less evidence is found for the hypothesis that limited living expenses are associated with later marriage among women whose potential husbands are likely to have more tenuous economic prospects. The authors conclude that coresidence with parents plays a potentially important role in the marriage behavior of economically independent women in societies where family formation is relatively incompatible with full-time work for women.