James Noon

America’s Churning Races: Race and Ethnicity Response Changes Between Census 2000 and the 2010 Census

A person’s racial or ethnic self-identification can change over time and across contexts, which is a component of population change not usually considered in studies that use race and ethnicity as variables. To facilitate incorporation of this aspect of population change, we show patterns and directions of individual-level race and Hispanic response change throughout the United States and among all federally recognized race/ethnic groups. We use internal U.S. Census Bureau data from the 2000 and 2010 censuses in which responses have been linked at the individual level (N = 162 million). Approximately 9.8 million people (6.1 %) in our data have a different race and/or Hispanic-origin response in 2010 than they did in 2000. Race response change was especially common among those reported as American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, Other Pacific Islander, in a multiple-race response group, or Hispanic. People reported as non-Hispanic white, black, or Asian in 2000 usually had the same response in 2010 (3 %, 6 %, and 9 % of responses changed, respectively). Hispanic/non-Hispanic ethnicity responses were also usually consistent (13 % and 1 %, respectively, changed). We found a variety of response change patterns, which we detail. In many race/Hispanic response groups, we see population churn in the form of large countervailing flows of response changes that are hidden in cross-sectional data. We find that response changes happen across ages, sexes, regions, and response modes, with interesting variation across racial/ethnic categories. Researchers should address the implications of race and Hispanic-origin response change when designing analyses and interpreting results.

An Outside View What Observers Say About Others’ Races and Hispanic Origins

Outsiders’ views of a person’s race or Hispanic origin can affect how she sees herself, how she reports her race/ethnicity, and her social and economic experiences. Social processes of constructing race are complicated for people whose identity is not reflected back to them in interactions, and mismatched identification gives insight into social assumptions. Using unique linked data from the 2000 and 2010 censuses, we find that in 90% of our 3.7 million cases, proxy reports (e.g., neighbors) of a person’s race/ethnicity match responses given by the household. Match rates are high for non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Asians and for Hispanic ethnicity. Matches are much less common for other groups (American Indian/Alaska Native, Pacific Islander, Some Other Race, multiracial, and the race(s) of Hispanics). Proxies often report biracial Black-Whites as Black, but tend to report biracial American Indian-Whites, Asian-Whites, and Pacific Islander-Whites as non-Hispanic White rather than as people of color. Proxies frequently report children as multiple race and elders as single race, whether they are or not, potentially lowering the average age of the multiracial population. Proxies tend to report the person’s race and Hispanic origin as consistent with others in the tract, potentially increasing measured residential segregation.

The Errors in Reporting Medicare Coverage: A Comparison of Survey Data and Administrative Records

Objectives: We examine survey reporting of Medicare coverage of the older population by evaluating discordance between survey responses and administrative records. Method: We link data from the 2014 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC) and 2014 Medicare Enrollment Database to evaluate the extent to which individuals misreport Medicare coverage in the CPS ASEC. Using regression analyses, we assess factors associated with misreporting. Results: We find the CPS ASEC undercounts the population aged 65 years and older with Medicare by 4.5%. Misreporting of Medicare coverage is associated with citizenship status, immigration year of entry, employment, coverage of other household members, and imputation of Medicare responses. Adjusting for misreporting, Medicare coverage among older individuals increases from 93.4% to 95.6%. Discussion: The CPS ASEC underestimates Medicare coverage for the older population. Administrative records may be useful to evaluate and improve survey imputation of Medicare coverage when missing.

When race and Hispanic origin reporting are discrepant across administrative records and third party sources: Exploring methods to assign responses1

The U.S. Census Bureau is researching uses of administrative records and third party data in survey and decennial census operations. One potential use of administrative records is to utilize these data when race and Hispanic origin responses are missing. When federal and third party administrative records are compiled, race and Hispanic origin responses are not always the same for an individual across sources. We explore different methods to assign one race and one Hispanic response when these responses are discrepant. We also describe the characteristics of individuals with matching, non-matching, and missing race and Hispanic origin data by demographic, household, and contextual variables. We find that minorities, especially Hispanics, are more likely to have non-matching Hispanic origin and race responses in administrative records and third party data compared to the 2010 Census. Minority groups and individuals ages 0-17 are more likely to have missing race or Hispanic origin data in administrative records and third party data. Larger households tend to have more missing race data in administrative records and third party data than smaller households.