James Proudman

House Prices, Consumption, and Monetary Policy: A Financial Accelerator Approach

We consider a general equilibrium model where asymmetric information problems create frictions in credit markets used by households. In our economy, houses serve as collateral to lower the agency costs related to borrowing. We show that this amplifies the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing investment, house prices and consumption. We consider the effect of a structural change in credit markets that lowers the transaction costs of additional borrowing against housing equity. We show that such a change would increase the effect of monetary policy shocks on consumption, but would decrease the effect on house prices and housing investment.

Technological convergence, R&D, trade and productivity growth

This paper analyses productivity growth in a panel of 14 United Kingdom manufacturing industries since 1970. Innovation and technology transfer provide two potential sources of productivity growth for a country behind the technological frontier. We examine the roles played by research and development (R&D), international trade, and human capital in stimulating each source of productivity growth. Technology transfer is statistically significant and quantitatively important. While R&D raises rates of innovation, international trade enhances the speed of technology transfer. Human capital primarily affects output through private rates of return (captured in our index of labour quality) rather than measured TFP.

Committees Versus Individuals: An Experimental Analysis of Monetary Policy Decision-Making

We report the results of an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision making under uncertainty. A large sample of economics students played a simple monetary policy game, both as individuals and in committees of five players. Our findings - that groups make better decisions than individuals - accord with previous work by Blinder and Morgan. We also attempt to establish why this is so. Some of the improvement is related to the ability of committees to strip out the effect of bad play, but there is a significant additional improvement, which we associate with players learning from each other’s interest rate decisions.

Evolving Patterns of International Trade

Theoretical models of growth and trade suggest that patterns of international specialization are dynamic and evolve endogenously over time. Initial comparative advantages are either reinforced or gradually unwound with the passage of time. This paper puts forward an empirical framework for modeling international trade dynamics that uses techniques widely employed in the cross-country literature on income convergence. On applying this framework to industry-level data, evidence is found for significant differences in international trade dynamics among the G-5 economies.

Productivity Convergence and International Openness

There is a strong partial correlation between openness and rates of productivity growth across UK manufacturing sectors. The paper investigates the relationship more formally, within a theoretical model of productivity catch-up. The model identifies three potential effects of international openness: openness may affect (a) domestic rates of innovation, (b) the quantity of technological know-how that may be transferred from the frontier to the less advanced economy, (c) the rate at which this technology transfer occurs. From the theoretical framework, an econometric equation is derived which is used to estimate the relationship between UK productivity growth, the UK-US productivity gap and the degree of international openness. International openness is found, primarily, to affect the rate of productivity convergence, and this relationship is robust to the inclusion of information on R&D intensity, human capital, unionisation and capacity utilisation.

Persistence and Mobility in International Trade

The theoretical literature on endogenous growth and international trade suggests that comparative advantage is endogenous. Sector-specific learning by doing and technology transfer respectively provide reasons why initial patterns of international specialization may persist or exhibit mobility over time. This paper evaluates the extent of persistence or mobility in trade in manufactured goods in Germany and the United Kingdom for the period 1970–93. A measure of the extent of specialization is presented and its evolution over time modelled as a sequence of cross-section distributions. Evidence of considerable mobility is found, with the degree of mobility in the United Kingdom exceeding that in Germany.

Openness and its Association with Productivity Growth in UK Manufacturing Industry

A large theoretical literature exists that suggests that differences in growth performance may be related to variations in the extent of international openness. This paper is concerned with quantifying measures of openness and examining their association with productivity growth across 19 sectors in UK manufacturing between 1970 and 1992. Using the statistical technique of discriminant analysis, sectors were sorted into groups on the basis of their measured values of openness in 1970. Sectors classified as relatively open enjoyed significantly higher rates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth between 1970 and 1992 than those classified as closed. There was a positive correlation between the growth in labour productivity and lagged values of each of the observed measures of openness. This relationship was explained by a strong relationship between lagged values of openness and TFP growth. But, there was no evidence of a positive relationship between openness and that part of labour productivity growth explained by capital accumulation.

Persistence and Volatility in Short-term Interest Rates

It is important for monetary policy makers to know how closely money market rates follow the policy rates they set. This paper looks at the volatility and persistence of divergences between short-term market interest rates away from policy rates. This may also offer insights into the effectiveness of various approaches that central banks employ to smooth interest rate volatility, such as requiring minimum reserves. Using data for Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, it is found that in all three countries there are significant temporary divergences, although the average divergence is close to zero.

Deconstructing Growth in UK Manufacturing

This paper is concerned with the nature of economic growth in 19 manufacturing industries between 1970-92. There is substantial heterogeneity (both across sectors and time) in rates of growth of value-added, hours worked, labour productivity and Total Factor Productivity during the sample period. The decline in constant price value-added in aggregate manufacturing during the sample period is associated with significant changes in the relative size of individual sectors, and with noticeable changes in performance between the two peak-to-peak business cycles 1973-79 and 1979-89. Despite changes in the relative size of sectors, the vast majority of aggregate productivity growth is explained by within-sector productivity growth. An analysis of productivity levels also reveals considerable heterogeneity. The distribution of productivity levels across sectors exhibits an increase in dispersion and becomes increasingly positively skewed during the sample period. There is evidence of productivity levels in a number of industries converging at values just below the mean; productivity levels in a few sectors persistently remain above and rise away from mean values.