James S. Costain

Inflation dynamics with labour market matching: assessing alternative specifications

This paper reviews recent approaches to modeling the labour market and assesses their implications for inflation dynamics through both their effect on marginal cost and on price-setting behavior. In a search and matching environment, we consider the following modeling setups: right-to-manage bargaining vs. efficient bargaining, wage stickiness in new and existing matches, interactions at the firm level between price and wage-setting, alternative forms of hiring frictions, search on-the-job and endogenous job separation. We find that most specifications imply too little real rigidity and, so, too volatile inflation. Models with wage stickiness and right-to-manage bargaining or with firm-specific labour emerge as the most promising candidates.

Unemployment insurance with endogenous search intensity and precautionary saving

A welfare analysis of unemployment insurance (UI) is performed in a general equilibrium job search model. Finitely-lived, risk-averse workers smooth consumption over time by accumulating assets, choose search effort when unemployed, and suffer disutility from work. Firms hire workers, purchase capital, and pay taxes to finance worker benefits; their equity is the asset accumulated by workers. A matching function relates unemployment, hiring expenditure, and search effort to the formation of jobs. The model is calibrated to US data; the parameters relating job search effort to the probability of job finding are chosen to match microeconomic studies of unemployment spells. Under logarithmic utility, numerical simulation shows rather small welfare gains from UI. Even without UI, workers smooth consumption effectively through asset accumulation. Greater risk aversion leads to substantially larger welfare gains from UI; however, even in this case much of its welfare impact is due not to consumption smoothing effects, but rather to decreased work disutility, or to a variety of externalities.

Distributional dynamics under smoothly state-dependent pricing

Starting from the assumption that firms are more likely to adjust their prices when doing so is more valuable, this paper analyzes monetary policy shocks in a DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. The model is calibrated to retail price microdata, and inflation responses are decomposed into “intensive”, “extensive”, and “selection” margins. Money growth and Taylor rule shocks both have nontrivial real effects, because the low state dependence implied by the data rules out the strong selection effect associated with fixed menu costs. The response to sector-specific shocks is gradual, but inappropriate econometrics might make it appear immediate.

Fiscal Delegation in a Monetary Union with Decentralized Public Spending

In a monetary union, the interaction between several governments and a single central bank is plagued by several sources of deficit bias, including common pool problems. Each government has strong preferences over local spending and taxation but suffers only part of the costs of union-wide inflation and higher interest rates, creating a tendency towards excessive debt. Motivated by the evident failure of fiscal rules to restrain debt in the European context, this paper analyzes an alternative fiscal regime in which the control of sovereign debt issurance is delegated to an independent authority, while public spending decisions remain decentralized. Using a symmetric perfect-foresight model, we compare the long-run policy biases affecting a typical country across different institutional arrangements. Establishing an independent fiscal authority tends to reduce debt via three distinct channels: first, the debt aversion induced by its mandate; second, its greater patience, compared to an elected institution; and third, the internalization of common pool problems, if the authority is established at the union-wide level. Furthermore, we show that fiscal delegation is more effective in restraining debt, and more informationally efficient, than the establishment of a federal government which would centralize fiscal decisions.

Smoothing Shocks and Balancing Budgets in a Currency Union

We study simple fiscal rules for stabilizing the government debt level in response to asymmetric demand shocks in a country that belongs to a currency union. We compare debt stabilization through tax rate adjustments with debt stabilization through expenditure changes. While rapid and flexible adjustment of public expenditure might seem institutionally or informationally infeasible, we discuss one concrete way in which this might be implemented: setting salaries of public employees, and social transfers, in an alternative unit of account, and delegating the valuation of this numeraire to an independent fiscal authority. Using a sticky-price DSGE matching model of a small open economy in a currency union, we compare the business cycle implications of several different fiscal rules that all achieve the same reduction in the standard deviation of the public debt. In our simulations, compared with rules that adjust tax rates, a rule that stabilizes the budget by adjusting public salaries and transfers reduces fluctuations in consumption, employment, and private and public after-tax real wages, thus bringing the market economy closer to the social planner’s solution.

Macroprudential Theory: Advances and Challenges

This note discusses recent theoretical work analyzing the causes of financial instability, its consequences for the macroeconomy, and thus the potential role for macroprudential policy. After discussing how information asymmetries and strategic complementarities can cause balance sheet losses to propagate through the financial system and over time, we discuss the role of the major classes of macroprudential instruments in preventing instability ex ante and containing it ex post. We conclude with a discussion of current challenges for macroeconomic modeling and for the design of regulation and policy.

Precautionary price stickiness

This paper proposes a model in which retail prices are sticky even though firms can always change their prices at zero cost. Instead of imposing a “menu cost”, we assume that more precise decisions are more costly. In equilibrium, firms optimally make some errors in price-setting, thus economizing on managerial time. Both the time cost of choice, and the resulting risk of errors, give firms an incentive to leave their prices unchanged until they perceive a sufficiently costly deviation from the optimal price. We show that this error-prone “control cost” framework helps explain many puzzling observations from microdata. However, on the macroeconomic side, pricing errors do little to explain the real effects of monetary shocks.

A Simple Model of Multiple Equilibria Based on Risk

This paper shows how risk may aggravate fluctuations in economies with imperfect insurance and multiple assets. A two period job matching model is studied, in which risk averse agents act both as workers and as entrepreneurs. They choose between two types of investment: one type is riskless, while the other is a risky activity that creates jobs. Equilibrium is unique under full insurance. If investment is fully insured but unemployment risk is uninsured, then precautionary saving behavior dampens output fluctuations. However, if both investment and employment are uninsured, then an increase in unemployment gives agents an incentive to shift investment away from the risky asset, further increasing unemployment. This positive feedback may lead to multiple Pareto ranked equilibria. An overlapping generations version of the model may exhibit poverty traps or persistent multiplicity. Greater insurance is doubly beneficial in this context since it can both prevent multiplicity and promote risky investment.

On the quantitative importance of wage bargaining models

Four general equilibrium search models are compared quantitatively. The baseline framework is a calibrated macroeconomic model of the US economy designed for a welfare analysis of unemployment insurance policy. The other models make three simple and natural specification changes, regarding tax incidence, monopsony power in wage determination, and the relevant threat point. These specification changes have a major impact on the equilibrium and on the welfare implications of unemployment insurance, partly because search externalities magnify the effects of wage changes. The optimal level of unemployment insurance depends strongly on whether raising benefits has a larger impact on search effort or on hiring expenditure.

Logit Price Dynamics

We model retail price stickiness as the result of costly, error‐prone decision making. Under our assumed cost function for the precision of choice, the timing of price adjustments and the prices firms set are both logit random variables. Errors in the prices firms set help explain micro facts related to the size of price changes, the behavior of adjustment hazards, and the variability of prices and costs. Errors in adjustment timing increase the real effects of monetary shocks, by reducing the “selection effect.” Allowing for both types of errors also helps explain how trend inflation affects price adjustment.