James V. Dunne

Predictors of Mortality and Progression in Scleroderma-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc); however, prognostication of SSc-associated ILD (SSc-ILD) remains challenging. We conducted a systematic review to identify variables that predict mortality and ILD progression in SSc-ILD. METHODS Three databases were searched to identify all studies relating to predictors of mortality or ILD progression in SSc-ILD. Studies were eligible if they were published in English and included ≥ 10 adults with SSc-ILD. Two authors independently reviewed and extracted data from acceptable studies. RESULTS The initial search identified 3,145 unique citations. Twenty-seven studies, including six abstracts, met the inclusion criteria. A total of 1,616 patients with SSc-ILD were included. Patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific variables predicted mortality and progression; however, most predictors were identified in only one study. Most studies did not fully account for potential confounders, and none of the studies included a validation cohort. Older age, lower FVC, and lower diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide predicted mortality in more than one study. Male sex, extent of disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) scan, presence of honeycombing, elevated KL-6 values, and increased alveolar epithelial permeability were identified as predictors of both mortality and ILD progression on unadjusted analysis. The extent of disease on HRCT scan was the only variable that independently predicted both mortality and ILD progression. CONCLUSIONS Mortality and ILD progression were predicted by several patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific factors. Additional prospective studies are required to validate these preliminary findings and to identify combinations of variables that accurately predict the prognosis of SSc-ILD.

Office capillaroscopy in systemic sclerosis

The aims of this study are to assess the reliability of two office techniques, the ophthalmoscope and the Dermlite® dermatoscope, and to detect nailfold capillaroscopy abnormalities in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Two separate studies were performed. In the first, the nailfolds of two fingers on one hand of 13 SSc patients and two normals were examined by four rheumatologists using an ophthalmoscope. In the second, the nailfolds of the two fingers of each hand of six SSc patients and two normals were examined by six rheumatologists with a Dermlite® dermatoscope. Widefield capillary microscopy was performed by one observer in the ophthalmoscope study to assess validity. The examiners determined the presence or absence of dilated loops, giant capillary loops, and/or avascular areas on each digit. The kappa coefficient was calculated to demonstrate agreement. With the ophtalmoscope, the inter-observer kappa coefficients were 0.43, 0.54, and 0.19; the average intra-observer agreements were 0.61, 0.56, and 0.31; and the ophthalmoscope–microscope agreement were 0.63, 0.52, and <0.1 for dilated capillaries, giant capillaries, and avascular areas, respectively. With the dermatoscope, the kappa values for inter-observer reliability were 0.63, 0.40, and 0.20; and intra-observer reliability was 0.71, 0.55, and 0.40 for dilated capillaries, giant capillaries, and avascular areas, respectively. The ophthalmoscope and the dermatoscope provide moderate to substantial reliability to detect the presence of giant and dilated capillaries but poor inter-observer agreement for avascular areas. The ophthalmoscope is valid when compared to the microscope for detecting giant or dilated capillaries. We conclude that these techniques are useful office tools to detect capillary abnormalities in SSc.

Original ResearchDiffuse Lung DiseasePredictors of Mortality and Progression in Scleroderma-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc); however, prognostication of SSc-associated ILD (SSc-ILD) remains challenging. We conducted a systematic review to identify variables that predict mortality and ILD progression in SSc-ILD. METHODS Three databases were searched to identify all studies relating to predictors of mortality or ILD progression in SSc-ILD. Studies were eligible if they were published in English and included ≥ 10 adults with SSc-ILD. Two authors independently reviewed and extracted data from acceptable studies. RESULTS The initial search identified 3,145 unique citations. Twenty-seven studies, including six abstracts, met the inclusion criteria. A total of 1,616 patients with SSc-ILD were included. Patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific variables predicted mortality and progression; however, most predictors were identified in only one study. Most studies did not fully account for potential confounders, and none of the studies included a validation cohort. Older age, lower FVC, and lower diffusing capacity of carbon monoxide predicted mortality in more than one study. Male sex, extent of disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) scan, presence of honeycombing, elevated KL-6 values, and increased alveolar epithelial permeability were identified as predictors of both mortality and ILD progression on unadjusted analysis. The extent of disease on HRCT scan was the only variable that independently predicted both mortality and ILD progression. CONCLUSIONS Mortality and ILD progression were predicted by several patient-specific, ILD-specific, and SSc-specific factors. Additional prospective studies are required to validate these preliminary findings and to identify combinations of variables that accurately predict the prognosis of SSc-ILD.

Cardiac tamponade and large pericardial effusions in systemic sclerosis

Cardiac tamponade in systemic sclerosis is rare. We report four cases of SSc with hemodynamically significant pericardial effusions associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension, three of whom died, two following pericardiocentesis. Of 26 SSc cases reported in the literature with large pericardial effusions, seven were associated with PAH. Including our series, the mortality rate is 55%.The potential contributory role of PAH in the development of pericardial effusion and the management implications are explored. In SSc patients with hemodynamically significant pericardial effusions and severe pulmonary hypertension, initial stabilization of pulmonary artery pressure and right heart function with vasoactive therapy and then cautious pericardial drainage should be considered.

Reports of abnormal cervical cancer screening tests in systemic sclerosis

OBJECTIVE To assess the prevalence of abnormal cervical cancer screening (Pap tests) reported by women with SSc onset before the age of 50 yrs. METHODS Female members of a Canadian multi-centre SSc cohort completed standardized assessments and were questioned regarding a history of an abnormal Pap test. Potential correlates examined included demographics, reproductive history, smoking, diffuse vs limited SSc type, immunosuppressant exposure and SSc duration. RESULTS In the 320 women with SSc onset before the age of 50 yrs, the life-time prevalence of an abnormal Pap test (according to self-report) was 25.4% (95% CI CI 20.9, 30.4%). By comparison, self-reported prevalence of abnormal Pap tests among general population Canadian females was recently reported at 13.8% (95% CI 11.6, 16.4%). Women with diffuse SSc (n = 142), tended to have a higher prevalence of self-reported cervical dysplasia (31.7%) compared with those with limited disease (20.7%), but the CIs overlapped. A multivariate logistic regression found a significant positive association between self-reported abnormal Pap test and diffuse disease [odds ratio (OR) 1.87; 95% CI 1.01, 3.47]. An independent association of an abnormal Pap test with smoking (OR 2.43; 95% CI 1.23, 4.78) and with younger age at disease onset was also noted. CONCLUSIONS We noted a high prevalence of abnormal Pap tests self-reported in our sample. Increased risk was seen among those with diffuse SSc, and also among smokers and those with a younger age at disease onset. Thus, it seems prudent to ensure that adequate attention is paid to cervical cancer screening for women with SSc.

Predicting Mortality in Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease Using Risk Prediction Models Derived From Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

BACKGROUND Mortality risk prediction tools have been developed in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, however, it is unknown whether these models accurately estimate mortality in systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD). METHODS Four baseline risk prediction models--the Composite Physiologic Index, the Interstitial Lung Disease-Gender, Age, Physiology Index, the du Bois index, and the modified du Bois index--were calculated for patients recruited from a specialized SSc-ILD clinic. Each baseline model was assessed using logistic regression analysis with 1-year mortality as the outcome variable. Discrimination was quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration was assessed using the goodness-of-fit test. The incremental prognostic ability of additional predictor variables was determined by adding prespecified variables to each baseline model. RESULTS The 156 patients with SSc-ILD completed 1,294 pulmonary function tests, 725 6-min walk tests, and 637 echocardiograms. Median survival was 15.0 years from the time of SSc-ILD diagnosis. All baseline models were significant predictors of 1-year mortality in SSc-ILD. The modified du Bois index had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84, compared with 0.77 to 0.81 in the other models. Calibration was acceptable for the modified du Bois index, but was poor for the other models. All baseline models include FVC and 6-min walk distance was identified as an additional independent predictor of 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS The modified du Bois index has good discrimination and calibration for the prediction of 1-year mortality in SSc-ILD. FVC and 6-min walk distance are important independent predictors of 1-year mortality in SSc-ILD.

L-selectin and Skin Damage in Systemic Sclerosis

Background L-selectin ligands are induced on the endothelium of inflammatory sites. L-selectin expression on neutrophils and monocytes may mediate the primary adhesion of these cells at sites of inflammation by mediating the leukocyte-leukocyte interactions that facilitate their recruitment. L-selectin retains functional activity in its soluble form. Levels of soluble L-selectin have been reported as both elevated and lowered in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). This preliminary study seeks to discern amongst these disparate results and to discover whether there is an association between L-selectin concentrations in plasma and skin damage in SSc patients. Methodology and Principal Findings Nineteen cases with limited systemic sclerosis (lSSc) and 11 cases with diffuse systemic sclerosis (dSSc) were compared on a pairwise basis to age- and sex-matched controls. Criteria of the American College of Rheumatology were used to diagnose SSc. Skin involvement was assessed using the modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS). We find no association between mRSS and plasma L-selectin concentration in lSSc cases (p = 0.9944) but a statistically significant negative correlation in dSSc cases (R2 = 73.11 per cent, p = 0.0008). The interpretation of the slope for dSSc cases is that for each increase of 100 ng/ml in soluble L-selectin concentration, the mRSS drops 4.22 (95 per cent CI: 2.29, 6.16). There was also a highly statistically significant negative correlation between sL-selectin and disease activity (p = 0.0007) and severity (p = 0.0007) in dSSc cases but not in lSSc cases (p = 0.2596, p = 0.7575, respectively). Conclusions and Significance No effective treatments exist for skin damage in SSc patients. Nor is there a laboratory alternative to the modified Rodnan skin score as is the case for other organs within the body. Modulation of circulating L-selectin is a promising target for reducing skin damage in dSSc patients. Plasma levels of soluble L-selectin could serve as an outcome measure for dSSc patients in clinical trials.

Assessment of Reproductive History in Systemic Sclerosis

OBJECTIVE To assess the number of live births in women whose systemic sclerosis (SSc) onset occurred during their reproductive years, and to compare this with general population rates. METHODS Within the Canadian Scleroderma Research Group cohort, we identified 320 women whose SSc symptoms began prior to age 50 years. We determined the number of children born in the years following first onset of symptoms. We summed the years of followup from the time of first symptoms in subjects up to age 50 years (or oldest age attained, if the subject was age <49 years). We applied age-specific birth rates for Canadian women to these years of followup in order to determine the expected number of live births for the period. We then calculated the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of observed to expected live births. RESULTS In the 320 women studied, the number of live births over the interval since symptom onset was below the expected number (111 live births observed versus 140 expected; SIR 0.79, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.65-0.95). This finding was more prominent in women with diffuse cutaneous disease versus limited cutaneous disease. The mean and median numbers of live births were similar across SSc subgroups based on organ involvement or cyclophosphamide exposure. In repeat analyses, including the reproductive period before SSc symptom onset, the ratio of observed to expected births was 1.23 (95% CI 1.13-1.33). CONCLUSION Compared with the general population, fewer live births were noted in women with SSc, but this phenomenon was only apparent in the period after symptom onset.

Limited Cutaneous and Diffuse Cutaneous Scleroderma: Circulating Biomarkers Differentiate Lung Involvement

Study background: Insufficient or absent angiogenesis are hallmarks of scleroderma (SSc). Microvascular change is an early manifestation of SSc followed by intimal proliferation and fibrosis of arterioles resulting in reduced blood flow and tissue ischemia. This ongoing vasculopathy in the lungs presents clinically as pulmonary hypertension and characteristically precedes lung fibrosis in patients. The purpose of this preliminary study is to elucidate possible interrelationships amongst circulating microparticles, angiogenic and angiostatic factors in SSc patients that are predictive of interstitial lung disease and high values of right ventricular systolic pressure (RVSP) by trans-thoracic Doppler-echocardiography (TTE). Methods: Nineteen cases with limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc) and 11 cases with diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc) were compared to 30 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. High resolution computed tomography was used to establish the diagnosis of interstitial lung disease and TTE was used to estimate RVSP and to diagnose putative pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Plasma concentrations of circulating factors were assessed in patients and controls. Results: Angiopoetin-2, endostatin, E-selectin and platelet microparticles were higher in lcSSc cases compared to healthy controls (p<0.0001, p=0.0008, p=0.0003, p=0.0020, respectively). Only endostatin was higher in dcSSc cases (p=0.0020). In a classification tree analysis, concentrations of soluble E-selectin of at least 44.7 ng/ml and 37.2 ng/ml were predictive of ILD and PAH, respectively, in lcSSc cases, whereas, endothelial microparticle levels higher than 96 per μl were predictive of ILD in dcSSc cases. Conclusion: Scleroderma cases can be differentiated from healthy controls based on higher concentrations of the angiostatic factor endostatin. E-selectin was associated with lung involvement in lcSSc, whereas, high levels of endothelial microparticles were associated with ILD in dcSSc.

Oesophageal diameter is associated with severity but not progression of systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease: Oesophageal diameter and SSc-ILD severity

It is unknown whether oesophageal disease is associated with systemic sclerosis‐associated interstitial lung disease (SSc‐ILD) severity, progression or mortality.