James W. Pease

A COMPARISON OF SUBJECTIVE AND HISTORICAL CROP YIELD PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Forecast distributions based on historical yields and subjective expectations for 1987 expected crop yields were compared for 90 Western Kentucky grain farms. Different subjective probability elicitation techniques were also compared. In many individual cases, results indicate large differences between subjective and empirical moments. Overall, farmer expectations for 1987 corn yields were below those predicted from their past yields, while soybean expectations were above the historical forecast. Geographical location plays a larger role than crop in comparisons of relative variability of yield. Neither elicitation technique nor manager characteristics have significant effects on the comparisons of the forecasts.

Cost-Effectiveness of Nutrient Management and Buffers: Comparisons of Two Spatial Scenarios

Policymakers are seeking cost effective methods to reduce nutrient pollution from agriculture. Predicted costs and pollution reductions from nutrient management and buffers are evaluated under four spatial scenarios describing a watershed. Results will help policymakers evaluate alternative Best Management Practices (BMPs) for water quality protection in agriculture.

IMPACTS OF WITHIN-FARM SOIL VARIABILITY ON NITROGEN POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS

The effects of considering variable within-farm soil runoff and leaching potential on costs of reducing nitrogen losses are analyzed for a Virginia dairy. Manure applications may cause nitrogen losses through runoff and leaching because of factors such as uncertain nitrogen mineralization. Farmers can reduce nitrogen control costs by applying manure on soils with less nitrogen loss potential. Ignoring within-farm soil variability may result in overstating the farms costs of reducing nitrogen losses.

Community DECISIONS: stakeholder focused watershed planning.

Successful watershed planning can be enhanced by stakeholder involvement in developing and implementing plans that reflect community goals and resource limitations. Community DECISIONS (Community Decision Support for Integrated, On-the-ground Nutrient Reduction Strategies) is a structured decision process to help stakeholders evaluate strategies that reduce watershed nutrient imbalances. A nutrient accounting algorithm and nutrient treatment database provide information on nutrient loadings and costs of alternative strategies to reduce loadings. Stakeholders were asked to formulate goals for the North Fork Shenandoah River Watershed in Virginia and select among strategies to achieve those goals. The Vector Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to rank strategies. Stakeholders preferred a Maximum strategy that included point source upgrades, riparian buffers, no-till corn silage, wheat cover, and bioretention filters in developed areas. Participants generally agreed that the process helped improve communication among stakeholders, was helpful for watershed planning, and should be used for TMDL (Total Maximum Daily Load) planning. Participants suggested more attention be paid to ensuring that all relevant issues are addressed and all information needed to make decisions is available. Watershed planning should provide stakeholders with clear scientific information about physical and socioeconomic processes. However, planning processes must give stakeholders adequate time to consider issues that may not have been addressed by existing scientific models and datasets.

Simulating corn yields over 16 years on three soils under inorganic fertilizer and hog manure fertility regimes

Abstract Corn yields (Zea mays L.) on control treatments with inorganic fertilizer and on copper‐enriched hog manure treatments with annual rates up to 168 mt/ha from a 16‐year study were modelled with the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) simulation model. The field research study was conducted on three diverse soils, a Guemsey silt loam, a Bertie fine sandy loam, and a Starr‐Dyke clay loam. Results indicated that EPIC simulated the manure and fertilizer treatments equally well. EPIC produced simulated yield means that were not different from measured yield means for all treatments (p ≤ 0.05). Goodness of fit tests indicate that simulated yields did not differ from measured yields for all simulation models except the Bertie manure treatment (p ≤ 0.05). For control and manure treatments, simulated yields explained 78% and 89% of variation in measured yields for the Guernsey soil, 55% and 42% for the Bertie soil, and 76% and 70% for the Starr‐Dyke soil, respectively. Overall, these are reasonab...

Switchgrass nitrogen response and estimated production costs on diverse sites

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has been the principal perennial herbaceous crop investigated for bioenergy production in North America given its high production potential, relatively low input requirements, and potential suitability for use on marginal lands. Few large trials have determined switchgrass yields at field scale on marginal lands, including analysis of production costs. Thus, a field‐scale study was conducted to develop realistic yield and cost estimates for diverse regions of the USA. Objectives included measuring switchgrass response to fertility treatments (0, 56, and 112 kg N ha−1) and generating corresponding estimates of production costs for sites with diverse soil and climatic conditions. Trials occurred in Iowa, New York, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Virginia, USA. Cultivars and management practices were site specific, and field‐scale equipment was used for all management practices. Input costs were estimated using final harvest‐year (2015) prices, and equipment operation costs were estimated with the MachData model (

Perverse Incentives with Pay for Performance: Cover Crops in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

2015). Switchgrass yields generally were below those reported elsewhere, averaging 6.3 Mg ha−1 across sites and treatments. Establishment stand percent ranged from 28% to 76% and was linked to initial year production. No response to N was observed at any site in the first production year. In subsequent seasons, N generally increased yields on well‐drained soils; however, responses to N were nil or negative on less well‐drained soils. Greatest percent increases in response to 112 kg N ha−1 were 57% and 76% on well‐drained South Dakota and Virginia sites, where breakeven prices to justify N applications were over

Reinventing Regulation of Agriculture: Alternative Performance Standards for Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations

70 and

Community DECISIONS (Community Decision Support for Integrated, On-the-ground Nutrient Reduction Strategies)

63 Mg−1, respectively. For some sites, typically promoted N application rates may be economically unjustified; it remains unknown whether a bioenergy industry can support the breakeven prices estimated for sites where N inputs had positive effects on switchgrass yield.

DECISIONS model: A GIS-based tool for watershed nutrient planning

Policymakers are concerned about nitrogen and phosphorus export to water bodies. Exports may be reduced by paying farmers to adopt practices to reduce runoff or by paying performance incentives tied to estimated run-off reductions. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of practice and performance incentives for reducing nitrogen exports. Performance incentives potentially improve farm-level and allocative efficiencies relative to practice incentives. However, the efficiency improvements can be undermined by baseline shifts when growers adopt crops that enhance the performance payments but cause more pollution. Policymakers must carefully specify rules for performance-incentive programs and payments to avoid such baseline shifting.