James W. Stoner

A time-series analysis of public transit ridership in Portland, Oregon, 1971–1982

This paper examines the factors affecting changes in transit ridership in Portland, Oregon, during the period 1971 through 1982. A time-series methodology is used to investigate the effects of service level, travel costs, and market size at the system, sector, and route levels. Transfer function and multiple time-series models are compared. Intervention analysis is used to determine the impact of 81 service-level changes and 5 fare changes. A comparison is made of the elasticities estimated for these changes with elasticities developed from other studies.

Support for a local transit tax

Abstract Survey data from a small, blue collar, midwestern U.S. city are analyzed to identify the factors that influence support for a local tax earmarked for transit. In Council Bluffs, Iowa, a telephone survey was carried out to measure willingness to pay a proposed two mil property tax for transit. Two complementary multivariate techniques, Multiple Classification Analysis and Automatic Interaction Detector, are applied to measure the roles of a series of user and nonuser benefits in support for the tax. The benefits affecting support most strongly proved to be those accruing to nonusers-specificially, the beliefs that transit contributes to cleaner air, stimulates business within the city, and helps the poor to find or keep jobs. The belief that urban government is performing well also strongly affects support. Personal use of transit, use by other members of ones househols, and the view that transit is back-up transportation mode have a very minor effect on support. The conclusion is reached that transit planning should take into consideration social objectives as well as performance measures to ensure continued support.

Nonlinear Analysis of Jointed Concrete Pavements

A finite element model for nonlinear analysis of jointed concrete pavements is presented. The model allows for nonlinear representation of the properties of concrete, both in compression and in tension. It also accounts for the behavior under cyclic loading considering the nonlinear fatigue damage accumulation in concrete. An improved model accounting for the relative deformation between the dowel bars and the concrete slabs is presented to analyze pavement slabs connected with dowels. The sub-grade model is capable of representing pumping of the fine material with repetitive loading. Limited validation of the model is presented using data available in the literature.