James Windle

Popping the balloon effect: assessing drug law enforcement in terms of displacement, diffusion, and the containment hypothesis.

The “balloon effect” is an often used but rather dismissive representation of the effects of drug law enforcement. It implies a hydraulic displacement model and an impervious illicit drug trade. This paper reviews theoretical and empirical developments in policing and crime prevention. Based on this, 10 types of displacement are identified and four arguments developed: (1) Displacement is less extensive and harmful than often contended; (2) Where displacement may occur it preferably should be exploited as a policy tool to delay the illicit drug industry and deflect it to less harmful locations and forms; (3) The opposite of displacement occurs, termed a diffusion of drug control benefits, wherein law enforcement has benefits that extend further than envisaged, and has 10 types mirroring those of displacement; (4) The net impact of drug law enforcement is often underestimated, and a containment hypothesis may offer a more accurate framework for evaluation.

Going solo: the social organisation of drug dealing within a London street gang

This paper presents a single case study of one street gang in one London borough. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 12 gang members, or former gang members, and seven practitioners. The practitioners and gang members/ex-gang members reported different perspectives on how the gang was structured and drug dealing was organised. The gang members/ex-gang members suggested that the gang is a loose social network with little recognisable formal organisation. Although individual gang members sell drugs, the gang should not be viewed as a drug dealing organisation. Rather it is a composition of individual drug dealers who cooperate out of mutual self-interest. Therefore, some gang members are best described as independent entrepreneurs while others are subcontractors looking to ‘go solo’. The seven practitioners, however, tended to describe a more hierarchically structured gang, with formal recruitment processes. This divergence of perspective highlights an important consideration for policy and research.

A very gradual suppression: A history of Turkish opium controls, 1933–1974

Before 1974 controls over Turkey’s opium production were ineffective and provided opportunities for large-scale diversion, making it one of the world’s largest sources of illicit opium. The state monopoly was limited by a lack of authority over opium producing areas, laissez faire controls and poor state procurement practices. Policies administered between 1933 and 1971 did, however, represent a period of organisational learning which led to the establishment of a highly successful drug control policy. A secondary finding of this paper, revealed whilst analysing diversion estimates, suggests that there may be inaccuracies in assumptions of geographical displacement from Turkey. While these assumptions have been reproduced in much of the literature, the data suggests that the Turkish opium ban of 1971 had either minimal impact on global or regional production levels, or that displacement occurred during the 1960s rather than the mid-1970.

How the East Influenced Drug Prohibition

In much of the academic literature drug prohibition is often described as an American, or at least a Western, construct. This paper shows how prohibitions were enforced in Asian countries while the United States and Western Europe were routinely trading opium. The concept of prohibition being a distinctly American construct is, therefore, flawed. Furthermore, Western missionaries to China are often credited as important actors in the formulation of Western prohibitions. These missionaries may, however, have been influenced by the prohibitionist ideals of the peoples they were trying to convert to Christianity. This paper does not dispute the importance of American pressure on the global spread of prohibition but rather seeks to add balance to its historiography, by elucidating how Western prohibitions were pre-dated, and possibly influenced, by Eastern prohibitions.

Poppies for Medicine in Afghanistan: Lessons from India and Turkey

This study examines India and Turkey as case studies relevant to the Senlis Council’s ‘poppies for medicine’ proposal. The proposal is that Afghan farmers are licensed to produce opium for medical and scientific purposes. Here it is posited that the Senlis proposal neglects at least three key lessons from the Turkish and Indian experiences. First, not enough weight has been given to diversion from licit markets, as experienced in India. Second, both India and Turkey had significantly more efficient state institutions with authority over the licensed growing areas. Third, the proposal appears to overlook the fact that Turkey’s successful transition was largely due to the use of the poppy straw method of opium production. It is concluded that, while innovative and creative policy proposals such as that of the Senlis proposal are required if Afghanistan is to move beyond its present problems, ‘poppies for medicine’ does not withstand evidence-based scrutiny.

Harms caused by China's 1906-17 opium suppression intervention

Between 1906 and 1917 China (under the Imperial and then Republican regimes) enacted a highly effective intervention to suppress the production of opium. Evidence from British Foreign Office records suggest that the intervention was centred, in many areas, upon a highly repressive incarnation of law enforcement in which rural populations had their property destroyed, their land confiscated and/or were publically tortured, humiliated and executed. Crops were forcefully eradicated and resistance was often brutally suppressed by the military. As few farmers received compensation or support for alternative livelihood creation the intervention pushed many deeper into poverty. Importantly, the repressive nature of the opium ban appears to have been a contributing factor to the fragmentation of China, highlighting the counter-productivity of repressive interventions to reduce drug crop production.

A Slow March from Social Evil to Harm Reduction: Drugs and Drug Policy in Vietnam

Abstract The suppression of drug consumption and trade is high on the Government of Vietnam’s agenda. To accomplish this goal, Vietnam employs repressive policies that often contravene international human rights law. Among the most detrimental and problematic policies are the incarceration of drug users in compulsory treatment centers, and the stigmatization and abuse of consumers by the police. Vietnamese drug policy is, however, slowly changing in the face of one of Asia’s worst ongoing HIV epidemics. While the Communist Government of the early-1990s designated illicit drugs as a “social evil” to be eradicated through punitive and often repressive means, the recent implementation of harm reduction approaches have reduced the level of needle sharing, and thus HIV transmission. This briefing will explore the current trends in drug consumption, production, and trafficking before looking at the key harms and threats associated with drugs in Vietnam. This will be followed by a summary of Vietnam’s drug policies, including the country’s approach to drug treatment, harm reduction, and illicit opium suppression: Vietnam is one of a small number of states to have suppressed illicit opium production, an intervention that centred upon coercive negotiations with limited alternative development. The briefing will conclude with some tentative recommendations for reform and thoughts on what could be expected from Vietnam during the Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly on the World Drug Problem (UNGASS 2016).

The impact of the Great Recession on the Irish drug market

This article analyses 10 years (2004–2014) of An Garda Síochána controlled drug data to investigate the impact of economic recession and globalization on the Irish illicit drug market. The limited international literature on recessions and drug markets suggests that economic downturns can increase both drug consumption and dealing. Gardaí data may, however, suggest that the 2008 Great Recession reduced drug use and dealing, yet increased the cultivation and manufacture of drugs: trends which largely conflict with the international literature. Two testable hypotheses are drawn from the data: (1) net consumption and trade of illicit drugs were reduced by emigration triggered by the Great Recession; (2) the Great Recession forced an adaptation in the market which sped up the process towards import substitution of cannabis cultivation. The article concludes by investigating how recent changes highlight the globalized nature of Irish drug markets before proposing avenues for further research.

Security trumps drug control: How securitization explains drug policy paradoxes in Thailand and Vietnam

Abstract This paper investigates the paradoxes inherent in Thai and Vietnamese drug policies. The two countries have much in common. Both are ultra-prohibitionist states which employ repressive policies to contain drug markets. Their policies have, however, diverged in two key areas: opium suppression and harm reduction. Thailand implemented an effective intervention to suppress opium farming centred upon alternative development, whereas Vietnam suppressed opium production through coercive negotiation with nominal alternative development. Vietnam has embraced elements of harm reduction, whereas Thailand has been slow to implement harm reduction policies. This paper hypothesises that these two differences are largely a product of their perceived relationship to security. The two cases demonstrate how once an issue is securitized the ultra-prohibitionist rules of the game can be broken to allow for more humane and pragmatic policies.

Afghanistan, Narcotics and the International Criminal Court: From Port of Spain to Kabul, via Rome.

This article investigates the potential impact of inclusion of narcotic trafficking under the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Analysis uses the single case study of Afghanistan: the world’s largest source of illicit opiates. To establish a foundation section one will discuss the four main objections to the inclusion of narcotics trafficking presented during the primary negotiations for the ICC. The article then moves beyond legal arguments by assessing the potential effects of the inclusion of narcotic trafficking by applying concepts and evidence from the drug control, policing and crime prevention literature. The conclusion weighs up a number of arguments for and against the inclusion of narcotic trafficking in the Rome Statute of the ICC.