Jan-Åke Nilsson

Cardiovascular risk groups and mortality in an urban Swedish male population: the Malmö Preventive Project

Objectives. To describe the size, overlap and mortality of four cardiovascular risk groups, in order to give a scientific background for the prevention of cardiovascular disease in a representative urban population.

Incidence of hip fractures in Malmö, Sweden, 1992-1995. A trend-break.

The incidence of hip fractures in Malmö, Sweden, has been studied since 1924. Predictions based on material from the 1950s to the 1980s have shown an almost exponential increase in incidence. During 1992-1995, 2,268 patients aged 50 and older, with hip fractures, were admitted to Malmö University Hospital, the only hospital in the city treating hip fractures. 76% were women with a mean age of 81 (SD 8) years, and the mean age of men was 78 (SD 9) years. 47% of the fractures were cervical. The annual incidences per 10,000 inhabitants were 36 in men and 85 in women. The corresponding numbers of subjects over 80 years were 170 men and 297 women. These findings show that the incidence is no longer increasing. The causes of such a trend-break could be successful osteoporosis prevention, an increasing proportion of non-Scandinavian immigrants with a lower genetic risk of osteoporotic fractures, or a healthier elderly population. Increasing number of the population at risk already have two operated hips, due to previous fractures or arthrosis. Other causes may be fewer prescriptions of sedatives and higher winter temperatures.

Changes of bone mineral mass and soft tissue composition after hip fracture

The aim of this prospective longitudinal study was to measure prospectively the bone mineral density (BMD) and anthropometric variables after a hip fracture. In particular, we studied changes in the BMD in both the injured and uninjured hips, and examined if the postoperative mortality rate and complications, including pseudarthrosis of the fracture and late segmental collapse of the head of the femur, could be predicted by early bone mass measurements. The bone mineral density and the body composition were measured with dual energy X-ray absorptiometry in 102 consecutive hip fracture patients, 31 men and 71 women, with a mean age of 74 and 79 years, respectively. All cases were operated on within 3 days. The measurements were undertaken within 10 days after the fracture, after 4 and after 12 months. The BMD of the hip fracture cases decreased, especially in the lower extremities where the patients lost 7%, during the first year after the fracture. The patients also lost lean body mass (5%) but gained fat (11%) during the same period. They lost significantly more bone mass in the fractured hip than in the uninjured hip (p < 0.05). No difference was found between those patients who survived and those who died within 2 years after their hip fracture in neither the initial measurement nor in the follow-up measurements. Also, we found no difference between those patients whose hip fracture healed and those who developed late segmental collapse or pseudarthrosis. In conclusion, osteoporotic hip fracture cases lose bone mass at an increased rate, especially in the fractured hip. Also, their soft tissue composition changes, gaining fat while losing muscle mass. Furthermore, it seems that early bone mineral measurements cannot predict postoperative failures or postoperative mortality.

Prevalence of osteoporosis and incidence of hip fracture in women--secular trends over 30 years.

BackgroundThe number of hip fractures during recent decades has been reported to be increasing, partly because of an increasing proportion of elderly women in the society. However, whether changes in hip fracture annual incidence in women are attributable to secular changes in the prevalence of osteoporosis is unclear.MethodsBone mineral density was evaluated by single-photon absorptiometry at the distal radius in 456 women aged 50 years or above and living in the same city. The measurements were obtained by the same densitometer during three separate time periods: 1970-74 (n = 106), 1987-93 (n = 175) and 1998-1999 (n = 178), and the age-adjusted prevalence of osteoporosis in these three cohorts was calculated. Additionally, all hip fractures sustained in the target population of women aged 50 years or above between 1967 and 2001 were registered, whereupon the crude and the age-adjusted annual incidence of hip fractures were calculated.ResultsThere was no significant difference in the age-adjusted prevalence of osteoporosis when the three cohorts were compared (P = 1.00). The crude annual incidence (per 10,000 women) of hip fracture in the target population increased by 110% from 40 in 1967 to 84 in 2001. The overall trend in the crude incidence between 1967 and 2001 was increasing (1.58 per 10,000 women per year; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.17 to 1.99), whereas the age-adjusted incidence was stable over the same period (0.22 per 10,000 women per year; 95 percent confidence interval, -0.16 to 0.60).ConclusionsThe increased number of hip fracture in elderly women is more likely to be attributable to demographic changes in the population than to secular increase in the prevalence of osteoporosis.

Improved outcome in Wegener's granulomatosis and microscopic polyangiitis? A retrospective analysis of 95 cases in two cohorts

Objectives.  Mortality rates for Wegener’s granulomatosis (WG) and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) have decreased after the introduction of cyclophosphamide. Standardized mortality ratio (SMR) expresses the overall mortality of patients compared with the general population. The aims of this study were to compare survival in an old and a recent cohort of patients with WG and MPA using SMR and to determine predictors for death in both groups combined.

High disease activity disability burden and smoking predict severe extra-articular manifestations in early rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVES To identify patients with severe extra-articular RA (ExRA) in an early RA cohort and to investigate potential risk factors. METHODS From a cohort (n = 2900) in a structured programme for newly diagnosed RA, 40 patients with severe ExRA after RA diagnosis were identified. Disease activity score (DAS28), functional disability (HAQ) and treatment with glucocorticosteroids (GCs) and DMARDs were assessed regularly. Cases with ExRA were compared with RA controls from the same cohort matched for age, sex and duration of symptoms at inclusion. RESULTS Patients who developed severe ExRA were more often current smokers and had higher mean DAS28, HAQ and CRP at baseline. Among the ExRA cases, 93% had a positive RF vs 59% of the controls. The area under the curve (AUC) of DAS28 odds ratio (OR) 7.79/S.D.; 95% CI 3.04, 19.95, HAQ (OR 2.30/S.D.; 95% CI 1.37, 3.88) and CRP (OR 3.05/S.D.; 95% CI 1.77, 5.26) during the first 2 years of follow-up were strong predictors of subsequent development of ExRA. The most frequently used DMARDs were MTX and SSZ, with similar frequency and duration of treatment among cases and controls. The cases were treated with GC before onset of ExRA more frequently (73 vs 47%; P = 0.005) and with higher mean cumulative dose (3667 vs 2037 mg, P = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS High levels of disease activity and disability during the first 2 years after RA diagnosis, smoking and RF predict the development of severe extra-articular RA.

Survival in severe alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (PiZZ)

BackgroundPrevious studies of the natural history of alpha-1-antitrypsin (AAT) deficiency are mostly based on highly selected patients. The aim of this study was to analyse the mortality of PiZZ individuals.MethodsData from 1339 adult PiZZ individuals from the Swedish National AAT Deficiency Registry, followed from 1991 to 2008, were analysed. Forty-three percent of these individuals were identified by respiratory symptoms (respiratory cases), 32% by liver diseases and other diseases (non-respiratory cases) and 25% by screening (screened cases). Smoking status was divided into two groups: smokers 737 (55%) and 602 (45%) never-smokers.ResultsDuring the follow-up 315 individuals (24%) died. The standardised mortality rate (SMR) for respiratory cases was 4.70 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.10-5.40), 3.0 (95%CI 2.35-3.70) for the non-respiratory cases and 2.30 (95% CI 1.46-3.46) for the screened cases. The smokers had a higher mortality risk than never-smokers, with a SMR of 4.80 (95%CI 4.20-5.50) for the smokers and 2.80(95%CI 2.30-3.40) for the never-smokers. The Rate Ratio (RR) was 1.70 (95% CI 1.35-2.20). Also among the screened cases, the mortality risk for the smokers was significantly higher than in the general Swedish population (SMR 3.40 (95% CI 1.98-5.40).ConclusionSmokers with severe AAT deficiency, irrespective of mode of identification, have a significantly higher mortality risk than the general Swedish population.

Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Commercial Flight Aircrew Officers Compared with Those in the General Population

Cardiovascular disease is the most common reason for loss of license among commercial flight pilots. This study was done to explore cardiovascular risk factors among aircrew officers. The study group consisted of 113 male commercial flight aircrew officers (aviators), aged thirty-five to forty-four years (mean: 38.8 years) who participated in the compulsory health screening. Men investigated at the Health Screening Centre, Malmö, were used as the reference group. Group 1, for ECG, (n 771), aged thirty-eight to forty-four years (mean: 42.1). Group 2, for height, weight, body mass index (BMI) (weight kg/height m 2), blood pressure, serum cholesterol (total), and smoking habits (n 5005), aged thirty-five to forty-four years (mean: 39.2). The aviators did not differ from the reference population in regard to height, weight, BMI, diastolic blood pressure, or smoking habits. However, the incidences of electrocar diographic left ventricular hypertrophy, increased systolic blood pressure, and the level of cholesterol were significantly higher in the aviators when compared with the controls. Aircrew members may primarily be selected by criteria that differ from the male popu lation in general. Excessive environmental stress, ie, shift work, jet lag, fatigue, as well as dietary factors, may also contribute to anomalies in the group. The clinical consequences of these anomalies for the aviators should be further evaluated, for they are important both for the aviators and for flying safety.

Bone mineral density in the hand as a predictor for mortality in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVES BMD in the hand, as evaluated by digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR), has been suggested to be a predictor for joint damage in RA. A predictor for long-term prognosis might also predict increased mortality in RA. The aim of the present study was to evaluate BMD in the hand as a predictor for all-cause mortality. METHODS In 1978, 152 consecutive patients (78% women, mean disease duration: 14.2 years) were enrolled. X-rays of the hands at inclusion were available in 108 patients. Reasons for not evaluating DXR in 24 patients were placement of joint prostheses or severe malalignment. BMD was evaluated by DXR on the same digitized hand X-rays used for scoring radiographic joint damage. Measures of disease activity and damage were used to predict mortality by Cox regression models. RESULTS From February 1978 through March 2008, 62 of the 82 patients died, corresponding to a standardized mortality ratio of 2.92 (95% CI 2.19, 3.65) for both sexes combined. In age- and sex-adjusted proportional hazards models, BMD [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.58/1 s.d.; 95% CI 0.37, 0.91], Steinbrocker functional class 3-4 (HR = 4.74/1 step; 95% CI 1.93, 11.64), the physicians global assessment (HR = 1.38/1 s.d.; 95% CI 1.03, 1.84) and ESR (HR = 1.92/1 s.d.; 95% CI 1.42, 2.58) were significant predictors of mortality, but RF, disease duration, Larsen index, Ritchie articular index and the patients global assessment were not. CONCLUSION Low DXR-BMD predicted overall mortality in age- and sex-adjusted analyses, which further supports it as a valid measurement of disease activity or damage and as having prognostic value.

Increased mortality after anterior shoulder dislocation: 255 patients aged 12–40 years followed for 25 years

Background No data exist regarding mortality rate in young patients with a first–time anterior shoulder dislocation. A cohort of 255 patients aged 12–40 years had a primary anterior shoulder dislocation during the years 1978 and 1979. After 10 years, 9 of the patients had died—which is a high figure for this cohort of patients. The question thus arose as to whether these patients had an increased mortality rate. In this study we have examined the mortality rate in these patients 25 years after the primary dislocation, relative to that of the Swedish population in general. Patients and methods In 1978 and 1979, 255 patients aged 12–40 years (257 shoulders) with first–time anterior shoulder dislocation were treated with or without immobilization. During 2003 and 2004, a follow-up of all patients who were alive was undertaken and the certificates of causes of death of 27 deceased patients were also analyzed. Results The mortality rate (SMR) for the patients in this study was more than double that of the general Swedish population (p < 0.001). A higher proportion of the deceased patients had etiology other than sportsrelated activity as a cause of their initial dislocation (p = 0.04). 11 of the 27 who were deceased had died from injury or intoxication (S00–T98, ICD10), which was more than expected relative to the causes of death for the general Swedish population in 2003 and 2004 (p < 0.001) Interpretation The doubled mortality rate in our cohort of patients is most probably explained by the inclusion of a disproportionate number of patients with alcoholic behavior, which may affect the long-term outcome in trauma series.