Jan Babecký

The Margins of Labor Cost Adjustment: Survey Evidence from European Firms

Firms have multiple options at the time of adjusting their wage bills. However, previous literature has mainly focused on base wages. This paper broadens the analysis beyond downward rigidity in base wages by investigating the use of other margins of labor cost adjustment at the firm level. Using data from a unique survey, the authors find that firms make frequent use of other, more flexible, components of compensation to adjust the cost of labor. Changes in bonuses and non-pay benefits are some of the potential margins firms use to reduce costs. The paper also shows how the margins of adjustment chosen are affected by firm and worker characteristics.

Structural reforms and growth in transition

The present fiscal difficulties of many countries amplify the call for structural reforms. To provide stylized facts on how reforms worked in the past, we quantitatively review 60 studies estimating the relationship between reforms and growth. These studies examine structural reforms carried out in 26 transition countries around the world. Our results show that an average reform caused substantial costs in the short run, but had strong positive effects on long‐run growth. Reforms focused on external liberalization proved to be more beneficial than others in both the short and long run. The findings hold even after correction for publication bias and misspecifications present in some primary studies.

Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States; What Did the Great Recession Change?

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty.

Comparing Different Early Warning Systems: Results from a Horse Race Competition Among Members of the Macro-Prudential Research Network

Over the recent decades researchers in academia and central banks have developed early warning systems (EWS) designed to warn policy makers of potential future economic and financial crises. These EWS are based on diverse approaches and empirical models. In this paper we compare the performance of nine distinct models for predicting banking crises resulting from the work of the Macroprudential Research Network (MaRs) initiated by the European System of Central Banks. In order to ensure comparability, all models use the same database of crises created by MaRs and comparable sets of potential early warning indicators. We evaluate the models’ relative usefulness by comparing the ratios of false alarms and missed crises and discuss implications for pratical use and future research. We find that multivariate models, in their many appearances, have great potential added value over simple signalling models. One of the main policy recommendations coming from this exercise is that policy makers can benefit from taking a broad methodological approach when they develop models to set macro-prudential instruments.

Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New EU Member States: Is FDI a Mixed Blessing?

This essay focuses on the various macroeconomic opportunities and challenges created by the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the new Member States. We question whether the macroeconomic performance of the new Member States is furthered through the overall positive impact of FDI on the trade balance or whether FDI can actually worsen the performance. Our findings suggest that in some new Member States the positive impact, foreseen by the financial markets, may be reflected in a sustainable appreciation of the real exchange rate. Such real appreciation is in most cases moderate enough to allow for smooth nominal convergence required for euro adoption. In some cases, however, this appreciation is very fast, especially in the new Member States with an initial low net external debt and massive inflows, making it challenging to fulfill the Maastricht criteria. The Maastricht criteria may be difficult to meet also in those new Member States where FDI has been channeled predominantly into services, housing construction, or non-tradable sectors in general, and where it might be required to depreciate currencies in real terms to sustain the external balance. In these countries we observe increasing net external debt without a corresponding improvement in the trade balance.

Convergence of Returns on Chinese and Russian Stock Markets with World Markets: National and Sectoral Perspectives

Interest in examining the financial linkages of economies has increased in the wake of the 2008/9 global financial crisis. Applying the concepts of beta- and sigma-convergence of stock market returns, we assess changes over time in the degree of stock market integration of Russia and China with each other, as well as with respect to the United States, the Euro Area, and Japan. Our analysis is based on national and sectoral data spanning the period September 1995 to October 2010. Overall, we find evidence for gradually increasing convergence of stock market returns after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial crisis. Following a major disruption caused by the 2008/9 global financial crisis, the process of stock market return convergence resumes between Russia and China, as well as with world markets. Notably, the episode of sigma-divergence from the 2008/9 crisis is stronger for China than for Russia. We also find that the process of stock market return convergence and the impact of the recent crisis have not been uniform at the sectoral level, suggesting the potential for diversification of risk across sectors.

Inflation Forecast Errors in the Czech Republic

Professional forecasters in the Czech Republic made large average absolute and relative errors in inflation forecasts between 1998 and 2007. However, these errors were, in a majority of institutions, exclusively due to inaccurate forecast of exchange rate development. Although forecasters learned from their past forecast errors, the exchange rate forecast errors persisted. Nevertheless, some of the forecasting institutions, such as the Czech central bank, exhibited a bias in their inflation forecasts even after accounting for the errors in exchange rate forecasts.

Integration of Chinese and Russian stock markets with world markets: National and sectoral perspectives

Interest in examining the financial linkages of economies has increased in the wake of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis. Applying the concepts of beta- and sigma-convergence of stock market returns, we assess changes over time in the degree of stock market integration between Russia and China as well as between them and the United States, the euro area and Japan. Our analysis is based on national and sectoral data spanning the period September 1995 to October 2010. Overall, we find evidence for gradually increasing stock market integration after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial crisis. Following a major disruption caused by the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, the process of stock market integration resumes between Russia and China, and with world markets. Notably, the episode of sigma-divergence from the 2008/2009 crisis is stronger for China than Russia. We also find that the process of stock market integration and the impact of the recent crisis have not been uniform at the sectoral level, suggesting potential for diversification of risk across sectors.

Financial Integration at Times of Crisis and Recovery

Abstract The global financial crisis of 2007/2008 interrupted the process of financial integration observed in the European Union since the beginning of the 2000s. This paper empirically analyzes whether financial integration resumed, focusing on the period 2002–2015 and employing the indicators of the speed and the level of integration. The analysis covers four financial markets (the money, foreign exchange, bond, and equity markets) of the selected inflation-targeting Central European economies (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland), representatives of new euro area countries (Slovenia and Slovakia) and the selected advanced Western European economies (Austria, Germany, Portugal) with the euro area. The results reveal that the global financial crisis caused mainly a temporary price divergence of the financial markets in the analyzed countries vis-a-vis the euro area. By 2015 the situation on the financial markets returned gradually to the pre-crisis degree of integration with the euro area for most of the countries and markets; however, there are signs of fragmentation on the government bond markets.

Mechanisms of the State Dependence of Wage Setting: Evidence from a Survey of Czech Firms

Drawing on firms’ reactions to the changing macroeconomic conditions prior to and after the global financial crisis of 2008–09, this article presents evidence for the state dependence of wage setting. Further, the article investigates the underlying mechanisms of state dependence by distinguishing between firms’ general characteristics and financial performance and the environment in which firms operate. The results, based on a survey of Czech firms, show that the frequency of wage adjustment is higher for large firms, foreign-owned firms, firms covered by collective agreements, firms in good financial condition, and firms facing positive shocks, while negative demand shocks and strong competition reduce the frequency of wage adjustment.