Jan Bartholdy

Unbiased Estimation of Expected Return Using CAPM

Abstract Estimation of expected return is required for many financial decisions. For example, an estimate for cost of capital is required for capital budgeting and cost of equity estimates are needed for performance evaluation based on measures such as EVA. Estimates for expected return are often based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which states that expected excess return (expected return minus the risk-free rate) is equal to the assets sensitivity to the world market portfolio (β) times the risk premium on the “world market portfolio” (the market risk premium). Since the world market portfolio, by definition, contains all assets in the world, it is not observable. As a result, an estimate for expected return is commonly obtained by taking an estimate for β based on some index (as a proxy for the world market portfolio) and an estimate for the market risk premium based on a potentially different index and multiplying them together. In this paper, it is shown that this results in a biased estimate for expected return. This is undesirable since biased estimates lead to misallocation of funds and biased performance measures. It is also shown in this paper that the straightforward procedure suggested by Fama and MacBeth [J. Financ. Econ. 1 (1974) 43] results in an unbiased estimate for expected return. Further from the analysis done, it follows that, for an unbiased estimate, it does not matter what proxy is used, as long as it is used correctly an unbiased estimate for expected return results.

Deposit Insurance and the Risk Premium in Bank Deposit Rates

Abstract By placing a ceiling on the amount of possible depositor loss, deposit insurance should result in a lower deposit risk premium. However, this effect may be modified if either the insurance promise has low credibility or the moral hazard incentives generated by deposit insurance result in a greater probability of bank default. Using financial and institutional panel data from thirteen countries, we find that the risk premium is over 40 basis points higher on average in uninsured countries than in countries that offer insurance up to some pre-specified maximum. However, the risk premium has a non-linear relationship with the level of maximum insurance coverage, suggesting that the market recognizes the moral hazard potential. Moreover, the effect of deposit insurance on the risk premium is weaker in countries with strong creditor rights, consistent with the view that investors view the latter as a substitute for explicit deposit insurance.

Debt and Taxes: Evidence from Bank-financed Small and Medium-sized Firms

This paper analyzes the impact of corporate taxes on the capital structure in a country where bank financing is the main external financing source. It is found that the existence of a debt tax shield and provisions for tax loss carry-forwards has an important impact on the capital structure of the firm. These results differ from the general result in the literature that taxes do not matter for the capital structure decision. The main difference is that these results are obtained from a bank based financing system where asymmetric information and agency problems are solved differently than under a market-based system where most of the general results from the literature are obtained. Consistent with this, the pecking order theory of capital structure is rejected. Finally, it is found that small firms may be credit rationed by the banks.

Do Portuguese private firms follow pecking order financing

This paper tests for pecking order behavior in medium-sized private Portuguese firms. In contrast to the usual split between internal funds, debt, and external equity, we separate debt into four components – cheap trade credits (CTC), bank loans (BL), other loans, and expensive credits (EC). We use breakpoint tests to identify when firms switch between funding sources by examining the change in each funding source based on the financing deficit remaining after the previous pecking order funding source has been used. Our tests indicate that Portuguese companies generally move from lower cost to higher cost financing sources, but they do not exhaust each type of debt before moving on to the next funding source in the pecking order. Such behavior is consistent with a loose interpretation of pecking order financing, but not a strict interpretation of the theory. Instead, Portuguese firms may be balancing pecking order financing with a need to maintain some degree of financing flexibility.

Deposit insurance and the stock market: evidence from Denmark

Previous studies of the relationship between deposit insurance and bank market values have usually been limited to consideration of minor changes in bank regulations, but the 1987 initiation of deposit insurance in Denmark permits examination of a potentially major policy shift. It is found that the market values of large Danish banks exhibited a modest positive reaction to the announcement of insurance, but that small risky banks responded negatively. These results partially contrast with those previously found for the USA, an outcome that seems likely to reflect the interaction of deposit insurance with the particular characteristics of the pre-existing Danish regulatory system.

Do Restatements Break Bad Habits? Evidence of Earnings Quality Following Restatements

Empirical research from the first years following SOX suggests that firms improve accruals quality following restatements, but both the number and materiality of restatements have declined since then. This decline may affect firms’ responses to restatements and hence we re-examine whether restatements are associated with subsequent improvements in accruals quality in a more recent sample. This paper uses a robust multivariate difference in- difference research design to compare the changes in accruals quality of firms restating between 2000 and 2014 with that of a control group matched with propensity score matching. We do not find that firms improve accruals quality more than the control group following a restatement, even when we isolate the types of restatements considered most material. However, we do find that restatements followed by the most negative stock market reactions are associated with a relative increase in accruals quality, indicating that only restatements deemed very severe by investors lead to subsequent improvements in accruals quality. This paper hence suggests that firms’ responses to restatements have changed concurrently with the trend of fewer and less material restatements in recent years.

The Quality of Securities Firms’ Earnings Forecasts and Stock Recommendations: Do Affiliation, Geography and Reputation Matter in China?

Using a unique database over local Chinese securities firm’s earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, it is shown that the average forecast error has decreased over time reflecting the maturing of the Chinese securities firms. Affiliated securities firms, defined as securities firms acting as investment banker/underwriter services, provide better earnings forecasts than un-affiliated firms which is contrary to findings from other countries. Also, forecast errors produced by local securities firms and star analysts are smaller. Finally single authored reports have larger forecasts errors than reports with several authors. In general financial markets react to stock recommendations from securities firms, but markets du not react differently to stock recommendations from affiliated and un-affiliated and local and non-local firms despite their superior earnings forecasts. As for affiliated firms, local securities firms provide better forecasts but these are not recognized by the financial markets in their reactions to stock recommendations. On the other hand financial markets react stronger to recommendations from highly ranked securities firms compared to lower ranked firms even though there is no difference in their ability to forecast earnings. Finally financial markets react stronger to stock recommendations by star analysts.