Jan Erik Haugen

Vulnerable or Resilient? A Multi-Scale Assessment of Climate Impacts and Vulnerability in Norway

This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multi-scale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research.

Temperature and Precipitation Development at Svalbard 1900–2100

Substantial variations in temperature and precipitation have been observed since the first permanent weather station was established in the Svalbard region in 1911. Temperature and precipitation development are analysed for the longest observational series, and periods with positive and negative trends are identified. For all temperature series, positive linear trends are found for annual values as well as spring, summer, and autumn series. A very strong winter warming is identified for the latest decades. Evaluation of temperature trends downscaled from global climate models forced with observed greenhouse gas emissions suggests that the downscaled results do span the observation-based trends at Svalbard Airport 1912–2010. Novel projections focussing on the Svalbard region indicate a future warming rate up to year 2100 three times stronger than observed during the latest 100 years. The average winter temperature in the Longyearbyen area at the end of this century is projected to be around 10°C higher than in present climate. Also for precipitation, the long-term observational series indicate an increase and the projections indicate a further increase up to year 2100.

A Spectral Limited-Area Model Formulation with Time-dependent Boundary Conditions Applied to the Shallow-Water Equations

Abstract The spectral technique is frequently used for the horizontal discretization in global atmospheric models. This paper presents a method where double Fourier series are used in a limited-area model (LAM). The method uses fast Fourier transforms (FFT) in both horizontal directions and takes into account time-dependent boundary conditions. The basic idea is to extend the time-dependent boundary fields into a zone outside the integration area in such a way that periodic fields are obtained. These fields in the extension zone and the forecasted fields inside the integration area are connected by use of a narrow relaxation zone along the boundaries of the limited area. The extension technique is applied to the shallow-water equations. A simple explicit (leapfrog) integration is shown to give results that are almost identical to the hemispherical forecast used as boundary fields. A nonlinear normal-mode initialization scheme developed in the framework of the spectral formulation is shown to work satisfac...

Changes in winter warming events in the Nordic Arctic Region

AbstractIn recent years extreme winter warming events have been reported in arctic areas. These events are characterized as extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, causing ecological disturbance and challenges for arctic societies and infrastructure. Ground-ice formation due to winter rain or melting prevents ungulates from grazing, leads to vegetation browning, and impacts soil temperatures. The authors analyze changes in frequency and intensity of winter warming events in the Nordic arctic region—northern Norway, Sweden, and Finland, including the arctic islands Svalbard and Jan Mayen. This study identifies events in the longest available records of daily temperature and precipitation, as well as in future climate scenarios, and performs analyses of long-term trends for climate indices aimed to capture these individual events. Results show high frequencies of warm weather events during the 1920s–30s and the past 15 years (2000–14), causing weak positive trends...

A Two Time-Level, Three-Dimensional, Semi-Lagrangian, Semi-implicit, Limited-Area Gridpoint Model of the Primitive Equations. Part II: Extension to Hybrid Vertical Coordinates

Abstract A two time-level, three-dimensional, semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit primitive equation gridpoint model that incorporates a sophisticated physics package and uses hybrid coordinates in the vertical is derived. A simple filter, which is needed to stabilize large time-step forecasts, is introduced. Using it, the model is shown to give accurate 24-h forecasts when integrated over a limited area using a 1.5°×1.5° Arakawa C grid in the horizontal and 16 levels in the vertical for time steps up to 2 h. Also, it is shown to give accurate forecasts on a 0.5°×0.5° horizontal grid, again using 16 vertical levels, for time steps up to 40 min, and to be as accurate as, and approximately twice as efficient as, a three time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme.

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

The paper provides an update of climate projections over Poland by adopting the new generation of concentration pathways and recent developments in climate modelling.It provides a dataset of scenarios of temperature and precipitation developed for nine individual RCM simulations and the ensamble one. For each RCM the bias is firstly assessed and than the scenario is adjusted. The scenarios are prepared on annual and seasonal resolution.

Model-Calculations of Transboundary Episodes of High So2-Concentrations due to Emissions in the Kola Peninsula

The production of non-ferrous metals from ores containing up to 30% of sulphur, are causing large emissions of SO2 close to the border of Norway at the Kola peninsula in north-west Russia. The total annual emissions released from smelters in the towns Nikel and Zapoljarnij, which are situated only 10–12 km from the Norwegian border, amounted to about 260 kilotonnes of SO2 in 1992 (Sivertsen et al., 1994). In comparison the total emissions from Norway for the same year was 37 kilotonnes of SO2. and corresponding numbers for Finland and Sweden were 121 kilotonnes and 101 kilotonnes respectively (Barret and Seland, 1995). Another smelter complex is located about 400 km to the east of the Norwegian border in Montsegorsk with similar emission amounts (Kulmala. 1987). These very efficient SO2-emitters will under favourable meteorological conditions cause transboundary environmental damage due to direct effects of SO2. Hourly concentration levels exceeding recommended critical levels for natural vegetation (150 μg(SO2)m−3; IUFRO, 1978) and air quality guideline values for human health (350 μg(SO2)m−3: WHO, 1987) have been measured at sites on the Norwegian side of the border (Sivertsen et al., 1992 and 1994). Extreme episodes of high hourly concentrations up to 2–3 mg(SO2)m−3 have been measured on some occasions.