Jan Henning Sommer

Projected impacts of climate change on regional capacities for global plant species richness

Climate change represents a major challenge to the maintenance of global biodiversity. To date, the direction and magnitude of net changes in the global distribution of plant diversity remain elusive. We use the empirical multi-variate relationships between contemporary water-energy dynamics and other non-climatic predictor variables to model the regional capacity for plant species richness (CSR) and its projected future changes. We find that across all analysed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios, relative changes in CSR increase with increased projected temperature rise. Between now and 2100, global average CSR is projected to remain similar to today (+0.3%) under the optimistic B1/+1.8°C scenario, but to decrease significantly (−9.4%) under the ‘business as usual’ A1FI/+4.0°C scenario. Across all modelled scenarios, the magnitude and direction of CSR change are geographically highly non-uniform. While in most temperate and arctic regions, a CSR increase is expected, the projections indicate a strong decline in most tropical and subtropical regions. Countries least responsible for past and present greenhouse gas emissions are likely to incur disproportionately large future losses in CSR, whereas industrialized countries have projected moderate increases. Independent of direction, we infer that all changes in regional CSR will probably induce on-site species turnover and thereby be a threat to native floras.

Vascular Plant Diversity in a Changing World: Global Centres and Biome-Specific Patterns

We summarize research on the global centres and gradients of vascular plant diversity. Most centres of plant species richness are located in geodiverse areas of the humid tropics and sub-tropics, especially in forest biomes. When focussing on the rarity of the flora, islands play an outstanding role. Endemism-scaled richness of oceanic island floras (endemism richness) exceeds those of mainland regions by several-fold. In contrast to the situation for most other groups of organisms, biodiversity patterns are relatively well understood for plants and vertebrates. However, plant diversity of some of the most important centres is still insufficiently documented – an important impediment for its conservation and sustainable use. Though habitat conversion and overexploitation have yet the most severe impact on plant diversity, future climate change is adding an additional threat. This will likely affect plant diversity, especially in low-latitude countries, which contributed least to the human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.

Marginality from a Socio-ecological Perspective

The authors analyze the concept of marginality from an ecological perspective and provide examples of some mechanisms of marginalization. Marginalization cannot solely be described as an ecological phenomenon, but rather occurs via the interplay of ecological and social aspects of complex arrangements. Hence the use of socio-ecological systems as a conceptual unit is proposed. One way to combat marginalization is to increase the resilience and adaptability of these systems. However, multiple needs must be considered simultaneously, including: food security, income generation, or ecosystem services. Research on marginality in the context of interlinked socio-ecological, complex, and dynamic systems demands paradigm shifts in scientific disciplines that are beginning to merge.