Jan Jakub Michałek

Poland's Accession to the European Union: Demand for Protection of Selected Sensitive Products

This paper analyses the expected changes in external tariffs and imports in Poland after accession to the European Union. We find that around 14% of all manufacturing commodity groups in the Harmonised System will experience tariff reductions of over 10 percentage points, while for agricultural goods tariff comparisons are complicated by very different tariff systems and may be overrated, since applied tariffs are often lower than those legislated. Based on gravity estimates we also find onlly few relatively narrowly defined commodities will experience import growth rates of above 20%. More widely defined sensitive commodities are subject to much smaller but still important import growth

Measuring the trade effects of the euro in Central and Eastern Europe

We study trade effects of the euro adoption in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). We employ a gravity model that controls for an extended set of trade theory and policy variables. The gravity model is estimated using the panel data approach on a sample of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and CEE countries trading with the rest of the world during the period 1993–2008. We find that the adoption of the euro results in trade expansion for the CEE countries. This result is driven by elimination of exchange rate volatility and accession to the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). However, our forecasts show that this effect is short-lived.

The Influence of Firm Characteristics and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Comparisons of Visegrad, Baltic and Caucasus States

In this paper we study the firm-level determinants of export performancein three groups of countries: the Visegrad, Baltic and Caucasus countries. Our analytical framework refers to the most recent strand in the new trade theory literature based on the Melitz (2003) model that stresses the importance of firm productivity in entering the export markets. The empirical implementation of the theoretical framework is based on the probit model and the BEEPS data set. Our empirical results confirm the importance of firm characteristics for export performance in the CEE countries. Also heterogeneity between different country groups within the region has been reported. Export competitiveness of firms from the CEE countries can be improved through the development of modern educational systems allowing to accelerate the accumulation of human capital. The financial support to research and development and innovation activities should also have a positive impact on the export performance of firms from the CEE countries. We take into account labor productivity and other firm characteristics that may affect export performance such as the age and the size of the firm, the use of human capital , and the degree of firm internationalization.

TECHNICAL BARRIERS TO TRADE NOTIFICATIONS AND DISPUTE SETTLEMENT WITHIN THE WTO

The aim of this paper is to verify empirically whether the Specific Trade Concerns (STCs) regarding Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) notifications by WTO members can serve as an early warning system for past and future disputes (DS) covering allegedly trade restricting TBTs. WTO members, in order to increase transparency of trade policies, have made efforts to compile data on notified TBTs. For several years the WTO provides a TBT dataset, used in our paper, which covers the STCs raised by its members (“reverse” notifications). From 1995-2011, there have been 45 requests for consultation under the Dispute Settlement (DS) Body of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in order to identify possible violations of the technical barriers to trade (TBT) agreement. This paper attempts to find the linkages between DS cases citing the TBT agreement and the STC data regarding TBTs. The DS Body’s decisions regarding possible violations of the TBT agreement are discussed in detail. Afterwards, we analyze, descriptively and econometrically, the relationship between notified STCs and DS consultations regarding TBTs.

Consequences of the Euro Adoption by Central and Eastern European (CEE) Countries for Their Trade Flows

In this paper we estimate the trade effects of the euro adoption in Central European countries using a modified gravity model. In particular, we analyze the ex post implications of accession of Slovenia and Slovakia to the Eurozone. We employ a gravity model that controls for an extended set of trade theory and policy variables. Trade theory variables include both the country size and factor proportion variables. Trade policy variables include the membership in GATT/WTO, CEFTA, OECD, EU and Europe Agreements. The gravity model is estimated using the panel data approach on a sample of CEE countries trading with the rest of the world during the period 1992-2010 using the fixed effects, random effects and Hausman-Taylor estimators. It seems that elimination of exchange rate volatility resulted in trade expansion for the CEE countries but the accession to the Eurozone did not have any significant effects on exports of Slovakia and Slovenia.

Euro and Trade Flows in Central Europe

In this paper we estimate the trade effects of the euro adoption in Central European countries using a modified gravity model. In particular, we analyze the ex post implications of accession of Slovenia and Slovakia to the Eurozone. We employ a gravity model that controls for an extended set of trade theory and policy variables. Trade theory variables include both the country size and factor proportion variables. Trade policy variables include the membership in GATT/WTO, CEFTA, OECD, EU and Europe Agreements. The gravity model is estimated using the panel data approach on a sample of CEE countries trading with the rest of the world during the period 1992-2009 using the fixed effects, random effects and Hausman-Taylor estimators. It seems that elimination of exchange rate volatility resulted in trade expansion for the CEE countries but the accession to the Eurozone did not have any significant effects on exports of Slovakia and Slovenia.

DETERMINANTS OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE OF UKRAINIAN FIRMS

Following the new strand in the new trade theory literature that focuses on firm heterogeneity, in this paper we investigate the determinants of a firm’s export performance in Ukraine. The study is based on the BEEPS firm level data compiled by EBRD and the World Bank. The study covers the period starting in 2005 and ending in 2013. We estimate the probit regressions for each year of our sample as well as for the pooled dataset that includes all years. Our pooled estimation results indicate that the probability of exporting is related to the level of productivity, the firm size, innovation, the share of university graduates in productive employment, as well as the internationalization of firms.

The Impact of the Common Currency on Exports of New EMU Members: Firm-level Evidence for Slovenia and Slovakia

There are many studies aiming at estimation of aggregate trade effects of the euro adoption by the old EU countries, which are based on the augmented gravity model. In contrast to the existing literature, we investigate whether the adoption of the common currency increases the export activity of individual firms. In particular, we refer to the new strand in the trade theory literature, based on the Melitz (2003) model, in which export performance depends on labor productivity and costs of exporting. There are already many empirical studies, based on firm level data, showing the relevance of the Melitz (2003) model. Most of those studies demonstrate that export performance positively depends on firms’ characteristics such as labor productivity, spending on R&D, age of the firm, the stock of human capital or propensity to innovate, but they do not take into account the impact of the common currency on the cost of exporting. There are only few studies analyzing trade implications of euro adoption for firms’ exports of “old EU” members. In our empirical paper we use the firm level data basis set up by the EBRD and the World Bank for Central and Eastern European Countries. Using the probit model, we analyze whether the accession of Slovenia and Slovakia to the Eurozone did increase the firms’ propensity to export in those countries.

Does the Common Currency Increase Exports? Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Abstract The main goal of this paper is to investigate empirically whether the adoption of the common currency increases the export activity of individual frms using the probity model. There are many studies that seek to estimate the aggregate trade effects of the adoption of the euro by the “outside” EU countries, which are based on the gravity model. In contrast to the existing literature we use an alternative micro econometric approach based on firm level data compiled by the EBRD and the World Bank. We demonstrate that the propensity to export of individual frms from Slovenia and Slovakia increased after the accession of those countries to the Eurozone.

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN CENTRAL EUROPE

In this paper we study the impact of social development on international trade in Central and Eastern Europe using the generalized gravity model. Many previous empirical studies which explored the determinants of trade flows, concentrated only on traditional gravity variables, such as the size of trading partners, factor abundance, technology differences or distance. In our study, in addition to the standard set of gravity variables, we examine the role of aggregate social develop-ment indicators such as Human Development Index and its components. Our results show that both aggregate and disaggregate measures of social development affect the volume of international trade flows. In particular, the education indexes seem to be positively related to bilateral trade flows.