Jan Kazak

FLOOD RISK FACTORS IN SUBURBAN AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES – CASE STUDY OF WROCLAW, POLAND

The uncontrolled sprawl of urban development exerts environmental impact in rural areas. The aim of this study is to identify areas vulnerable to climate change in the context of implementation of policies adapting to climate change at the local level. Such areas can be defined as those where the negative implication of flesh flood overlapping with soil sealing is observed. The study areas composed of municipalities which are influenced by the urban sprawl process of the city of Wroclaw, Poland. The analyses were performed using publicly available spatial data from aerial orthophotomaps from 2004–2012, the satellite images; archival and current land use maps. The database CORINE 1990, 2000, 2006; Urban Atlas and geodatabase of the European Environment Agency were also of an important usage for this study.

The Impact of a Large City on Land Use in Suburban Area – the Case of Wrocław (Poland)

Land use and the landscape of the suburban area are strongly affected by the impact of a large city, which is an important factor determining their development. The paper presents the results of analyses of the functional and spatial transformations depending on the distance from city limits and main access roads. The analyses were based on CORINE data for the years: 1990, 2000 and 2006. The spatial transformations in the specified distance buffers were described with use of the indicator of the share of specific land use areas in the total surface area and the indicator of the average landscape patch surface area. The conducted analyses confirm that the spatial patterns characteristic for suburbanisation exist in the vicinity of large cities and along access roads. The phenomena noticed in the suburban zone of Wrocław include, among others, an increased share of surface area used for residential purposes, a decreased area of arable lands, and an increased concentration of commercial and industrial areas in the direct proximity of the city and access roads.

Real Estate for the Ageing Society – the Perspective of a New Market

Abstract Currently, one of the key challenges on a global scale is the issue of an ageing society. The UN predicts that the number of people aged 60 and over will double by 2050 and treble by 2100. In the coming years, the demand for real estate that addresses the specific needs of older people will increase both qualitatively and quantitatively. Therefore, two main questions arise: What are the architectural features of real estate required to accommodate for the needs of an ageing society? Which European Union countries seem to have the highest and lowest potential to create a segment of the real estate market focused on older people? This paper contains a research overview in the field of the built environment for older people and case studies of different policies established by public authorities from past decades. The potential for real estate for an ageing society in EU countries was determined on the basis of variables collected by the UNECE. The results also enable assumptions to be made on which factors may influence future development in this area. Due to global climate changes combined with the urbanization process and resulting deterioration of air quality, heat island effect or poor accessibility to open areas, the ageing society will have to face the problem of adapting to these new conditions. Therefore, the authors assume that this will have a significant impact on the relocation of this age group on the real estate market in the future. The conclusions of the research contribute to general discussion on new trends in the real estate market and the assessment of future investments in real estate.

Spatial Data Analysis with the Use of ArcGIS and Tableau Systems

Nowadays there are different technologies enabling visualisation of spatial data. The combination of two different systems may enhance the visualisations and therefore better communication of the results to decision makers and the wider public. The aim of our contribution is to assess the possibility of combining the functionality of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Business Intelligence (BI) systems for spatial data visualisation. We assess the analytical and visualisation features of combined ESRI ArcGIS and BI Tableau systems with the use of the visual data exploration approach. For the purpose of this study, Geographic Information System is used as a data manager and a data blender. The geoprocessed feature class was stored in the personal geodatabase and then loaded into the Tableau environment. We present the selected functionality of visual data discovery on the example of land change flows in the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. In order to highlight the possibility to conduct analyses on different spatial levels, we ran the simulation at the local level and aggregated it to the regional level. The use of computational capabilities of GIS and BI enhance the geovisualisation on the map by quantitative analysis of tabular data, facilitate the visualisation of the results, and improve communication.

Urban Adaptation to Climate Change Plans and Policies – the Conceptual Framework of a Methodological Approach

The adaptation of urbanised areas to climate change is currently one of the key challenges in the domain of urban policy. The diversity of environmental determinants requires the formulation of individual plans dedicated to the most significant local issues. This article serves as a methodic proposition for the stage of retrieving data (with the PESTEL and the Delphi method), systemic diagnosis (evaluation of risk and susceptibility), prognosis (goal trees, goal intensity map) and the formulation of urban adaptation plans. The suggested solution complies with the Polish guidelines for establishing adaptation plans. The proposed methodological approach guarantees the participation of various groups of stakeholders in the process of working on urban adaptation plans, which is in accordance with the current tendencies to strengthen the role of public participation in spatial management. https://doi.org/10.12911/22998993/81658

Poverty Risk Index as A New Methodology for Social Inequality Distribution Assessment

The paper presents new concept of poverty risk index measurement due to dynamics of urban development among years. The rapid urbanization could seriously surpass the capacity of the most cities, which may lead to insufficient services of their inhabitants. Consequence of this situation could be polarized, social differentiated cities with high rates of urban poverty. The measurement and analysis of urban poverty phenomenon requires the dedicated tools and techniques. The data based assessment could allow planners and public policy makers to develop more socially integrated cities. This paper presents analysis of urban poverty phenomenon in Wroclaw city (Poland) during period 2010-2012. This analysis was conducted for ten Social Assistance Terrain Units (SATU) delineated at the city area. Our primary study objective concerns the proposal and calculation of poverty risk index based on diagnostic features, which represent the most common causes of social benefits granting, as: number of single households granted permanent benefits, number of people in families granted permanent benefits, number of people in families granted temporary benefits due to unemployment, number of people in families granted temporary benefits due to disability, number of people in families granted meals for children. The calculation was conducted by using the theory of development pattern - Hellwigs economic development measure. The analysis of poverty risk index showed that commonly the central and south-eastern part of the city is characterized by the highest poverty risk index. The obtained results of the inequalities spatial distribution relate to European and American patterns of poverty concentration in urban structures.

Geo-Dynamic Decision Support System for Urban Traffic Management

The paper presents the geo-dynamic decision support system (DSS) for urban traffic management issues. For this purpose, ArcGIS and Tableau softwares were used. Additionally, a self-defined transportation model based on Dijkstra’s algorithm was created. The use of our own calculation model allowed for the full accessibility to all parameters of the analysed scenarios which was one of the key assumptions of the research. Functionality of the proposed DSS was tested on three scenarios. Each scenario presents congestion on the road network after the conclusion of events in main landmarks in Wroclaw (Poland): the city stadium, the National Forum of Music and the Centennial Hall. The proposed DSS allows for dynamic analysis of urban traffic, including recalculation processes according to the changing congestion on a road network. Moreover, cumulative urban traffic assessment allows you to define hot spots on a network, which should be especially monitored by public services. An interactive dashboard reduces technical details of an analysis which helps to avoid the cognitive problems of the decision making process for a layman. The results prove the feasibility of the integration of the ArcGIS, self-defined transportation model and Tableau. The proposed solution enables full access to the transportation analysis’ assumptions, as well as the use of a simple and intuitive interactive dashboard for the decision making process.

Holistic Assessment of Spatial Policies for Sustainable Management: Case Study of Wroclaw Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

The Polish spatial planning system divides responsibility of shaping future development scenarios among communes. Administration on a higher level determines strategies, or the broader directions for development. Yet, the system does not assess the effects of spatial policies in a holistic way, and over a larger area containing several communes. Making wise decisions requires knowledge about potential impacts of human settlement and development. This paper presents the use of a decision support system (CommunityViz) for impact assessment of spatial growth policies for communes around City of Wroclaw (Large Urban Zone, or LUZ), as an example of geodesign. A simple but very useful impact model includes demographic, economic and environmental factors. This research has shown that CommunityViz can support holistic impact assessment of spatial policies of all the communes effectively.

Socio‐Environmental Vulnerability Mapping for Environmental and Flood Resilience Assessment: The Case of Ageing and Poverty in the City of Wrocław, Poland

The phenomena of urbanization and climate change interact with the growing number of older people living in cities. One of the effects of climate change is an increased riverine flooding hazard, and when floods occur this has a severe impact on human lives and comes with vast economic losses. Flood resilience management procedures should be supported by a combination of complex social and environmental vulnerability assessments. Therefore, new methodologies and tools should be developed for this purpose. One way to achieve such inclusive procedures is by incorporating a social vulnerability evaluation methodology for environmental and flood resilience assessment. These are illustrated for application in the Polish city of Wrocław. Socio-environmental vulnerability mapping, based on spatial analyses using the poverty risk index, data on the ageing population, as well as the distribution of the areas vulnerable to floods, was conducted with use of a location intelligence system combining Geographic Information System (GIS) and Business Intelligence (BI) tools. The new methodology allows for the identification of areas populated by social groups that are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of flooding. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:592-597.

Analysis of land use transformation potential in spatial management

Abstract The current system of spatial planning in Poland does not provide an effective and efficient tool for controlling planning decisions at a level higher than local. The result is an unrealistic approach to adopting development policies. Nowadays there is strong competition among local governments to attract investors, which results in excessive designation of investment areas and, consequently, an imbalance between supply and demand on the real estate market. An extremely important factor from the point of view of local authorities is also the financial burden on government budgets related to the implementation of the provisions of previously adopted policies. An improper spatial development policy can therefore generate costs without delivering the expected results, due to the lack of demand for the offered resources. A step in the right direction in optimizing how the spatial policy process is shaped may include conducting analyses and forecasts to support the decision-making process. Such analyses are needed both in terms of the amount of areas designed for each type of land use as well as their spatial distribution. Our considerations are focused on the second aspect. Analysis of land use transformation potential can be used in spatial management by selecting areas most where land use is most likely to change. The paper presents the simplified mechanisms of such analyses which can be adopted by the use of cellular automata. The final potential of an area is affected by variables such as the neighborhood, accessibility and suitability. As a result of the integration of these variables, it is possible to determine land use transformation potential. These considerations relate to the MOLAND (Monitoring Land Use/Cover Dynamics) research project and works on the development of the Metronamica decision support system, conducted in Western Europe.