Jan Lewandrowski

Land use and cover in ecological economics

A basic premise of ecological economics is that the world economy is embedded in and dependent upon Earths ecosystem. Because land is a basic source of mass and energy throughput in all terrestrial ecosystems, land use and cover represents an integrating element in ecological economics. We have developed a global model that captures this concept. We illustrate this concepts usefulness by showing how global changes in climate, human populations, and international trade policies might affect tropical forests. Results from our scenarios indicate that such changes would likely have adverse effects on the health and integrity of tropical forest ecosystems. Results from our scenarios also indicate that forest depletion in Southeast Asia can be correlated with numerous economic indicators. Whether the correlation with a particular economic variable is positive or negative depends on the global change scenario. This merely reflects the fact that interactions between economic and ecological phenomena are complex. Modeling capabilities can be expanded by adding economic and ecological detail, including more material on throughput, and developing methods for simulating dynamic analyses.

Estimating costs of protecting global ecosystem diversity

We estimate the costs to regional economies (as measured by the value of market goods and services forgone) from setting aside land to protect ecosystem diversity. Globally, our framework incorporates 43 unique sets of biological resources. The total annual costs (in 1990 dollars) of retiring 5, 10, and 15% of the worlds land area to protect these resources are

Agricultural Chemical Residues as a Source of Risk

45.5,

Global, regional and local food production and trade in a changing environment.

93.3, and

Restricting Grazing on Federal Lands in the West to Protect Threatened and Endangered Species: Ranch and Livestock Sector Impacts

143.8 billion, respectively. About 45% of global costs occur in Japan and the EC; the US cost share is 15%. Among regional economies, the most impacted sectors are crops, livestock, and forest products.

Eligibility Criteria Affecting Landowner Participation in Greenhouse Gas Programs

Exposures to individual agricultural chemical residues are a relatively small source of risk across selected environmental and human health end points; nutrients in water, of which agricultural uses are only one source, may be an exception. This may explain recent policy decisions to tighten regulation of nutrients in water resources. However, uncertainty about nutrient damages hinders design of an efficient policy to deal with nutrients.

World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations

Attempts to seriously investigate the impacts of potential changes in climate due to increased greenhouse gases dates to the mid- to late 1980s. Some of the advances in impact analysis since the first studies: 1) Explicit modeling of adaptation within the farm sector. 2) Consideration of agriculture as a global system that interacts through trade in agricultural products and input flows. Some work has been done but more is needed on: 1) How government policies and programs - ranging from crop insurance and disaster assistance to acreage reduction programs, tariffs and quotas, water pricing, and the level of agricultural research - will affect the response of the farm sector. 2) Consideration of climate change as only one of many forces along with changes in population, economic activity, and technology that will shape the agricultural economy over the coming decades. 3) Explicit consideration of the high levels of uncertainty in climate change prediction and the implications for adaptation of high levels of natural variability in weather. 4) Modeling of competition for land, water, labor, and capital as other sectors of the economy are affected by climate change.

Economic Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Agriculture: Assessing Recent Evidence

Ranch and livestock sector impacts are estimated for a 10% reduction in grazing on federal lands in the West to protect threatened and endangered species. Two sets of species are considered. One set targets species listed due to grazing and the other targets species whose recovery plans include restrictions on grazing. Using the former set and assuming no substitution between alternative sources of forage, the grazing restriction reduces annual ranch and livestock sector incomes by

Finished Product Inventories and Price Expectations in the Softwood Lumber Industry

54.4 and

Carbon sequestration through afforestation under uncertainty

83.7 million, respectively. For the latter set, the decreases in ranch and livestock sector incomes are