Jan-Pieter Smits

Exploring the historical roots of Eastern Asia's post-war catch-up growth: A trade perspective, 1906-1999

ABSTRACT This article relates the postwar economic transition in Eastern Asia to long-run developments in international trade (1906–1999). The role of foreign trade in transition growth is analysed by applying structural economic theory. A trade perspective allows for studying economic transition as a long-term phenomenon revealing a process of structural change in detail, and positioning economic development in a wider context of phases of globalization and de-globalization (1850–1013 and from the 1950s onwards) as well as de-globalization (1914–1950). Trade developments in Eastern Asia are compared with the Latin American record in foreign trade. The article argues that the expansion of trade in the Asian region during the era of globalization backlash (1914–1950) initiated important structural changes and a new international division of labour facilitating post-war rapid economic growth.

Historical Time Series Analysis: An Introduction and Some Applications

This article sketches some developments in historical time series analysis, i.e. the application of sophisticated statistical and econometric techniques to historical time series. After that, we present five applications on the economic development of the Netherlands over the last two centuries, and discuss implications for research in economic history. Acknowledgements We thank Rainer Fremdling for comments on an earlier version of this article.