Jan Schnitzler

Causes of Plant Diversification in the Cape Biodiversity Hotspot of South Africa

The Cape region of South Africa is one of the most remarkable hotspots of biodiversity with a flora comprising more than 9000 plant species, almost 70% of which are endemic, within an area of only ± 90,000 km2. Much of the diversity is due to an exceptionally large contribution of just a few clades that radiated substantially within this region, but little is known about the causes of these radiations. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of plant diversification, using near complete species-level phylogenies of four major Cape clades (more than 470 species): the genus Protea, a tribe of legumes (Podalyrieae) and two speciose genera within the iris family (Babiana and Moraea), representing three of the seven largest plant families in this biodiversity hotspot. Combining these molecular phylogenetic data with ecological and biogeographical information, we tested key hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the radiation of the Cape flora. Our results show that the radiations started throughout the Oligocene and Miocene and that net diversification rates have remained constant through time at globally moderate rates. Furthermore, using sister-species comparisons to assess the impact of different factors on speciation, we identified soil type shifts as the most important cause of speciation in Babiana, Moraea, and Protea, whereas shifts in fire-survival strategy is the most important factor for Podalyrieae. Contrary to previous findings in other groups, such as orchids, pollination syndromes show a high degree of phylogenetic conservatism, including groups with a large number of specialized pollination syndromes like Moraea. We conclude that the combination of complex environmental conditions together with relative climatic stability promoted high speciation and/or low extinction rates as the most likely scenario leading to present-day patterns of hyperdiversity in the Cape.

DIVERSIFICATION OF THE AFRICAN GENUS PROTEA (PROTEACEAE) IN THE CAPE BIODIVERSITY HOTSPOT AND BEYOND: EQUAL RATES IN DIFFERENT BIOMES

The Cape region of South Africa is a hotspot of flowering plant biodiversity. However, the reasons why levels of diversity and endemism are so high remain obscure. Here, we reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among species in the genus Protea, which has its center of species richness and endemism in the Cape, but also extends through tropical Africa as far as Eritrea and Angola. Contrary to previous views, the Cape is identified as the ancestral area for the radiation of the extant lineages: most species in subtropical and tropical Africa are derived from a single invasion of that region. Moreover, diversification rates have been similar within and outside the Cape region. Migration out of the Cape has opened up vast areas, but those lineages have not diversified as extensively at fine spatial scales as lineages in the Cape. Therefore, higher net rates of diversification do not explain the high diversity and endemism of Protea in the Cape. Instead, understanding why the Cape is so diverse requires an explanation for how Cape species are able to diverge and persist at such small spatial scales.

Diversity in time and space: wanted dead and alive

Current patterns of biological diversity are influenced by both historical and present-day factors, yet research in ecology and evolution is largely split between paleontological and neontological studies. Responding to recent calls for integration, we provide a conceptual framework that capitalizes on data and methods from both disciplines to investigate fundamental processes. We highlight the opportunities arising from a combined approach with four examples: (i) which mechanisms generate spatial and temporal variation in diversity; (ii) how traits evolve; (iii) what determines the temporal dynamics of geographical ranges and ecological niches; and (iv) how species-environment and biotic interactions shape community structure. Our framework provides conceptual guidelines for combining paleontological and neontological perspectives to unravel the fundamental processes shaping life on Earth.

A Bayesian framework to estimate diversification rates and their variation through time and space

BackgroundPatterns of species diversity are the result of speciation and extinction processes, and molecular phylogenetic data can provide valuable information to derive their variability through time and across clades. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods offer a promising framework to incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty when estimating rates of diversification.ResultsWe introduce a new approach to estimate diversification rates in a Bayesian framework over a distribution of trees under various constant and variable rate birth-death and pure-birth models, and test it on simulated phylogenies. Furthermore, speciation and extinction rates and their posterior credibility intervals can be estimated while accounting for non-random taxon sampling. The framework is particularly suitable for hypothesis testing using Bayes factors, as we demonstrate analyzing dated phylogenies of Chondrostoma (Cyprinidae) and Lupinus (Fabaceae). In addition, we develop a model that extends the rate estimation to a meta-analysis framework in which different data sets are combined in a single analysis to detect general temporal and spatial trends in diversification.ConclusionsOur approach provides a flexible framework for the estimation of diversification parameters and hypothesis testing while simultaneously accounting for uncertainties in the divergence times and incomplete taxon sampling.

Bayesian Estimation of Speciation and Extinction from Incomplete Fossil Occurrence Data

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems

Looking back to move forward The current impacts of humanity on nature are rapid and destructive, but species turnover and change have occurred throughout the history of life. Although there is much debate about the best approaches to take in conservation, ultimately, we need to permit or enhance the resilience of natural systems so that they can continue to adapt and function into the future. In a Review, Barnosky et al. argue that the best way to do this is to look back at paleontological history as a way to understand how ecological resilience is maintained, even in the face of change. Science, this issue p. eaah4787 BACKGROUND The pace and magnitude of human-caused global change has accelerated dramatically over the past 50 years, overwhelming the capacity of many ecosystems and species to maintain themselves as they have under the more stable conditions that prevailed for at least 11,000 years. The next few decades threaten even more rapid transformations because by 2050, the human population is projected to grow by 3 billion while simultaneously increasing per capita consumption. Thus, to avoid losing many species and the crucial aspects of ecosystems that we need—for both our physical and emotional well-being—new conservation paradigms and integration of information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences are required. ADVANCES Rather than attempting to hold ecosystems to an idealized conception of the past, as has been the prevailing conservation paradigm until recently, maintaining vibrant ecosystems for the future now requires new approaches that use both historical and novel conservation landscapes, enhance adaptive capacity for ecosystems and organisms, facilitate connectedness, and manage ecosystems for functional integrity rather than focusing entirely on particular species. Scientific breakthroughs needed to underpin such a paradigm shift are emerging at the intersection of ecology and paleobiology, revealing (i) which species and ecosystems will need human intervention to persist; (ii) how to foster population connectivity that anticipates rapidly changing climate and land use; (iii) functional attributes that characterize ecosystems through thousands to millions of years, irrespective of the species that are involved; and (iv) the range of compositional and functional variation that ecosystems have exhibited over their long histories. Such information is necessary for recognizing which current changes foretell transitions to less robust ecological states and which changes may signal benign ecosystem shifts that will cause no substantial loss of ecosystem function or services. Conservation success will also increasingly hinge on choosing among different, sometimes mutually exclusive approaches to best achieve three conceptually distinct goals: maximizing biodiversity, maximizing ecosystem services, and preserving wilderness. These goals vary in applicability depending on whether historical or novel ecosystems are the conservation target. Tradeoffs already occur—for example, managing to maximize certain ecosystem services upon which people depend (such as food production on farm or rangelands) versus maintaining healthy populations of vulnerable species (such as wolves, lions, or elephants). In the future, the choices will be starker, likely involving decisions such as which species are candidates for managed relocation and to which areas, and whether certain areas should be off limits for intensive management, even if it means losing some species that now live there. Developing the capacity to make those choices will require conservation in both historical and novel ecosystems and effective collaboration of scientists, governmental officials, nongovernmental organizations, the legal community, and other stakeholders. OUTLOOK Conservation efforts are currently in a state of transition, with active debate about the relative importance of preserving historical landscapes with minimal human impact on one end of the ideological spectrum versus manipulating novel ecosystems that result from human activities on the other. Although the two approaches are often presented as dichotomous, in fact they are connected by a continuum of practices, and both are needed. In most landscapes, maximizing conservation success will require more integration of paleobiology and conservation biology because in a rapidly changing world, a long-term perspective (encompassing at least millennia) is necessary to specify and select appropriate conservation targets and plans. Although adding this long-term perspective will be essential to sustain biodiversity and all of the facets of nature that humans need as we continue to rapidly change the world over the next few decades, maximizing the chances of success will also require dealing with the root causes of the conservation crisis: rapid growth of the human population, increasing per capita consumption especially in developed countries, and anthropogenic climate change that is rapidly pushing habitats outside the bounds experienced by today’s species. Fewer than 900 mountain gorillas are left in the world, and their continued existence depends upon the choices humans make, exemplifying the state of many species and ecosystems. Can conservation biology save biodiversity and all the aspects of nature that people need and value as 3 billion more of us are added to the planet by 2050, while climate continues to change to states outside the bounds that most of today’s ecosystems have ever experienced? Photo: E. A. Hadly, at Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda Conservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems. Integrating emerging information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences is an important step forward on the path to success. Maintaining nature in all its aspects will also entail immediately addressing the overarching threats of growing human population, overconsumption, pollution, and climate change.

PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Summary Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. 2. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. 3. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth–death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. 4. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

Evolution of microgastropods (Ellobioidea, Carychiidae): integrating taxonomic, phylogenetic and evolutionary hypotheses.

BackgroundCurrent biodiversity patterns are considered largely the result of past climatic and tectonic changes. In an integrative approach, we combine taxonomic and phylogenetic hypotheses to analyze temporal and geographic diversification of epigean (Carychium) and subterranean (Zospeum) evolutionary lineages in Carychiidae (Eupulmonata, Ellobioidea). We explicitly test three hypotheses: 1) morphospecies encompass unrecognized evolutionary lineages, 2) limited dispersal results in a close genetic relationship of geographical proximally distributed taxa and 3) major climatic and tectonic events had an impact on lineage diversification within Carychiidae.ResultsInitial morphospecies assignments were investigated by different molecular delimitation approaches (threshold, ABGD, GMYC and SP). Despite a conservative delimitation strategy, carychiid morphospecies comprise a great number of unrecognized evolutionary lineages. We attribute this phenomenon to historic underestimation of morphological stasis and phenotypic variability amongst lineages. The first molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the Carychiidae (based on COI, 16S and H3) reveals Carychium and Zospeum to be reciprocally monophyletic. Geographical proximally distributed lineages are often closely related. The temporal diversification of Carychiidae is best described by a constant rate model of diversification. The evolution of Carychiidae is characterized by relatively few (long distance) colonization events. We find support for an Asian origin of Carychium. Zospeum may have arrived in Europe before extant members of Carychium. Distantly related Carychium clades inhabit a wide spectrum of the available bioclimatic niche and demonstrate considerable niche overlap.ConclusionsCarychiid taxonomy is in dire need of revision. An inferred wide distribution and variable phenotype suggest underestimated diversity in Zospeum. Several Carychium morphospecies are results of past taxonomic lumping. By collecting populations at their type locality, molecular investigations are able to link historic morphospecies assignments to their respective evolutionary lineage. We propose that rare founder populations initially colonized a continent or cave system. Subsequent passive dispersal into adjacent areas led to in situ pan-continental or mountain range diversifications. Major environmental changes did not influence carychiid diversification. However, certain molecular delimitation methods indicated a recent decrease in diversification rate. We attribute this decrease to protracted speciation.

Niche evolution through time and across continents: The story of Neotropical Cedrela (Meliaceae)

UNLABELLED PREMISE OF THE STUDY Climatic and geological changes have been considered as major drivers of biological diversification. However, it has been generally assumed that lineages retain common environmental affinities, suggesting a limited capacity to switch their climatic niche. We tested this assumption with a study of the evolution of climatic niches in the Neotropical tree genus Cedrela (Meliaceae). • METHODS We combined distribution models of extant Cedrela with a dated molecular phylogeny based on one nuclear (ITS) and three plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnS-G and psbB-T-N) to reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of climatic niches. We calculated relative disparity of climatic tolerances over time to test for niche evolution within subclades or divergence between subclades and conservatism among closely related groups. Published fossil records and studies on paleosols were evaluated for the distribution and climatic conditions of extinct Cedrela. • KEY RESULTS The fossil record of Cedrela suggested a major biome shift from paratropical conditions into warm-temperate seasonal climates in the Early Oligocene of western North America. In the Miocene, Cedrela extended from North America (John Day Formation, Oregon, USA) to southern Central America (Gatún, Panama). Diversification in the early evolutionary history was mainly driven by changes in precipitation. Temperature had an increasing impact on ecological diversification of the genus from the Miocene onwards. Sister-species comparisons revealed that recent speciation events may be related to divergence of climatic tolerances. • CONCLUSIONS Our study highlights the complexity of climatic niche dynamics, and shows how conservatism and evolution have acted on different temporal scales and climatic parameters in Cedrela.

Twenty-million-year relationship between mammalian diversity and primary productivity

Significance Our study links diversity dynamics of fossil large mammals through time to primary productivity, i.e. net production of plant biomass. Spatial diversity patterns of extant terrestrial animals are often correlated with present-day primary productivity, but it is unclear whether the relationship holds throughout the geological past. Here we show that higher primary productivity was consistently associated with higher mammalian diversity throughout the geological period of the Neogene, supporting the hypothesis that energy flow from plants to consumers is a key factor determining the level of biodiversity. Our comparison of the fossil diversity–productivity relationship with present-day data suggests that human activity and Pleistocene climate change have conspired to dissolve the relationship that has characterized our planet over 20 My. At global and regional scales, primary productivity strongly correlates with richness patterns of extant animals across space, suggesting that resource availability and climatic conditions drive patterns of diversity. However, the existence and consistency of such diversity–productivity relationships through geological history is unclear. Here we provide a comprehensive quantitative test of the diversity–productivity relationship for terrestrial large mammals through time across broad temporal and spatial scales. We combine >14,000 occurrences for 690 fossil genera through the Neogene (23–1.8 Mya) with regional estimates of primary productivity from fossil plant communities in North America and Europe. We show a significant positive diversity–productivity relationship through the 20-million-year record, providing evidence on unprecedented spatial and temporal scales that this relationship is a general pattern in the ecology and paleo-ecology of our planet. Further, we discover that genus richness today does not match the fossil relationship, suggesting that a combination of human impacts and Pleistocene climate variability has modified the 20-million-year ecological relationship by strongly reducing primary productivity and driving many mammalian species into decline or to extinction.