Jan Sendzimir

Managing change toward adaptive water management through social learning

The management of water resources is currently undergoing a paradigm shift toward a more integrated and participatory management style. This paper highlights the need to fully take into account the complexity of the systems to be managed and to give more attention to uncertainties. Achieving this requires adaptive management approaches that can more generally be defined as systematic strategies for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of previous management actions. This paper describes how the principles of adaptive water management might improve the conceptual and methodological base for sustainable and integrated water management in an uncertain and complex world. Critical debate is structured around four questions: (1) What types of uncertainty need to be taken into account in water management? (2) How does adaptive management account for uncertainty? (3) What are the characteristics of adaptive management regimes? (4) What is the role of social learning in managing change? Major transformation processes are needed because, in many cases, the structural requirements, e.g., adaptive institutions and a flexible technical infrastructure, for adaptive management are not available. In conclusion, we itemize a number of research needs and summarize practical recommendations based on the current state of knowledge.

Tipping Toward Sustainability: Emerging Pathways of Transformation

This article explores the links between agency, institutions, and innovation in navigating shifts and large-scale transformations toward global sustainability. Our central question is whether social and technical innovations can reverse the trends that are challenging critical thresholds and creating tipping points in the earth system, and if not, what conditions are necessary to escape the current lock-in. Large-scale transformations in information technology, nano- and biotechnology, and new energy systems have the potential to significantly improve our lives; but if, in framing them, our globalized society fails to consider the capacity of the biosphere, there is a risk that unsustainable development pathways may be reinforced. Current institutional arrangements, including the lack of incentives for the private sector to innovate for sustainability, and the lags inherent in the path dependent nature of innovation, contribute to lock-in, as does our incapacity to easily grasp the interactions implicit in complex problems, referred to here as the ingenuity gap. Nonetheless, promising social and technical innovations with potential to change unsustainable trajectories need to be nurtured and connected to broad institutional resources and responses. In parallel, institutional entrepreneurs can work to reduce the resilience of dominant institutional systems and position viable shadow alternatives and niche regimes.

Rebuilding Resilience in the Sahel: Regreening in the Maradi and Zinder Regions of Niger

The societies and ecosystems of the Nigerien Sahel appeared increasingly vulnerable to climatic and economic uncertainty in the late twentieth century. Severe episodes of drought and famine drove massive livestock losses and human migration and mortality. Soil erosion and tree loss reduced a woodland to a scrub steppe and fed a myth of the Sahara desert relentlessly advancing southward. Over the past two decades this myth has been shattered by the dramatic reforestation of more than 5 million hectares in the Maradi and Zinder Regions of Niger. No single actor, policy, or practice appears behind this successful regreening of the Sahel. Multiple actors, institutions and processes operated at different levels, times, and scales to initiate and sustain this reforestation trend. We used systems analysis to examine the patterns of interaction as biophysical, livelihood, and governance indicators changed relative to one another during forest decline and rebound. It appears that forest decline was reversed when critical interventions helped to shift the direction of reinforcing feedbacks, e.g., vicious cycles changed to virtuous ones. Reversals toward de-forestation or reforestation were preceded by institutional changes in governance, then livelihoods and eventually in the biophysical environment. Biophysical change sustained change in the other two domains until interventions introduced new ideas and institutions that slowed and then reversed the pattern of feedbacks. However, while society seems better at coping with economic or climatic shock or stress, the resilience of society and nature in the Maradi/Zinder region to global sources of uncertainty remains a pressing question in a society with one of the highest population growth rates on Earth.

Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems: Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions

Over 40% of the earths land surface are drylands that are home to approximately 2.5 billion people. Livelihood sustainability in drylands is threatened by a complex and interrelated range of social, economic, political, and environmental changes that present significant challenges to researchers, policy makers, and, above all, rural land users. Dynamic ecological and environmental change models suggest that climate change induced drought events may push dryland systems to cross biophysical thresholds, causing a long-term drop in agricultural productivity. Therefore, research is needed to explore how development strategies and other socioeconomic changes help livelihoods become more resilient and robust at a time of growing climatic risk and uncertainty. As a result, the overarching goal of this special feature is to conduct a structured comparison of how livelihood systems in different dryland regions are affected by drought, thereby making methodological, empirical, and theoretical contributions to our understanding of how these types of social-ecological systems may be vulnerable to climate change. In introducing these issues, the purpose of this editorial is to provide an overview of the two main intellectual challenges of this work, namely: (1) how to conceptualize vulnerability to climate change in coupled social-ecological systems; and (2) the methodological challenges of anticipating trends in vulnerability in dynamic environments.

Towards adaptive and integrated management paradigms to meet the challenges of water governance

Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) aims at finding practical and sustainable solutions to water resource issues. Research and practice have shown that innovative methods and tools are not sufficient to implement IWRM - the concept needs to also be integrated in prevailing management paradigms and institutions. Water governance science addresses this human dimension by focusing on the analysis of regulatory processes that influence the behavior of actors in water management systems. This paper proposes a new methodology for the integrated analysis of water resources management and governance systems in order to elicit and analyze case-specific management paradigms. It builds on the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) that allows for the examination of structures and processes underlying water management and governance. The new methodology presented in this paper combines participatory modeling and analysis of the governance system by using the MTF to investigate case-specific management paradigms. The linking of participatory modeling and research on complex management and governance systems allows for the transfer of knowledge between scientific, policy, engineering and local communities. In this way, the proposed methodology facilitates assessment and implementation of transformation processes towards IWRM that require also the adoption of adaptive management principles. A case study on flood management in the Tisza River Basin in Hungary is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

European participatory scenario development: strengthening the link between stories and models

Scenario development methods get to grips with taking a long-term view on complex issues such as climate change through involvement of stakeholders. Many of the recent (global) scenario exercises have been structured according to a Story-and-Simulation approach. Although elaborately studied, conceptual and practical issues remain in linking qualitative stories and quantitative models. In this paper, we show how stakeholders can directly estimate model parameter values using a three-step approach called Fuzzy Set Theory. We focus on the effect of multiple iterations between stories and models. Results show that we were successful in quickly delivering stakeholder-based quantification of key model parameters, with full consistency between linguistic terms used in stories and numeric values. Yet, values changed strongly from one iteration to the next. A minimum of two and preferably at least three iterations is needed to harmonise stories and models. We conclude that the application of Fuzzy Set Theory enabled a highly valuable, structured and reproducible process to increase consistency between stories and models, but that future work is needed to show its true potential, particularly related to the effect of iterations. Additionally, the number of tools that need to be applied in a short period of time to execute a Story-And-Simulation approach introduces drawbacks that need to be studied. However, an approach such as Story-And-Simulation is indispensable and effective in marrying the perspectives of scientists and other stakeholders when studying complex systems and complex problems.

How Multilevel Societal Learning Processes Facilitate Transformative Change: A Comparative Case Study Analysis on Flood Management

Sustainable resources management requires a major transformation of existing resource governance and management systems. These have evolved over a long time under an unsustainable management paradigm, e.g., the transformation from the traditionally prevailing technocratic flood protection toward the holistic integrated flood management approach. We analyzed such transformative changes using three case studies in Europe with a long history of severe flooding: the Hungarian Tisza and the German and Dutch Rhine. A framework based on societal learning and on an evolutionary understanding of societal change was applied to identify drivers and barriers for change. Results confirmed the importance of informal learning and actor networks and their connection to formal policy processes. Enhancing a societys capacity to adapt is a long-term process that evolves over decades, and in this case, was punctuated by disastrous flood events that promoted windows of opportunity for change.

Resources Management in Transition

In recent years, the prospects of severe climate change have increasingly focused attention on the long-term sustainability of current practices of resource management, which no longer appear robust to uncertainty from extreme weather events or trends. Increased awareness of uncertainties and the complexity of the systems to be managed highlight the need for some profound changes in resource management (Gleick 2000, Pahl-Wostl 2007). Uncertainties and complexity have always characterized water management. Water management traditionally emphasizes the reduction of uncertainties, often by designing systems that can be predicted and controlled. This has resulted in a strong emphasis on technical solutions to rather narrowly defined problems. However, human– technology–environment systems are more appropriately described as complex adaptive systems where unpredictable co-evolution makes uncertainty irreducible. Managing under inevitable uncertainty requires improved learning and adaptation, in addition to control. The goal of management should be to increase the adaptive capacity to learn from and better cope with uncertain developments, rather than to try to find optimum solutions. Watermanagement science must confront the main barriers to learning and adaptation: path dependence emerging from sunk costs in prior paradigms, infrastructure, and existing practices. Developing new paradigms and practices has gained increasing importance with the attempt to implement integrated management approaches.

Role-playing simulation as a communication tool in community dialogue: Karkonosze mountains case study

This article describes a process of role-playing simulation (RPS) as it was used during an educational exercise in community dialogue in the Karkonosze Mountains region of southwest Poland. Over the past decade Karkonosze National Park, a regional tourist magnet, has provided an excellent example of environmental conflict emerging from the tensions between nature protection and economic development. The project we describe herein, a course called “Dynamics of Sustainable Development,” was designed to give students the direct experience of challenges in solving difficult social-ecological problems with many linked conflicts and tensions. We focused on RPS to emphasize factors crucial to compromise. Because teaching students about conflict solving was our main objective, the second indirect but expected experience was to stimulate discussions among real stakeholders. Although RPS itself was not performed in the presence of the real stakeholders, their participation was ensured by inviting them for a final public debate where they got a chance to express their opinions about what they heard from the students. RPS offered the course participants not only a closer look at the conflict in the Karkonosze related to sustainable development, but also an insight into the general psychological background and evolution of conflicts.

Perception of landslides risk and responsibility: a case study in eastern Styria, Austria

This paper presents a case study about the perception of landslide risk. Following a major set of landslides in the eastern part of Austria in June 2009, we surveyed local experts, residents who had suffered losses from the landslides, and others living in the affected communities. Overall, the risk perception was significantly higher among those who had been personally affected by a landslide, had knowledge of the geology in the study region, had been affected by another natural hazard, or spent a lot of time outdoors and in touch with nature. Non-experts viewed natural factors as the main causes for the occurrence of landslides, while experts viewed anthropogenic factors as more important. Likewise, non-experts placed a greater emphasis on hard measures (such as retaining walls) to reduce the risk, whereas the experts tended to focus on better information and land-use planning. In terms of responsibility for mitigative actions, a majority of inhabitants believed that public authorities should undertake most of the costs, whereby those who had personal experience with landslides were more likely to favor the government paying for it.