Jan Tinbergen

On the measurement of welfare

Abstract The author believes in the measurability of welfare (also called satisfaction or utility). Measurements have been made in the United States (Jorgenson and collaborators), France (Allais), and the Netherlands (Van Praag and collaborators). The Israeli sociologists Levy and Guttman have shown that numerous noneconomic variables are among the determinants of welfare. The determinants are numerous; the author proposes a list of about fifty. Various mathematical functions have been proposed, of which the logarithm of the determinants shows the highest correlation with welfare, as measured.

The Appraisal of Road Construction: two calculation schemes

Also published in: Joseph Berechman et al. (Eds), Transport and Land Use, Elgar Reference Collection Modern Classics in Regional Science Vol.2, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 1996, pp. 524-532. Also: Reprint No.5, Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam, 1957

Bestimmung und Deutung von Angebotskurven Ein Beispiel

textabstractIn English: Determination and Interpretation of Supply Curves: an example In: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 233-245

Kondratiev cycles and so-called long waves. The early research

Abstract This paper recalls some early work of the Dutch pioneers of long-wave research which anticipated many of the contemporary debates. Various explanations which have been advanced for the existence of long waves are reviewed, and the applicability of long-wave theories in a number of contexts is examined.

Some Remarks on the Problem of Dollar Scarcity

textabstractAt the prevailing exchange rates and price levels it appears that, considering the current items of the balance of payments of the United States, demand for dollars surpasses their supply. Or in other terms: American exports to the rest of the world (taking goods and services together) surpass imports from the other countries. For the moment, one of the chief reasons is the heavy reconstruction demand in many countries, particularly European, together with the low level of productivity in these areas. Many experts expect, however, that the disequilibrium will remain to some extent after the reconstruction period. The possibility of a permanent disequilibrium will hamper, they fear, even the action needed to solve the temporary dificulties. Granting credits for reconstruction to war-hit countries is not attractive unless in the long run an equilibrium will develop. It seems worth while, therefore, to investigate in some more detail the possibilities of restoring the equilibrium in the current items of the American balance of payments.

Optimum savings and utility maximization over time

textabstractThe problem dealt with in this article is whether we can indicate, with the help of measured economic concepts, the rate of savings--as a function of time--which maximizes utility over time. The author believes that his attempt has been unsuccessful, but hopes that the nature of the difficulties encountered may be of some help in future attempts to solve this problem. A problem regarding the most important decision to be taken for any development program.

The Theory of the Optimum Regime

This article attempts to summarize what seems to be the position of a large number of western economists on the question of the “best” economic regime. It has been written with a double purpose. On the one hand it seemed worth while to reformulate a set of doctrines that have emerged from various discussions in order to see where we stand and to make up our minds where further research is needed. On the other hand it seemed necessary that economists clarify, to a larger public, their views on a topic which plays a predominant role in the world’s largest controversy today; I mean the one between communist and non-communist opinion. Although this controversy, according to most western citizens, is primarily about political organization--democracy versus dictatorship--most communists put the emphasis in a different place. Moreover, quite a few westerners seem to see a close correspondence between the question of political regime and the one of economic regime. I am now referring to those rightist citizens who identify dictatorship with “socialism” and democracy with “capitalism” and in addition consider “socialism” and “capitalism” as two opposed economic systems without any intermediate forms. The question of the economic regime therefore plays an important role in the controversy between communists and non-communists.

The Notions of Horizon and Expectancy in Dynamic Economics

textabstractAlso published in: David F. Hendry and Mary S. Morgan (Eds), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1995, pp. 322-339

Critical Remarks on Some Business Cycle Theories

textabstractAlso published in: A.H. Hansen and R.V. Clemence (Eds), Readings in Business Cycles and National Income, Allen & Unwin, London, 1953, pp. 357-375

The velocity of integration

SummaryThroughout history small territories were integrated into larger units. Sometimes disintegration occurred. A quantitative characteristic of this process is its velocity,i.e. the reductionr of independent territories per annum or the growthg of the number of members of a larger unit. These figures were measured for France, Switzerland, Europe 1500-1900 and for the Western European integration. Velocities vary between 1.0002 and 1.0676. Variations can be partly explained, but require further explanation. Velocities may be used to estimate the time needed for the acceptance of additional members, the completion of European integration and world integration.