Jan Van Bavel

CHOICE OF STUDY DISCIPLINE AND THE POSTPONEMENT OF MOTHERHOOD IN EUROPE: THE IMPACT OF EXPECTED EARNINGS, GENDER COMPOSITION, AND FAMILY ATTITUDES*

Theory suggests that the field of study may be at least as consequential for fertility behavior as the duration and level of education. Yet, this qualitative dimension of educational achievement has been largely neglected in demographic studies. This article analyzes the mechanisms relating the field of study with the postponement of motherhood by European college-graduate women aged 20-40. The second round of the European Social Survey is used to assess the impact of four features of study disciplines that are identified as key to reproductive decision making: the expected starting wage, the steepness of the earning profile, attitudes toward gendered family roles, and gender composition. The results indicate that the postponement of motherhood is relatively limited among graduates from study disciplines in which stereotypical attitudes about family roles prevail and in which a large share of the graduates are female. Both the level of the starting wage and the steepness of the earning profile are found to be associated with greater postponement. These results are robust to controlling for the partnership situation and the age at entry into the labor market.Theory suggests that the field of study may be at least as consequential for fertility behavior as the duration and level of education. Yet, this qualitative dimension of educational achievement has been largely neglected in demographic studies. This article analyzes the mechanisms relating the field of study with the postponement of motherhood by European college-graduate women aged 20–40. The second round of the European Social Survey is used to assess the impact of four features of study disciplines that are identified as key to reproductive decision making: the expected starting wage, the steepness of the earning profile, attitudes toward gendered family roles, and gender composition. The results indicate that the postponement of motherhood is relatively limited among graduates from study disciplines in which stereotypical attitudes about family roles prevail and in which a large share of the graduates are female. Both the level of the starting wage and the steepness of the earning profile are found to be associated with greater postponement. These results are robust to controlling for the partnership situation and the age at entry into the labor market.

Subreplacement fertility in the West before the baby boom: Past and current perspectives

Between 1920 and 1940, fertility dropped below replacement level in many Western countries. In todays scholarly literature, the drop is usually explained as a temporary reaction to the exceptional conditions of the inter-war period. This paper confronts that interpretation with the interpretations offered by scholars writing between the wars. According to leading demographers of the time, low fertility was due not to war or economic crisis, but rather to processes that now tend to be associated with the Second Demographic Transition, including secularization, individualization, rising consumerism, and womens emancipation. Since these were seen as structural features of modernization, most inter-war scholars argued that subreplacement fertility would remain an obstinate feature of modern society for an extended period of time.Between 1920 and 1940, fertility dropped below replacement level in many Western countries. In todays scholarly literature, the drop is usually explained as a temporary reaction to the exceptional conditions of the inter-war period. This paper confronts that interpretation with the interpretations offered by scholars writing between the wars. According to leading demographers of the time, low fertility was due not to war or economic crisis, but rather to processes that now tend to be associated with the Second Demographic Transition, including secularization, individualization, rising consumerism, and womens emancipation. Since these were seen as structural features of modernization, most inter-war scholars argued that subreplacement fertility would remain an obstinate feature of modern society for an extended period of time.

A mixed effects model of birth spacing for pre-transition populations: Evidence of deliberate fertility control from nineteenth century Netherlands

It has often been argued that there are good theoretical and historical reasons to expect that deliberate birth spacing has played an important role in fertility patterns before the demographic transition. Yet, it has proved difficult to find hard empirical evidence. In this article, we propose a new model of the speed of parity progression that includes both fixed and random effects and that efficiently captures unobserved heterogeneity between couples in fecundability and postpartum amenorrhea. With this model, we demonstrate that pre-transition couples in the Netherlands indeed spaced their births during about the first ten years of marriage. In addition, we have found strong differentials in birth intervals by socio-economic position and religion. Finally, we also show how and why the model can be used with left-censored census data. ☆u2003An earlier version was presented at the XXV International Population Conference (IUSSP), Tours, France, July 2005.

Detecting Stopping and Spacing Behaviour in Historical Demography. A Critical Review of Methods

Couples who have started to reproduce and subsequently want to limit their fertility can follow two strategies: birth spacing or stopping. Spacing consists of increasing the intervals between successive births, while the stopping strategy attempts to prevent further reproduction altogether after the maximum desired number of children has been reached (Knodel, 1987; Okun, 1995).It is widely accepted among scholars that stopping has played the major role in the European historical fertility transition. This article contributes to the reopened debate about the role of spacing before and during the fertility transition (see Okun, 1995: Hionidou. 1998; Friedlander, Okun and Segal, 1999: Fisher, 2000; Clcgg. 2001). First, it will show how historical research on the fertility transition has been methodologically incapable of detecting intentional spacing behaviour in a convincing manner. secondly, it makes suggestions about the kind of methods to be used in future historical demographic research in order to assess the role of spacing.I. Commonly used methods for detecting stopping and spacingDuring the past decades, several attempts have been made to develop methods for detecting birth spacing in historical fertility data. Most attempts have not been entirely convincing. Yet, even if one assumes that spacing has not demonstrably played an important role in the European fertility transition, there is no hard evidence to the contrary either.Another index of fertility control that has often been used is the mothers age at last childbearing. Although a declining age has generally been interpreted as reflecting stopping behaviour, increased spacing has been shown to reduce age at last birth as well. There has been some controversy regarding the magnitude of that effect (see Knodel, 1987; Anderton, 1989; and the response by McDonald and Knodel, 1989), but simulations have shown that reductions in the mean age at last birth cannot be interpreted uncritically as a sign of stopping behaviour only (Okun, 1995). The same holds for an increase in the length of the last closed birth interval, which has been interpreted as evidence of failed attempts to stop childbearing. However, increased spacing affects all birth intervals, including the last. Since both forms of fertility regulation inflate the ultimate closed interval, research cannot differentiate between stopping and spacing by examining changes in the length of this interval (Okun, 1995).The main point to be made in the following discussion is that the lack of conclusive evidence in favour of or against spacing behaviour is also a consequence of the fact that many historical demographic analyses are carried out at a highly aggregated level. The next paragraphs investigate the consequences of such aggregations on different measures of spacing and stopping.1. Parity progression schedulesA well-known, more elaborate method for detecting fertilityinhibiting behaviour consists of investigating birth intervals as a function of the final number of children born in completed fertility histories (Knodel, 1987; Anderton and Bean, 1985). Some features of the pattern of birth intervals by final parity are true under conditions of natural fertility. First, the length of the intervals is negatively related to the final number of children born. Couples that reach a higher family size have on average shorter birth intervals. Second, within each final parity group, the length of the intervals increases with parity; the interval between the first and the second child is on average shorter than the one between the second and the third, and so on. This is basically a result of decreasing fecundity. Finally, the increase in length between the penultimate and the ultimate interval is greater than the increase between successive intervals at lower parities. This is expected when couples try to stop childbearing but holds as well under conditions of natural fertility. …

Social Control and the Intergenerational Transmission of Age at Marriage in Rural Holland, 1850-1940

This paper focuses on the intergenerational transmission of age at first marriage from mothers to daughters in rural Holland before and during the early stages of the fertility transition. We use a detailed dataset with two generations of marriages stemming from the province of North Holland in the Netherlands. Multilevel models are used to analyse the effect of first-generation family characteristics on second-generation daughters ages at first marriage. A crucial advantage compared to conventional family reconstitution studies is that we traced daughters wherever they migrated in the Netherlands. The results clearly indicate that age at first marriage was to some extent transmitted from mothers to daughters. Yet the transmssion effect is not common to all social classes and religious denominations. It is present among the working and middle classes but virtually absent among farmers. It is strong among Protestants but weak among Catholics. These findings support suggestions in the recent literature that family transmission of reproductive behaviour is stronger in societal circumstances with less group pressure and more individual decision-making.

Distinguer contraception d'arrêt et contraception d'espacement. Revue des méthodes en démographie historique

Les couples qui, apres avoir eu un certain nombre denfants, desirent limiter leur f6condite ou y mettre un terme peuvent choisir entre deux strategies lespacement des naissances ou larret de la procreation. Lespacement consiste a allonger les intervalles entre naissances successives, tandis que la strategie darret vise a eviter toute conception une fois atteint le nombre denfants desire (Knodel, 1987; Okun, 1995).

Low Second Birth Rates in Eastern and Southern Europe: Interactions between Economic Uncertainty and Norms about Parenthood

Opportunities and constraints for young adult people in the labour market are strongly affected by their childrearing responsibilities, which are, in turn, a product of their fertility. Given the unequal gender division of labour in childcare and household chores, this holds for women in particular. At the same time, economic welfare is strongly affected by labour market activity, and economic welfare strongly affects opportunities and constraints for family life, including childrearing. An insight into the relationship between economic uncertainty and childbearing is, therefore, also relevant for understanding labour market dynamics.

Economic, Social and Demographic Thought in the XIXth Century. The Population Debate from Malthus to Marx

Economic, Social and Demographic Thought in the XIXth Century. The Population Debate from Malthus to Marx. 2009. By YVES CHARBIT. Dordrecht: Springer. Pp. ix + 189. £90.00. ISBN: 978-1-4020-9959-5....the opening sections that aim to set out the structure of the argument. More annoying, however, are the occasional lapses in idiomatic English (e.g., ‘seeked’ for ‘sought’, the use of words like ‘levirate’ without explanation) and the many proof-reading errors: missed apostrophes, words and phrases left in French, inconsistent dating of references, and bibliography entries out of alphabetical order. The author has not been well served by his publisher, whose responsibility it must be to ensure the text is properly checked and edited. This is a learned book that offers intelligent contextualizing readings of some key texts of early modern political and economic thought, and uses these to make an important point about the conventional teleological narratives of the development of demography as a discipline. As someone who is interested in all these things, I found it informative and illuminating, but my concern is that the book will find itself caught between disciplinary boundaries, at least as they are constituted in the Englishspeaking world; it has something to offer to a wide range of different audiences, but does not succeed in engaging properly with any one of them.