Jan Van Winckel

The relative age effect in youth soccer across Europe

The potential asymmetries in the birth-date distributions of youth soccer players across ten European countries (2175 age citations) were considered. First, we examined the birth-dates of players representing national youth teams in international competitions. Second, the birth-dates of players representing professional club teams in international youth tournaments were analysed. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were used to assess differences between observed and expected birth-date distributions. Regression analyses were employed to examine the relationship between month of birth and number of players in the different samples. The results showed an over-representation of players born in the first quarter of the selection year (from January to March) for all the national youth selections at the under-15 (U-15), U-16, U-17 and U-18 age categories, as well as for the UEFA U-16 tournaments and Meridian Cup. Players with a greater relative age are more likely to be identified as “talented” because of the likely physical advantages they have over their “younger” peers. Some options for reducing the relative age effect are offered.

The influence of relative age on success and dropout in male soccer players

The consistent asymmetry in the birth‐date distribution of senior professional soccer players has led us to investigate whether similar asymmetries emerge throughout youth categories in soccer. Birth dates were considered for professional players, national youth teams, youth players transferred to top teams, and regular youth league players. Kolmogorov Smirnov tests assessed differences between observed and expected birth‐date distributions. Regression analyses examined the relationship between month of birth and number of participants at various levels of play in soccer. Results indicated that youth players born from August to October (the early part of the selection year), beginning in the 6–8 year age group, are more likely to be identified as talented and to be exposed to higher levels of coaching. Eventually, these players are more likely to be transferred to top teams, to play for national teams, and to become involved professionally. In comparison, players born late in the selection year tended to dropout as early as 12 years of age. Recommendations suggest a review of the 24‐month age band and current methods for talent detection and selection. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 10:791–798, 1998.

Effect of a change in selection year on success in male soccer players.

Since 1997 and following the guidelines of the International Football Association, the Belgian Soccer Federation has used January 1st as the start of the selection year. Previously, August 1 was the start. This shift prompted an investigation of changes in birth‐date distributions throughout youth categories for 1996–1997 compared to the 1997–1998 competitive years. Birth dates were considered for national youth league players, ages 10–12, 12–14, 14–16, and 16–18 years. Kolmogorov Smirnov tests assessed differences between observed and expected birth‐date distributions. Regression analyses examined the relationship between month of birth and number of participants both before and after the August to January shift. Results indicated that from 1996 to 1997, youth players born from January to March (the early part of the new selection year) were more likely to be identified as “talented” and to be exposed to higher levels of coaching. In comparison, players born late in the new selection year (August to October) were assessed as “talented” in significantly lower proportions. Specific suggestions are presented to reduce the relative age effect. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 12:729–735, 2000.

The relative age effect in European professional soccer: Did ten years of research make any difference?

Abstract The relative age effect (RAE) refers to an asymmetry in the birth-date distribution favouring players born early in the selection year and discriminating against participants born later in the year. While the RAE effect was initially reported in sport more than two decades ago, there have been few attempts to examine whether player selection strategies have changed over time in light of our improved understanding of the phenomenon. We compared the birth-date distributions of professional soccer players in ten European countries over a 10-year period involving the 2000–2001 and 2010–2011 competitive seasons, respectively. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests were used to compare differences between the observed and expected birth-date distributions across selection years. Generally, results indicated no change in the RAE over the past 10 years in professional soccer, emphasizing the robust nature of this phenomenon. We propose a change in the structure of youth involvement in soccer to reduce the impact of the RAE on talent identification and selection.