Jan W. Rivkin

ESTIMATING THE PERFORMANCE EFFECTS OF BUSINESS GROUPS IN EMERGING MARKETS

Business groups—confederations of legally independent firms—are ubiquitous in emerging economies, yet very little is known about their effects on the performance of affiliated firms. We conceive of business groups as responses to market failures and high transaction costs. In doing so, we develop hypotheses about the effects of group affiliation on firm profitability: affiliation could either boost or depress firm profitability, and members of a group are likely to earn rates of return similar to other members of the same group. Using a unique data set compiled largely from local sources, we test for these effects in 14 emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Israel, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. We find evidence that business groups indeed affect the broad patterns of economic performance in 12 of the markets we examine. Group affiliation appears to have as profound an effect on profitability as does industry membership, yet strategy scholars have a much clearer grasp of industries than of groups. Moreover, membership in a group raises the profitability of the average group member in several of the markets we examine. This runs contrary to the wisdom, conventional in advanced economies, that unrelated diversification depresses profitability. Overall, our findings suggest that the roots of sustained differences in profitability may vary across institutional contexts; conclusions drawn in one context may well not apply to another. Copyright

Balancing Search and Stability: Interdependencies Among Elements of Organizational Design

We examine how and why elements of organizational design depend on one another. An agent-based simulation allows us to model three design elements and two contextual variables that have rarely been analyzed jointly: a vertical hierarchy that reviews proposals from subordinates, an incentive system that rewards subordinates for departmental or firm-wide performance, the decomposition of an organizations many decisions into departments, the underlying pattern of interactions among decisions, and limits on the ability of managers to process information. Interdependencies arise among these features because of a basic, general tension. To be successful, an organization must broadly search for good sets of decisions, but it must also stabilize around good decisions once discovered. An effective organization balances search and stability. We identify sets of design elements that encourage broad search and others that promote stability. The adoption of elements that encourage broad search typically raises the marginal benefit of other elements that provide offsetting stability. Hence, the need to balance search and stability generates interdependencies among the design elements. We pay special attention to interdependencies that involve the vertical hierarchy. Our findings confirm many aspects of conventional wisdom about vertical hierarchies, but challenge or put boundary conditions on others. We place limits, for instance, on the received wisdom that firm-wide incentives and capable subordinates make top-level oversight less valuable. We also identify circumstances in which vertical hierarchies can lead to inferior long-term performance.

Speed and Search: Designing Organizations for Turbulence and Complexity

We use an innovative technique to examine an enduring but recently neglected question: How do environmental turbulence and complexity affect the appropriate formal design of organizations? We construct an agent-based simulation in which multidepartment firms with different designs face environments whose turbulence and complexity we control. The models results produce two sets of testable hypotheses. One set pinpoints formal designs that cope well with three different environments: turbulent settings, in which firms must improve their performance speedily; complex environments, in which firms must search broadly; and settings with both turbulence and complexity, in which firms must balance speed and search. The results shed new light on longstanding notions such as equifinality. The other set of hypotheses argues that the impact of individual design elements on speed and search often depends delicately on specific powers granted to department heads, creating effects that run contrary to conventional wisdom and intuition. Ample processing power at the bottom of a firm, for instance, can slow down the improvement and narrow the search of the firm as a whole. Differences arise between our results and conventional wisdom when conventional thinking fails to account for the powers of department heads--powers to withhold information about departmental options, to control decision-making agendas, to veto firmwide alternatives, and to take unilateral action. Our results suggest how future empirical studies of organizational design might be fruitfully coupled with rigorous agent-based modeling efforts.

On the Origin of Strategy: Action and Cognition over Time

We develop a perspective on how managers search for a strategy. In the spirit of Cyert and March (1963), we aim for a perspective that reflects the reality of managerial behavior, that respects both the reasoning power of managers and the bounds on their rationality, and that permits organizations to change but within realistic limits. Our perspective employs the variable time to frame the question of strategys origins in a distinctive way. Over time, the cognitive and physical elements that make up a strategy become less plastic, while mechanisms to search rationally for a strategy become more available. This generates a fundamental tension in the origin of strategy: Managers struggle to understand their environment well enough to search rationally for an effective strategy before their firms lose the plasticity necessary to exploit that understanding. A focus on time allows us to synthesize and extend the evolutionary and positioning models of strategic search. Toward this end, we couple induction and deduction. The inductive part of the paper uses detailed observation of the search for a strategy at one firm to identify constructs that play a crucial role in strategic search. The deductive part steps beyond our focal firm and uses these constructs to derive theoretical propositions about the typical path of strategic search and the mortality associated with different approaches to search.

Patterned Interactions in Complex Systems: Implications for Exploration

Scholars who view organizational, social, and technological systems as sets of interdependent decisions have increasingly used simulation models from the biological and physical sciences to examine system behavior. These models shed light on an enduring managerial question: How much exploration is necessary to discover a good configuration of decisions? The models suggest that, as interactions across decisions intensify and local optima proliferate, broader exploration is required. The models typically assume, however, that the interactions among decisions are distributed randomly. Contrary to this assumption, recent empirical studies of real organizational, social, and technological systems show that interactions among decisions are highly patterned. Patterns such as centralization, small-world connections, power-law distributions, hierarchy, and preferential attachment are common. We embed such patterns into an NK simulation model and obtain dramatic results: Holding fixed the total number of interactions among decisions, a shift in the pattern of interaction can alter the number of local optima by more than an order of magnitude. Thus, the long-run value of broader exploration is significantly greater in the face of some interaction patterns than in the face of others. We develop simple, intuitive rules of thumb that allow a decision maker to examine two interaction patterns and determine which warrants greater investment in broad exploration. We also find that, holding fixed the interaction pattern, an increase in the number of interactions raises the number of local optima regardless of the pattern. This validates prior comparative static results with respect to the number of interactions, but highlights an important implicit assumption in earlier work---that the underlying interaction pattern remains constant as interactions become more numerous.

When Exploration Backfires: Unintended Consequences of Multilevel Organizational Search

An enduring belief is that unleashing low-level members of an organization to explore extensively will broaden the exploration conducted by the entire organization. Using an agent-based simulation ...

Interorganizational Ties and Business Group Boundaries: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

We identify which types of ties best distinguish pairs of Chilean firms in the same business group from pairs of Chilean firms that are not group brethren. Overlap in owners, indirect equity holdings, and director interlocks are especially strong delineators of group boundaries. Family connections and direct equity holdings do not do as good a job of distinguishing group boundaries. These findings challenge the longstanding conventional wisdom among field-based scholars that family bonds are the defining feature of business groups in emerging markets. We speculate that family bonds are so durable that, over time, they come to pervade the entirety of an economy and lose their ability to distinguish business groups from the overall network of social and economic ties. Our techniques to identify business groups may apply to research on other types of groupsinterpersonal and interorganizationalin which ties among actors are multiplex, ties are only partly observed, and group definitions are socially constructed.

Hiding the Evidence of Valid Theories: How Coupled Search Processes Obscure Performance Differences among Organizations

Theorists argue that an organizations high-level choices, such as its organizational design or the attributes of its top management team, should influence its performance, yet empirical researchers have struggled to detect such influence. The impact of high-level choices may appear weak, we theorize, because the choices are embedded in coupled search processes. A coupled search process exists in an organization when managers search for high-level choices that shape the search for low-level, operational choices, which in turn determine performance. Using a simulation model, we show that coupled search processes obscure the performance impact of high-level choices through two mechanisms: (1) a survivor effect, arising because firms that persist with poor high-level choices are those that luckily happened on good low-level choices despite their poor high-level choices, and (2) a wanderer effect, arising when firms use good high-level choices to find good low-level choices and achieve strong performance but then wander toward poor high-level choices. We show that these effects are particularly strong in stable environments, and we identify empirical strategies that can tease out the true performance impact of high-level choices.

Informational Complexity and the Flow of Knowledge across Social Boundaries

Applied Evolutionary Economics and Economic Geography aims to further advance empirical methodologies in evolutionary economics, with a special emphasis on geography and firm location. It does so by bringing together a select group of leading scholars including economists, geographers and sociologists, all of whom share an interest in explaining the uneven distribution of economic activities in space and the historical processes that have produced these patterns.

Speed, Search and the Failure of Simple Contingency

It is widely accepted that an organizations internal design should be contingent on the nature of its external environment. Yet attempts to construct simple contingency relationships - i.e., one-to-one mappings from environmental conditions to appropriate design elements - have met with limited success. We shed light on this lack of success by means of an agent-based simulation in which modeled firms of different designs face various environmental conditions. We find robustly that turbulent environments call for organizational features that generate high speed of improvement, and complex environments call for features that engender diverse search. The precise design features that produce speedy improvement and diverse search, however, vary dramatically from one decision-making archetype to another. A feature that accelerates improvement in a decentralized firm, for instance, may slow it down in a hierarchical firm. It is this subtlety that undermines simple contingency relationships. We argue that the intermediate constructs speed of improvement and diversity of search clarify the mapping between environment and appropriate design and may point the way to more nuanced contingency hypotheses.