Jana Fruth

Retrospective Bayesian outlier detection in INGARCH series

INGARCH models for time series of counts arising, e.g., in epidemiology or finance assume the observations to be Poisson distributed conditionally on the past, with the conditional mean being an affine-linear function of the previous observations and the previous conditional means. We model outliers within such processes, assuming that we observe a contaminated process with additive Poisson distributed contamination, affecting each observation with a small probability. Our particular concern are additive outliers, which do not enter the dynamics of the process and can represent measurement artifacts and other singular events influencing a single observation. Retrospective analysis of such outliers is difficult within a non-Bayesian framework since the uncontaminated values entering the dynamics of the process at contaminated time points are unobserved. We propose a Bayesian approach to outlier modeling in INGARCH processes, approximating the posterior distribution of the model parameters by application of a componentwise Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Analyzing real and simulated data sets, we find Bayesian outlier detection with non-informative priors to work well in practice when there are some outliers in the data.

Sequential designs for sensitivity analysis of functional inputs in computer experiments

Computer experiments are nowadays commonly used to analyze industrial processes aiming at achieving a wanted outcome. Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on the response variable. In this work we focus on sensitivity analysis of a scalar-valued output of a time-consuming computer code depending on scalar and functional input parameters. We investigate a sequential methodology, based on piecewise constant functions and sequential bifurcation, which is both economical and fully interpretable. The new approach is applied to a sheet metal forming problem in three sequential steps, resulting in new insights into the behavior of the forming process over time.

Computer experiments with functional inputs and scalar outputs by a norm-based approach

A framework for designing and analyzing computer experiments is presented, which is constructed for dealing with functional and scalar inputs and scalar outputs. For designing experiments with both functional and scalar inputs, a two-stage approach is suggested. The first stage consists of constructing a candidate set for each functional input. During the second stage, an optimal combination of the found candidate sets and a Latin hypercube for the scalar inputs is sought. The resulting designs can be considered to be generalizations of Latin hypercubes. Gaussian process models are explored as metamodel. The functional inputs are incorporated into the Kriging model by applying norms in order to define distances between two functional inputs. We propose the use of B-splines to make the calculation of these norms computationally feasible.

Bayesian outlier detection in INGARCH time series

INGARCH models for time series of counts arising, e.g., in epidemiology assume the observations to be Poisson distributed conditionally on the past, with the conditional mean being an affinelinear function of the previous observations and the previous conditional means. We model outliers within such processes, assuming that we observe a contaminated process with additive Poisson distributed contamination, affecting each observation with a small probability. Our particular concern are additive outliers, which do not enter the dynamics of the process and can represent measurement artifacts and other singular events influencing a single observation. Such outliers are difficult to handle within a non-Bayesian framework since the uncontaminated values entering the dynamics of the process at contaminated time points are unobserved. We propose a Bayesian approach to outlier modeling in INGARCH processes, approximating the posterior distribution of the model parameters by application of a componentwise MetropolisHastings algorithm. Analyzing real and simulated data sets, we find Bayesian outlier detection with non-informative priors to work well if there are some outliers in the data.