Jana S. Stewart

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, U.S.A.

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin.

Defining and Characterizing Coolwater Streams and Their Fish Assemblages in Michigan and Wisconsin, USA

Abstract Coolwater streams, which are intermediate in character between coldwater “trout” streams and more diverse warmwater streams, occur widely in temperate regions but are poorly understood. We used modeled water temperature data and fish assemblage samples from 371 stream sites in Michigan and Wisconsin to define, describe, and map coolwater streams and their fish assemblages. We defined coolwater streams as ones having summer water temperatures suitable for both coldwater and warmwater species and used the observed distributions of the 99 fish species at our sites to identify coolwater thermal boundaries. Coolwater streams had June-through-August mean water temperatures of 17.0–20.5°C, July mean temperatures of 17.5–21.0°C, and maximum daily mean temperatures of 20.7–24.6°C. We delineated two subclasses of coolwater streams: “cold transition” (having July mean water temperatures of 17.5–19.5°C) and “warm transition” (having July mean temperatures of 19.5–21.0°C). Fish assemblages in coolwater stream...

StreamThermal: A Software Package for Calculating Thermal Metrics from Stream Temperature Data

Improving quality and better availability of continuous stream temperature data allow natural resource managers, particularly in fisheries, to understand associations between different characteristics of stream thermal regimes and stream fishes. However, there is no convenient tool to efficiently characterize multiple metrics reflecting stream thermal regimes with the increasing amount of data from continuously recording data loggers. This article describes a software program packaged as a library in R to facilitate this process. With this freely available package, users will be able to quickly summarize metrics that describe five categories of stream thermal regimes: magnitude, variability, frequency, timing, and rate of change. The installation and usage instruction of this package, the definition of calculated thermal metrics, as well as the output format from the package are described, along with an application showing the utility for multiple metrics. We believe that this package can be widely utiliz...