Jana Šimáková

Exchange-Rate Impact on the Industry-Level Trade Flows in the Czech Republic☆

Abstract The aim of this paper is to explore differences in the long term and short term relationship between bilateral exchange rate development of the Czech koruna and international trade flows with various groups of products. We consider the major trading partners of the Czech Republic (Germany, Slovakia, Poland, France, Italy and Austria) and selected product categories, determined on the basis of SITC classification over the period 1993–2013. We employ the Johannsen cointegration test to analyze the long term relationship and a vector error correction model to explore the short term effects. Our findings suggest that most of product groups related with exchange rate in the long term. A positive effect of depreciation was revealed for most of the categories. The short term coefficient revealed almost no relationship.

The Impact of Exchange Rate Development on Czech Trade Flows

Abstract The aim of the paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate development on bilateral trade flows between Czech Republic and its major trading partners. This paper explores J-curve pattern and relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows using quarterly data over the period 1997 – 2012. We employ a Johansen cointegration test to analyze the long run relationship. Short term effects are explored by estimating an error correction model and by assessing impulse-response functions. We reveal J-curve for trade with France and an inverse J-curve for Slovakia and United Kingdom. Volatility has no clear impact on trade flows.

Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Foreign Trade of Czechia

Previous studies of the effects of exchange rate changes on Czechia’s trade balance have assumed symmetric effects on the trade balance or assumed its linear adjustment. The aim of this article is to evaluate the asymmetric effects of the CZK/EUR exchange rate on the most important segment of Czechia’s foreign trade. The period from 1999 to 2014 was analyzed, and the data was disaggregated according to trading partner and product category. The results of the study show that exchange rate comovement with partial trade balances is mostly confirmed by employing both applied approaches. However, the asymmetry cointegration approach, which introduces nonlinearity into the model, reveals a more significant impact of the exchange rate on commodity trade between Czechia and its most important trading partners than a more standard model that imposes symmetry. Furthermore, distinguishing between depreciation and appreciation showed that the effects at the industry level are, in fact, asymmetrical in most industries when assessing Czechia’s bilateral trade with its most important trading partners.

Assessing exchange rate sensitivity of bilateral agricultural trade for the Visegrad countries

This article examines the short- and long-term effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral agricultural foreign trade for the Visegrad countries. Data used in this study covered the period from 1999: Q1 to 2014: Q3 and were based on the Standard International Trade Classification. To distinguish the long-term effects from the short-term ones, the J-curve theory was applied. A Johansen cointegration test and a vector error correction model were also used. The analyses showed that food, live animals, beverages and tobacco commodities were significantly connected with exchange rate movements in the long term. The effects of currency depreciation were ambiguous. However, an improvement in particular trade balances was observed in most cases following currency depreciation. The J-curve pattern was confirmed only for the Czech Republic in the trade of food and live animals with Italy and Poland and for Hungary in the trade of beverages and tobacco with Italy.