Jane E. Ihrig

Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Pass-through

Recent research suggests that the pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation has declined in many countries since the 1980s. We develop a theoretical model that attributes the change in pass-through (defined as the correlation of inflation with exchange rate changes) to increased emphasis on inflation stabilization by many central banks. This hypothesis is tested on eleven industrial countries between 1971 and 2000. We find widespread evidence of both a decline in pass-through and a decline in the variability of inflation in the 1990s. We also find a statistically significant link between measured pass-through and inflation variability. However, our efforts to correlate the decline in pass-through with estimated changes in monetary policy behavior are inconclusive due to poor estimates of policy behavior.

Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis

This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Toward that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries and use these estimates to test several predictions of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for that hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation is generally insignificant and often of the wrong sign. Second, we find no evidence that the trend decline in the sensitivity of inflation to the domestic output gap observed in many countries owes to globalization. Finally, and most surprisingly, our econometric results indicate no increase over time in the responsiveness of inflation to import prices for most countries. However, even though we find no evidence that globalization is affecting the parameters of the inflation process, globalization may be helping to stabilize real GDP and hence inflation. Over time, the volatility of real GDP growth has declined by more than the volatility of domestic demand, suggesting that net exports increasingly are acting to buffer output from fluctuations in domestic demand.

Biofuels Impact on Crop and Food Prices: Using an Interactive Spreadsheet

This paper examines the effect that biofuels production has had on commodity and global food prices. The innovative contribution of this paper is the interactive spreadsheet that allows the reader to choose the assumptions behind the estimates. By allowing the reader to choose the country, time period, supply and demand elasticities, and the size of indirect effects we explicitly illustrate the sensitivity of the estimated effect of biofuels production on prices. Our best estimates suggest that the increase in biofuels production over the past two years has had a sizeable impact on corn, sugar, barley and soybean prices, but a much smaller impact on global food prices. ; Over the past two years (ending June 2008), we estimate that the increase in worldwide biofuels production pushed up corn, soybean and sugar prices by 27, 21 and 12 percentage points respectively. The countries that account for most of the upward pressure on these prices are the United States and Brazil. Our best estimates suggest that the increase in U.S. biofuels production (ethanol and biodiesel) pushed up corn prices by more than 22 percentage points and soybean prices (soybeans and soybean oil) by more than 15 percentage points, while the increase in EU biofuels production pushed corn and soybean prices up around 3 percentage points. Brazils increase in sugar-based ethanol production accounts for the entire rise in the price of sugar. ; Although biofuels had a noticeable impact on individual crop prices, they had a much smaller impact on global food prices. Our best estimate suggests that the increase in worldwide biofuels production over the past two years accounts for just over 12 percent of the rise in the IMFs food price index. The increase in U.S. biofuels production accounts for roughly 60 percent of this effect, while Brazil accounts for 14 percent and the EU accounts for 15 percent. The key take-away point is that nearly 90 percent of the rise in global food prices comes from factors other than biofuels.

Tax Policies and Informal Employment: The Asian Experience

This paper develops and estimates a model linking tax policies to the size of the informal sector. Our results suggest that informal employment responds to the strength of enforcement and, to a lesser extent, to tax rates. Looking across sectors, we find service sector informal employment responds to both changes in tax rates and enforcement, while manufacturing sector informal employment responds only to enforcement. Quantitatively, changes in enforcement affect the manufacturing informal sector more than the service sector. These results are robust to various measures of informal employment and hold for other countries outside of Asia as well. Since informal employment (and hence output) is related to a countrys GDP, these results suggest that policy makers should consider the effect of their policies on the size of the informal sector. JEL classification: O17; O53; H26

Analyzing Federal Reserve Asset Purchases: From Whom Does the Fed Buy?

Asset purchases have become an important monetary policy tool of the Federal Reserve in recent years. To date, most studies of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases have tried to measure the interest rate effects of the purchases, and several provide evidence that these purchases do have important effects on longer-term market interest rates. The theory of how asset purchases work, however, is less well developed. Some of the empirical studies point to “preferred habitat” models in which investors do not have the same objectives, and therefore prefer to hold different types and maturities of securities. To study this more closely, we exploit Flow of Funds data to assess the types of investors that are selling to the Federal Reserve and their portfolio adjustment after these sales, which could provide a view to the plausibility of preferred habitat models and the transmission of unconventional monetary policy across asset markets. We find that the Federal Reserve is ultimately buying from only a handful of investor types, primarily households (which includes hedge funds), with a different reaction to changes in Federal Reserve holdings of longer-term versus shorter-term assets. Although not evident for all investors, the key participants are shown to rebalance their portfolios toward more risky assets during this period. These results can be interpreted as supporting, at least in part, the preferred habit theory and the view that the monetary policy transmission is working across asset markets.

Exchange-Rate Exposure of Multinationals: Focusing on Exchange- Rate Issues

This paper examines exchange-rate exposure of multinationals (MNEs) in light of detailed exchange rate data. Specifically, using MNE-specific exchange rates and accounting for the possibility that exchange-rate crises may impact a firm differently than periods of normal fluctuations, estimates suggest 1/4 of all MNEs had significant exchange rate exposure between 1995 and 1999. On average, significant exposure is estimated to be 0.68, indicating that a firms monthly return falls, on average, by 0.68 percentage points when the dollar appreciates one percent. This encompasses periods where there are normal fluctuations in the exchange rate and the average exposure is estimated to be 0.55, as well as crisis periods where the average exposure is estimated to be 2.8. Finally, results illustrate that MNEs operating in more than 20 countries (having more than 30 subsidiaries) have twice the exposure of MNEs operating in one country (having one subsidiary).

Expectations About the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

This paper provides a systematic assessment of the effect of the Federal Reserves asset purchase programs on Treasury yields, with particular emphasis on the role of market expectations about the evolution of the Federal Reserves balance sheet and of interest rates on the impact of the programs. We construct measures of such market expectations based on Blue Chip survey forecasts, Congressional Budget Office projections, and information from formal FOMC communications. Those measures are combined with a no-arbitrage term structure model, in which yields are driven by current and expected future private Treasury holdings, among other factors. This approach allows us to provide estimates of the term premium effects of the asset programs both at the time of the announcements and in the future as expectations about the economy and the Federal Reserves balance sheet evolve. Our results suggest that the program with the largest initial impact on the ten year Treasury yield as the first purchase program, which is estimated to have held down rates by about 40 basis points in early 2009, and the initial maturity extension program had the second largest estimated impact at its inception, pushing rates down by about 20 basis points in late 2011. Currently, we estimate all programs combined are holding down the 10-year yield by about 65 basis points, of which about one-third is attributable to the first purchase program.

The Dynamics of Informal Employment

The informal sector, which produces legal goods but does not comply with government regulations, is a functioning part of all economies, with a proportion of the labor force ranging from 17 percent in OECD countries to 60 percent in developing countries. Using a dynamic model that includes an informal sector, this paper illustrates the natural dynamics of the sector, describes how tax policy affects its size, and quantifies the costs of having it. Simulations yield movements in informal employment and output consistent with empirical observations. We find that the U.S. informal sector accounts for about 5 percent of U.S.labor hours and produces about 3 percent of U.S. GDP in steady state. Strategies for reducing the size of the sector are discussed. We find, however, that the distortion from this sector in terms of lifetime loss in an economys capital stock, is minimal--supporting those who want to keep the informal sector as a functioning part of society.

The Effect of Markups on the Exchange Rate Exposure of StockReturns

This paper examines how to properly specify and test for factors that affect the exchange-rate exposure of stock returns. We develop a theoretical model, which explicitly identifies three channels of exposure. An industrys exposure increases (1) by greater competitiveness in the market where its final output is sold, (2) the interaction of greater competitiveness in its export market and a larger share of exports in production and, (3) the interaction of less competitiveness in its imported input market and the smaller the share of imports in production. Using a sample of 82 U.S. manufacturing industries at the 4-digit SIC level, classified in 18 2-digit industry groups, between 1979 and 1995, we estimate exchange-rate exposure as suggested by our model. We find that 4 out of 18 industry groups are significantly exposed to exchange-rate movements through at least one channel of exposure. On average, a 1 percent appreciation of the dollar decreases the return of the average industry by 0.13 percent. Consistent with our models predictions, as an industrys markups fall (rise), its exchange-rate exposure increases (decreases).

Modeling Direct Investment Valuation Adjustments and Estimating Quarterly Positions

This paper takes an in-depth look at U.S. direct investment valuation adjustments. We develop a methodology to generate valuation adjustments at the quarterly frequency, which can be combined with the Bureau of Economic Analysiss quarterly direct investment flows to obtain quarterly estimates of direct investment assets and liabilities. Our methodology involves two steps. First, we estimate valuation adjustment models with annual data. Our models rely on variables that reflect terms used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in their data construction: exchange-rate changes, changes in the price of products, and changes in stock-market prices. Second, we apply quarterly data to the estimated models to generate quarter valuations and implement a procedure that ensures that the estimated valuations for the four quarters in a given year sum to the reported annual valuation adjustments. With this framework we consider how asset price shocks affect the net direct investment position and, hence, net international investment position.