Jane Mukarugwiza Olwoch

Climate change and health: on the latest IPCC report

www.thelancet.com Vol 383 April 5, 2014 1185 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report on March 31, 2014. This report was the second instalment of the Fifth Assessment Report, prepared by Working Group 2, on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change. In this Comment, we, as contributors to the chapter on human health, explain how the IPCC report was prepared and highlight important fi ndings. The IPCC reviews and assesses the scientifi c published work on climate change. As an intergovernmental body composed of members of the UN, the IPCC does not undertake research itself; instead it appoints Working Groups who assess the work. This assessment means more than simply to summarise the state of knowledge: Working Groups are asked to weigh what has been written (in both peer-reviewed publications and grey literature), to make judgments about likelihood and uncertainty, and to fl ag important emerging issues. The focus for Working Group 2 was mainly, but not exclusively, on what had been written since the previous assessment in 2007; papers were eligible for inclusion if they were published, or accepted for publication, before Aug 31, 2013. The Working Groups were required to highlight what might be relevant to policy, but did not recommend policies. The Fifth Assessment Report Working Group 1 reported on the physical science of climate change in September, 2013 (appendix). Working Group 3, concerned with mitigation (ie, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions), will release its report in April, 2014. The scale of the enterprise is remarkable—indeed, reports by the IPCC together probably represent the largest scientifi c assessment exercise in history. There are 310 authors and review editors in Working Group 2, and an even greater number of contributing authors who have added to the report from their areas of special expertise. In addition to health, Working Group 2 examined natural and managed resources (eg, fresh water, coastal systems, and food production), human settlements, and other aspects of wellbeing such as security and livelihoods. The report (30 chapters) will be published in two volumes, and includes integrated assessments of impacts and adaptation in nine geographic regions and an overarching summary for policy makers. Work on the Fifth Assessment Report began 5 years ago (appendix) and aspects of the IPCC process distinguish its assessments from other reviews and scientifi c publications. One diff erence is the substantial role of member states in determination of, in the initial stages, the scope of the reports and the membership of writing groups. At the beginning of each round of assessment, meetings organised by the IPCC decide on the structure of the reports, including the number of chapters and the topics to be covered, and then member states nominate potential authors. The fi nal decision about authors is made by a subgroup from the IPCC, the Bureau, on the basis of scientifi c merit and the necessary institutional and disciplinary perspectives for each chapter, seeking, at the same time, to achieve a balance of representation by gender and region. Once appointed, the IPCC authors work independently; government input occurs as part of the peer review process. However, the member states must approve and sign off on the fi nal report. Thus, the IPCC assessments are the outputs of many iterative interactions between scientists and policy makers. Another feature of the IPCC process is the intensity of peer review. There were four rounds of review for the Fifth Assessment Report, two of which involved hundreds of self-nominated experts and scientists appointed by member-state governments. Each round generated an enormous number of comments, questions, and requests for change. For instance, the IPCC received 1009 reviewer comments just on the second-order draft of chapter 11 (human health). Two dedicated review editors per chapter are charged with ensuring that the authors consider each comment seriously and, if they reject it, that they do so with good reasons. Both the comments and the chapter authors’ responses will be published on the IPCC website. The IPCC does not prescribe how chapter groups should gather and interpret the scientifi c work, partly because conventions and practice diff er among disciplines. Contributors to the health chapter used many strategies to identify relevant published work. Due to the breadth of the topic, including the range of health outcomes and exposure pathways, the chapter team decided that one systematic review would not be possible. Climate change and health: on the latest IPCC report

The nature of rainfall in the main drainage sub-basins of Uganda

Abstract A study of rainfall trends and temporal variations within seven sub-basins of Uganda spanning from 1940 to 2009 has been made. Rainfall climatologies are constructed from observational data, using 36 station records which reflect hydroclimatic conditions. Long-term changes in rainfall characteristics were determined by non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Sen’s T tests), coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index and drought severity index. Magnitude of change was estimated by applying Sen’s estimator of slope. Decadal variability of rainfall with marked seasonal cycles is evident. Temporal variability of drought patterns is detected. Variations in annual rainfall are low with no significant trends observed in the main drainage sub-basins. Significant trends occur in October, November, December and January. A noticeable decrease in the annual total rainfall was observed mostly in northwestern and southwestern sub-basins. Rainfall trend in the second normal of June–July–August (JJA) was decreasing in all the main drainage sub-basins. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Yue Citation Nsubuga, F.W.N., Botai, O.J., Olwoch, J.M., Rautenbach, C.J.deW., Bevis, Y., and Adetunji, A.O., 2014. The nature of rainfall in the main drainage sub-basins of Uganda. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 278–299.

Detecting changes in surface water area of Lake Kyoga sub-basin using remotely sensed imagery in a changing climate

Detection of changes in Earth surface features, for example lakes, is important for understanding the relationships between human and natural phenomena in order to manage better the increasingly scarce natural resources. This work presents a procedure of using modified normalised difference water index (MNDWI) to detect fluctuations of lake surface water area and relate it to a changing climate. The study used radiometrically and geometrically rectified Landsat images for 1986, 1995 and 2010 encompassing the Kyoga Basin lakes of Uganda, in order to investigate the changes in surface water area between the respective years. The standard precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) are applied to show the relationship between variability of surface water area and climate parameters. The present analysis reveals that surface water area fluctuation is linked to rainfall variability. In particular, Lake Kyoga sub-basin lakes experienced an increase in surface water area in 2010 compared to 1986. This work has important implications to water resources management for Lake Kyoga and could be vital to water resource managers across Ugandan lakes.

Landsat satellite derived environmental metric for mapping mosquitoes breeding habitats in the Nkomazi municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

Abstract The advancement, availability and high level of accuracy of satellite data provide a unique opportunity to conduct environmental and epidemiological studies using remotely sensed measurements. In this study, information derived from remote sensing data is used to determine breeding habitats for Anopheles arabiensis which is the prevalent mosquito species over Nkomazi municipality. In particular, we have utilized the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference water index (NDWI) coupled with land surface temperature (LST) derived from Landsat 5 TM satellite data. NDVI, NDWI and LST are considered as key environmental factors that influence the mosquito habitation. The breeding habitat was derived using multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) within ArcGIS using the derived environmental metric with appropriate weight assigned to them. Additionally, notified malaria cases were analysed and spatial data layers of water bodies, including rivers and dams, were buffered to further illustrate areas at risk of malaria. The output map from the MCE was then classified into three classes which are low, medium and high areas. The resulting malaria risk map depicts that areas of Komatieport, Malelane, Madadeni and Tonga of the district are subjected to high malaria incidence. The time series analysis of environmental metrics and malaria cases can help to provide an adequate mechanism for monitoring, control and early warning for malaria incidence.

Environmental factors and population at risk of malaria in Nkomazi municipality, South Africa

Nkomazi local municipality of South Africa is a high‐risk malaria region with an incidence rate of about 500 cases per 100 000. We examined the influence of environmental factors on population (age group) at risk of malaria.

Application of geographical information system and remote sensing in malaria research and control in South Africa: a review

This paper presents a review of numerous items of published literature on the use of spatial technology for malaria epidemiology in South Africa between 1930 and 2013. In particular, focus is on the use of statistical and mathematical models as well as geographic information science (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology for malaria research. First, the review takes cognisance of the use of predictive models to determine the association between climatic factors and malaria epidemics only in KwaZulu-Natal province. Similar studies in other endemic regions such as Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces have not been reported in the literature. While the integration of GIS with remote sensing has the potential of identifying, characterising, and monitoring breeding habitats and mapping malaria risk areas in South Africa, studies on the application of spatial technology in malaria research and control in South Africa are inexhaustive and have not been reported in the literature. As a result, a critical robust mal...

Industrial development zone and South African environmental legal initiatives post-1994: a quest for sustainable industrial development

Many developing countries are currently undergoing increased industrialization, which has accelerated environmental degradation. This study aims to examine South Africas industrial development path as a socio-economic strategy pursued along the rill-lines of sustainable industrial development (SID) in view of the post-1994 environmental legislative initiatives. An exploratory review guided the study analysis. As industrial development zones (IDZs), environmental sustainability research is virtually non-existent, leading to the poor understanding of this programmes role in SID. This study reveals that the government political commitment, 1996 South Africas Constitution and National Environmental Act (No. 107 of 1998) are key pillars reconciling the environment and industrial development in diffusing apartheid legacies. Non-compliances re-occur in industries outside the IDZs due to shortage of environmental monitoring inspectors and government priorities changes. Therefore, there is need to ‘green’ IDZ stakeholders for proper environmental legislation implementation. Finally, the study highlights new potential directions for research into SID zoning.