Jane Nautrup Østergaard

Physical activity and all-cause mortality across levels of overall and abdominal adiposity in European men and women: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Study (EPIC)

Background: The higher risk of death resulting from excess adiposity may be attenuated by physical activity (PA). However, the theoretical number of deaths reduced by eliminating physical inactivity compared with overall and abdominal obesity remains unclear. Objective: We examined whether overall and abdominal adiposity modified the association between PA and all-cause mortality and estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the years of life gained for these exposures. Design: This was a cohort study in 334,161 European men and women. The mean follow-up time was 12.4 y, corresponding to 4,154,915 person-years. Height, weight, and waist circumference (WC) were measured in the clinic. PA was assessed with a validated self-report instrument. The combined associations between PA, BMI, and WC with mortality were examined with Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by center and age group, and adjusted for sex, education, smoking, and alcohol intake. Center-specific PAF associated with inactivity, body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) (>30), and WC (≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm for women) were calculated and combined in random-effects meta-analysis. Life-tables analyses were used to estimate gains in life expectancy for the exposures. Results: Significant interactions (PA × BMI and PA × WC) were observed, so HRs were estimated within BMI and WC strata. The hazards of all-cause mortality were reduced by 16–30% in moderately inactive individuals compared with those categorized as inactive in different strata of BMI and WC. Avoiding all inactivity would theoretically reduce all-cause mortality by 7.35% (95% CI: 5.88%, 8.83%). Corresponding estimates for avoiding obesity (BMI >30) were 3.66% (95% CI: 2.30%, 5.01%). The estimates for avoiding high WC were similar to those for physical inactivity. Conclusion: The greatest reductions in mortality risk were observed between the 2 lowest activity groups across levels of general and abdominal adiposity, which suggests that efforts to encourage even small increases in activity in inactive individuals may be beneficial to public health.

Physical Activity and Mortality in Individuals With Diabetes Mellitus: A Prospective Study and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Physical activity (PA) is considered a cornerstone of diabetes mellitus management to prevent complications, but conclusive evidence is lacking. METHODS This prospective cohort study and meta-analysis of existing studies investigated the association between PA and mortality in individuals with diabetes. In the EPIC study (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition), a cohort was defined of 5859 individuals with diabetes at baseline. Associations of leisure-time and total PA and walking with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and total mortality were studied using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Fixed- and random-effects meta-analyses of prospective studies published up to December 2010 were pooled with inverse variance weighting. RESULTS In the prospective analysis, total PA was associated with lower risk of CVD and total mortality. Compared with physically inactive persons, the lowest mortality risk was observed in moderately active persons: hazard ratios were 0.62 (95% CI, 0.49-0.78) for total mortality and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.32-0.81) for CVD mortality. Leisure-time PA was associated with lower total mortality risk, and walking was associated with lower CVD mortality risk. In the meta-analysis, the pooled random-effects hazard ratio from 5 studies for high vs low total PA and all-cause mortality was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.49-0.73). CONCLUSIONS Higher levels of PA were associated with lower mortality risk in individuals with diabetes. Even those undertaking moderate amounts of activity were at appreciably lower risk for early death compared with inactive persons. These findings provide empirical evidence supporting the widely shared view that persons with diabetes should engage in regular PA.

Genetic Variability of the mTOR Pathway and Prostate Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation on Cancer (EPIC)

The mTOR (mammalian target of rapamycin) signal transduction pathway integrates various signals, regulating ribosome biogenesis and protein synthesis as a function of available energy and amino acids, and assuring an appropriate coupling of cellular proliferation with increases in cell size. In addition, recent evidence has pointed to an interplay between the mTOR and p53 pathways. We investigated the genetic variability of 67 key genes in the mTOR pathway and in genes of the p53 pathway which interact with mTOR. We tested the association of 1,084 tagging SNPs with prostate cancer risk in a study of 815 prostate cancer cases and 1,266 controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). We chose the SNPs (n = 11) with the strongest association with risk (p<0.01) and sought to replicate their association in an additional series of 838 prostate cancer cases and 943 controls from EPIC. In the joint analysis of first and second phase two SNPs of the PRKCI gene showed an association with risk of prostate cancer (ORallele = 0.85, 95% CI 0.78–0.94, p = 1.3×10−3 for rs546950 and ORallele = 0.84, 95% CI 0.76–0.93, p = 5.6×10−4 for rs4955720). We confirmed this in a meta-analysis using as replication set the data from the second phase of our study jointly with the first phase of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) project. In conclusion, we found an association with prostate cancer risk for two SNPs belonging to PRKCI, a gene which is frequently overexpressed in various neoplasms, including prostate cancer.

Metabolic syndrome and risks of colon and rectal cancer : the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition study.

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is purportedly related to risk of developing colorectal cancer; however, the association of MetS, as defined according to recent international criteria, and colorectal cancer has not been yet evaluated. In particular, it remains unclear to what extent the MetS components individually account for such an association. We addressed these issues in a nested case–control study that included 1,093 incident cases matched (1:1) to controls by using incidence density sampling. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% CIs. MetS was defined according to the criteria of the National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATPIII), the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and the 2009 harmonized definition. Among individual components, abdominal obesity (RR = 1.51; 95% CI: 1.16–1.96) was associated with colon cancer, whereas abnormal glucose metabolism was associated with both colon (RR = 2.05; 95% CI: 1.57–2.68) and rectal cancer (RR = 2.07; 95% CI: 1.45–2.96). MetS, as defined by each of the definitions, was similarly associated with colon cancer (e.g., RR = 1.91; 95% CI: 1.47–2.42 for MetS by NCEP/ATPIII), whereas MetS by NCEP/ATPIII, but not IDF or harmonized definition, was associated with rectal cancer (RR = 1.45; 95% CI: 1.02–2.06). Overall, these associations were stronger in women than in men. However, the association between MetS and colorectal cancer was accounted for by abdominal obesity and abnormal glucose metabolism such that MetS did not provide risk information beyond these components (likelihood ratio test P = 0.10 for MetS by NCEP/ATPIII). These data suggest that simple assessment of abnormal glucose metabolism and/or abdominal obesity to identify individuals at colorectal cancer risk may have higher clinical utility than applying more complex MetS definitions. Cancer Prev Res; 4(11); 1873–83. ©2011 AACR.

Physical activity and risk of breast cancer overall and by hormone receptor status: the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.

Physical activity is associated with reduced risks of invasive breast cancer. However, whether this holds true for breast cancer subtypes defined by the estrogen receptor (ER) and the progesterone receptor (PR) status is controversial. The study included 257,805 women from the multinational EPIC‐cohort study with detailed information on occupational, recreational and household physical activity and important cofactors assessed at baseline. During 11.6 years of median follow‐up, 8,034 incident invasive breast cancer cases were identified. Data on ER, PR and combined ER/PR expression were available for 6,007 (67.6%), 4,814 (54.2%) and 4,798 (53.9%) cases, respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were estimated by proportional hazards models. Breast cancer risk was inversely associated with moderate and high levels of total physical activity (HR = 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.86–0.99, HR = 0.87, 95%‐CI: 0.79–0.97, respectively; p‐trend = 0.002), compared to the lowest quartile. Among women diagnosed with breast cancer after age 50, the largest risk reduction was found with highest activity (HR = 0.86, 95%‐CI: 0.77–0.97), whereas for cancers diagnosed before age 50 strongest associations were found for moderate total physical activity (HR = 0.78, 95%‐CI: 0.64–0.94). Analyses by hormone receptor status suggested differential associations for total physical activity (p‐heterogeneity = 0.04), with a somewhat stronger inverse relationship for ER+/PR+ breast tumors, primarily driven by PR+ tumors (p‐heterogeneity < 0.01). Household physical activity was inversely associated with ER–/PR– tumors. The results of this largest prospective study on the protective effects of physical activity indicate that moderate and high physical activity are associated with modest decreased breast cancer risk. Heterogeneities by receptor status indicate hormone‐related mechanisms.

A risk model for lung cancer incidence.

Risk models for lung cancer incidence would be useful for prioritizing individuals for screening and participation in clinical trials of chemoprevention. We present a risk model for lung cancer built using prospective cohort data from a general population which predicts individual incidence in a given time period. We build separate risk models for current and former smokers using 169,035 ever smokers from the multicenter European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and considered a model for never smokers. The data set was split into independent training and test sets. Lung cancer incidence was modeled using survival analysis, stratifying by age started smoking, and for former smokers, also smoking duration. Other risk factors considered were smoking intensity, 10 occupational/environmental exposures previously implicated with lung cancer, and single-nucleotide polymorphisms at two loci identified by genome-wide association studies of lung cancer. Individual risk in the test set was measured by the predicted probability of lung cancer incidence in the year preceding last follow-up time, predictive accuracy was measured by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). Using smoking information alone gave good predictive accuracy: the AUC and 95% confidence interval in ever smokers was 0.843 (0.810–0.875), the Bach model applied to the same data gave an AUC of 0.775 (0.737–0.813). Other risk factors had negligible effect on the AUC, including never smokers for whom prediction was poor. Our model is generalizable and straightforward to implement. Its accuracy can be attributed to its modeling of lifetime exposure to smoking. Cancer Prev Res; 5(6); 834–46. ©2012 AACR.

Association between Mediterranean and Nordic diet scores and changes in weight and waist circumference: influence of FTO and TCF7L2 loci

BACKGROUND Several studies have shown that adherence to the Mediterranean Diet measured by using the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) is associated with lower obesity risk. The newly proposed Nordic Diet could hold similar beneficial effects. Because of the increasing focus on the interaction between diet and genetic predisposition to adiposity, studies should consider both diet and genetics. OBJECTIVE We investigated whether FTO rs9939609 and TCF7L2 rs7903146 modified the association between the MDS and Nordic diet score (NDS) and changes in weight (Δweight), waist circumference (ΔWC), and waist circumference adjusted for body mass index (BMI) (ΔWCBMI). DESIGN We conducted a case-cohort study with a median follow-up of 6.8 y that included 11,048 participants from 5 European countries; 5552 of these subjects were cases defined as individuals with the greatest degree of unexplained weight gain during follow-up. A randomly selected subcohort included 6548 participants, including 5496 noncases. Cases and noncases were compared in analyses by using logistic regression. Continuous traits (ie, Δweight, ΔWC, and ΔWCBMI) were analyzed by using linear regression models in the random subcohort. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in models. RESULTS A higher MDS was significantly inversely associated with case status (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00), ΔWC (β = -0.010 cm/y; 95% CI: -0.020, -0.001 cm/y), and ΔWCBMI (β = -0.008; 95% CI:-0.015, -0.001) per 1-point increment but not Δweight (P = 0.53). The NDS was not significantly associated with any outcome. There was a borderline significant interaction between the MDS and TCF7L2 rs7903146 on weight gain (P = 0.05), which suggested a beneficial effect of the MDS only in subjects who carried 1 or 2 risk alleles. FTO did not modify observed associations. CONCLUSIONS A high MDS is associated with a lower ΔWC and ΔWCBMI, regardless of FTO and TCF7L2 risk alleles. For Δweight, findings were less clear, but the effect may depend on the TCF7L2 rs7903146 variant. The NDS was not associated with anthropometric changes during follow-up.

Influence of dietary protein intake and glycemic index on the association between TCF7L2 HapA and weight gain

BACKGROUND Genetic polymorphisms of transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2) have been associated with type 2 diabetes and BMI. OBJECTIVE The objective was to investigate whether TCF7L2 HapA is associated with weight development and whether such an association is modulated by protein intake or by the glycemic index (GI). DESIGN The investigation was based on prospective data from 5 cohort studies nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Weight change was followed up for a mean (±SD) of 6.8 ± 2.5 y. TCF7L2 rs7903146 and rs10885406 were successfully genotyped in 11,069 individuals and used to derive HapA. Multiple logistic and linear regression analysis was applied to test for the main effect of HapA and its interaction with dietary protein or GI. Analyses from the cohorts were combined by random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS HapA was associated neither with baseline BMI (0.03 ± 0.07 BMI units per allele; P = 0.6) nor with annual weight change (8.8 ± 11.7 g/y per allele; P = 0.5). However, a previously shown positive association between intake of protein, particularly of animal origin, and subsequent weight change in this population proved to be attenuated by TCF7L2 HapA (P-interaction = 0.01). We showed that weight gain becomes independent of protein intake with an increasing number of HapA alleles. Substitution of protein with either fat or carbohydrates showed the same effects. No interaction with GI was observed. CONCLUSION TCF7L2 HapA attenuates the positive association between animal protein intake and long-term body weight change in middle-aged Europeans but does not interact with the GI of the diet.

Prospective study on physical activity and risk of in situ breast cancer

Background: Physical activity has been identified as protective factor for invasive breast cancer risk, whereas comparable studies on in situ carcinoma are rare. Methods: The study included data from 283,827 women of the multinational European Prospective Investigation into C7ancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-cohort study. Detailed information on different types of physical activity conducted during the prior year, such as occupational, recreational, and household activity, as well as on important cofactors, was assessed at baseline. Adjusted HRs for in situ breast cancer were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models. Results: During a median follow-up period of 11.7 years, 1,059 incidents of breast carcinoma in situ were identified. In crude and adjusted multivariable models, no associations were found for occupational, household, and recreational physical activity. Furthermore, total physical activity was not associated with risk of in situ breast cancer. Comparing moderately inactive, moderately active, and active participants with inactive study participants resulted in adjusted HRs of 0.99 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.83–1.19], 0.99 (95% CI, 0.82–1.20), and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.81–1.40), respectively (P value of trend test: 0.788). No inverse associations were found in any substrata defined by age at diagnosis or body mass index (BMI) status. Conclusions: In this large prospective study, we did not find any evidence of an association between physical activity and in situ breast cancer risk. If not by chance, the contrast between our results for carcinoma in situ and the recognized inverse association for invasive breast cancer suggests that physical activity may have stronger effects on proliferation and late stage carcinogenesis. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 21(12); 2209–19. ©2012 AACR.

Cross-Sectional Associations of Objectively Measured Physical Activity, Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Anthropometry in European Adults

To quantify the independent associations between objectively measured physical activity (PA), cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), and anthropometry in European men and women.