Jane Suiter

When do deliberative citizens change their opinions? Evidence from the Irish Citizens’ Assembly

Many claims have been made for the impact of deliberative democracy in generating change in people’s opinions, and often in predictable ways. It is claimed that people involved in deliberation change their minds on important issues. We also know that political participation and attitudes towards certain issues depend on political knowledge and civic education. To what extent are these linked? Do certain types of people react differently to their involvement in deliberation and is opinion change contingent on the varying capacities and knowledge of participants? Using data from a nationwide exercise in deliberative democracy carried out in Ireland we find some evidence that the ‘deliberative’ citizen, or at least the citizen most likely to shift opinion following deliberation, is under 65, with median levels of knowledge. We also find that heterogeneous groups are important for deliberation to be effective.

The Parties’ Manifestos

It has become the norm in parliamentary democracies for political parties to publish manifestos (or ‘programmes’) setting out their policy priorities for the period following the election. The common definition of a manifesto is that it represents the policy package a party puts to the voters at election time. There is something of a feedback loop here: research shows that voters use the parties’ policy positions as a guide to their voting intentions,1 while at the same time parties tack and change their policy positions in their efforts to woo voters. Manifestos are also a crucial component in the government formation process. Generally we find that the content of manifestos forms the basis for government coalition programmes and that parties are more likely to form a coalition if the policies expressed in their manifestos are similar (see also Chapter 12).

Understanding the 2015 marriage referendum in Ireland: context, campaign, and conservative Ireland

ABSTRACT On 22 May 2015 the marriage referendum proposal was passed by a large majority of Irish voters and the definition of marriage in the constitution was broadened to introduce marriage equality. This referendum is remarkable for a number of reasons: (1) it is uniquely based on an experiment in deliberative democracy; (2) the referendum campaign was unusually vigorous and active; and (3) the voting patterns at the referendum point to a significant value shift along the deep seated liberal conservative political cleavage of Irish politics. This article provides an overview of the background to the referendum initiative, the campaign prior to the referendum, and the key factors that drove voter turnout and preference. Based on a post-referendum survey, we find that while support for the government of the day, political knowledge, and social attitudes have the same effects as commonly found in other referendums, the variation among social classes was less prevalent than usual and door-to-door canvassing by the two sides of the campaign impacted through turnout rather than vote preference. The voting behaviour of the different age groups suggests strong generational effects.

Chieftains Delivering: Testing Different Measures of “Pork” on an Irish Data Set of Discretionary Sports Grants

Abstract Distributive spending by a state is often thought to have an electoral connection, and the work on pork-barrel politics whereby spending is geographically targeted is extensive. However, there has been mixed empirical support for the two main hypotheses: (a) that it is targeted at marginal constituencies; or (b) that it goes to party strongholds. Using new data on discretionary sports grant spending in Ireland we offer and test a complementary hypothesis that focuses on the responsible minister as primary decision-maker. We find that the grants are targeted at the responsible ministers constituency. Moreover we test these using three measures of the dependent variable: euro value of the grants, success rate of grant applications and the number of grants allocated per constituency. Our hypothesis is supported in all three models, something we argue gives greater credence to the result.

The Election in Context

This chapter describes how the election outcome marks an historic low in the fortunes of the traditional parties as the system has become very fragmented as all the traditional parties have recorded support close to or at low points in a historical context. The system is becoming ‘de-institutionalised’. The chapter goes on to consider the significance of the election result and governmental outcome for the balance of power between government and parliament, one that in a comparative context has historically been weighted very firmly against the parliament. Reforms promised or in place together with the new political realities could lead to more ‘consensual’ politics as defined by Lijphart, but that will depend on how all parties decided to operate this new system.

Political Campaigns and Social Media: A Study of #mhe13 in Ireland

Abstract This report documents the 2013 Meath East by-election through the lens of social media. It makes the point that social media can be used as a tool to examine political campaigns. Candidates use social media including Twitter and Facebook to market, to mobilise and to engage with their supporters and the general public. Utilising all the major party candidates’ Twitter and Facebook activity during the 2013 Meath East by-election campaign, this report finds that candidates vary greatly in their use of social media but almost all place a greater emphasis on marketing and mobilising over engaging. In addition, it examines the extent to which social media can deliver a preference vote bonus, finding a significant (but small) effect.

Who and What Affects the First Estate? An Analysis of Clergy Attitudes on Cultural and Economic Issues

Since the 1980s, scholars have come to appreciate the role clergy have in shaping the political attitudes and behaviour of the faithful. Through their leadership in self-selecting religious contexts, they are well positioned to translate religious values into political values. Given their potential as opinion leaders, this study investigates the dynamics of clergy opinions. Focusing on clergy in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, it assesses the influence of psychological factors on economic and cultural attitudes, while controlling for the influence of contextual and personal characteristics. This is done using a question-order experiment embedded in an original survey. There are three key findings: (1) clergy attitudes are sensitive to cognitive primes that elevate the salience of interpersonal and institutional concerns; (2) clergy are sensitive to the perceived preferences of their institutional superiors; and (3) social-psychological factors affect how clergy report their political opinions. This means that the social-psychological dimension should be considered important alongside existing frameworks for understanding clergy politics.

The challenge of reforming a ‘voter-friendly’ electoral system: the debates over Ireland’s single transferable vote

ABSTRACT In the 2011 Irish general election, held in the midst of the economic crisis, electoral reform was catapulted to the top of the agenda, with all of the political parties including proposals for electoral reform in their manifestos. The matter was subsequently given to the Irish Constitutional Convention to discuss. The Convention recommended keeping a modified version of the existing single transferable vote electoral system. This article reviews the Irish debate, showing how for the most part the impetus for electoral reform came from the party leaderships. By contrast, mass public opinion on the issue was at best equivocal. A curious feature of the Irish debate was how arguably it was strategically misdirected, at least on the part of the mainstream parties: the reforms being promoted by the elite were more likely to have weakened the position of the established elite than to have strengthened it.

Start Spreading the News: A Comparative Experiment on the Effects of Populist Communication on Political Engagement in Sixteen European Countries:

Although populist communication has become pervasive throughout Europe, many important questions on its political consequences remain unanswered. First, previous research has neglected the differential effects of populist communication on the Left and Right. Second, internationally comparative studies are missing. Finally, previous research mostly studied attitudinal outcomes, neglecting behavioral effects. To address these key issues, this paper draws on a unique, extensive, and comparative experiment in sixteen European countries (N = 15,412) to test the effects of populist communication on political engagement. The findings show that anti-elitist populism has the strongest mobilizing effects, and anti-immigrant messages have the strongest demobilizing effects. Moreover, national conditions such as the level of unemployment and the electoral success of the populist Left and Right condition the impact of populist communication. These findings provide important insights into the persuasiveness of populist messages spread throughout the European continent.

Refugees and Network Publics on Twitter: Networked Framing, Affect, and Capture:

This article constitutes a big data study of Twitter during the peak of the so-called refugee crisis in the period between October 2015 and May 2016. The article analyzed almost 7.5 million tweets collected through hashtags such as #refugee, #refugeecrisis, # flüchtling, and others. Theoretically, the article draws on concepts such as hybrid media, affective publics, networked framing, and voice. In the context of any increasingly hybrid media, we ask what are the frames on refugees that emerge on Twitter, who are the emerging elites, and to what extent do these frames represent alternative voices. Overall, the findings indicate that overall, the dominant frames remain the same, revolving around security and safety on one hand and humanitarianism on the other. The study also identified some explicitly racist hashtags linked to some of the security and safety frames. Elite politicians, media, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) represent the most prominent actors. In general, the refugee issue on Twitter was found to be subsumed and instrumentalized by political interests. Affect and networked frames are captured by and within a specific political position that we found revolving around the personage of Donald Trump and the increasingly strident anti-immigration voices in Europe. In these terms, the results indicate that Twitter’s contribution to the refugee debate is profoundly equivocal.